Suppose you hold Q
J
and the flop comes with two low diamonds. Ask yourself, "If I make the flush, how likely is it that I will win the pot?" Less-than-nut flushes, unless they are back-doored, are legendary for biting the dust in Omaha Hi-Lo.
Even more dangerous than making the third nut flush is making the second nut straight, because it is often harder to get away from. If you don't have the potential to make the top straight, even if you flop the temporary nuts, you are in danger. It is not unusual for a straight to be counterfeited in Omaha Hi-Lo, especially if you flop it. Many seasoned players will not play a straight aggressively until the river, unless they have other draws with it. (This goes against the grain of many-converted hold'em players who play straights fast.)
Another danger in second-nutsmanship is flopping the middle or low set when there are higher ranks on the flop. Nothing can be more demoralizing than making the second- or their-nut full house. In a recent Omaha Hi-Lo round, this scenario took place:
K
9
6
A
9
Player A: K
3
2
K
Player B: 2
3
6
6
Player C: A
J
A
Q
Player A flopped top set, Player B flopped bottom set, and Player C flopped an inside-straight draw, with an overpair of aces. The turn showed an ace, giving Player C top set. When 9s paired on the river, Player A lost a $200 pot—in low-limit play, that's a whopper!—with kings-full, the second-nut full house. Player B, hooked into the betting with his lowest-possible full house, left the table moaning about a bad beat.
However, was it a bad beat or simply bad judgment? Sitting in a later position, he called the pre-flop action with a weak hand. When Player A bet into him, he could have thrown in a comparatively inexpensive raise to probe the strength of his opponent's hand. Player A probably could have re-raised, at which point Player B could have dropped the hand without further loss.
If It's Possible, It's Probable
If it's possible for someone to have a higher-high or a lower-low than you do, it is probable that they do. Save this axiom in the hard drive of your computer brain.
It is not unusual for the nut-low holder to smooth-call the betting, an especially deceptive move. He does this for two possible reasons:
Low-limit Omaha Hi-Lo is a game of the nuts (meaning best low hand or high hand). If you don't have them, or a draw to them, you're in jeopardy (unless, of course, you're pretty sure that no one else does, either.) This is especially true for low hands, because they can be duplicated in two or even (disaster) three places at the table.
Many players enter a hand with A-2 'bare', that is, without other options. Therefore, calling with the second-nut low is often disastrous. Even the A-2 stands to win only one-quarter of the pot if someone else also holds it. More rare is a nut-high hand, such as the nut straight , being quartered by the nut-low hand. But it happens. In fact, everything incredible happens in Omaha Hi-Lo because the pots usually are multi-way, because each player holds a nine-card hand, and because the river card has the power to drown even the strongest of swimmers, unless they have an 'extra out.' 2
2. Reprinted by permission from "Omaha Hi-Lo Poker (8 or Better)" by Shane Smith, Poker Plus Publications, ©1996