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Saturday Micro

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Saturday Micro - Wed Nov 16, 2011, 12:52 PM
(#1)
73REX73's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 513


Player who shoves is new to the table, there is around 4000 players left and I am placed in the last thousand, I think 2500 cash but I am not after a min cash I need to be aggressive with my short stack to have any chance going deep, so I am taking coin flip situations, which I think I am in , I range my opponent on any pair and big aces pushing like this, maybe I can even leave out the biggest pairs would they shove aces for 50 big blinds.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.907% 51.23% 00.68% 636796716 8478066.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 48.093% 47.41% 00.68% 589379856 8478066.00 { 22+, AJs+, AJo+ }


What do you think is my thinking wrong or right, should I wait for a better situation?
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 01:06 PM
(#2)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
You DON'T flip your stacks in tournaments. Spots where you should take "flip at best" in tournament can be counted on fingers of one hand, and this is not one of them.
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 01:54 PM
(#3)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 867
Quote:
Originally Posted by Puciek View Post
You DON'T flip your stacks in tournaments. Spots where you should take "flip at best" in tournament can be counted on fingers of one hand, and this is not one of them.
When do you flip for stacks?
If you play TAG you find you get short stacked rather quick especially in Turbos.
So do you recomend fold, fold, fold then super Agg with AQ+ and JJ+ and hope for the best.
Say its early and you have a pocket pair UTG were is the cut off from fold to raise 77?
I know you need reads but if its less than 10 hands in and your UTG with a pocket pair what do you muck and which do you raise?
So REX has 88 you say fold. Were does it change as you wouldnt fold AA
JJ or QQ maybe?
Hope i didnt Hi Jack your thread REX.
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 02:04 PM
(#4)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckkky View Post
When do you flip for stacks?
If you play TAG you find you get short stacked rather quick especially in Turbos.
So do you recomend fold, fold, fold then super Agg with AQ+ and JJ+ and hope for the best.
Say its early and you have a pocket pair UTG were is the cut off from fold to raise 77?
I know you need reads but if its less than 10 hands in and your UTG with a pocket pair what do you muck and which do you raise?
So REX has 88 you say fold. Were does it change as you wouldnt fold AA
JJ or QQ maybe?
Hope i didnt Hi Jack your thread REX.
Whoever thinks that tag is still the right approach to tournaments gets what he deserves - barely any positive ROI (and -ROI when he climbs to low/medium stakes).

As on why you should not flip, I suggest grabbing one of books that teaches tournaments ABC, or just do the math yourself. This is not a cashgame, you cannot reload - once you lose that flip you are bamboozled. And there WILL be couple forced flips on you, we don't need to add volunteer ones to the mix (which will raise you variation noticeably, and also lowers your ROI).

And yes, raising 77 from UTG is equal to flipping your whole stack
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 02:16 PM
(#5)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
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I am not aware of any ABC poker books that teach lad play.. can you enlighten us?
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 03:00 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,142
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by 73REX73 View Post


Player who shoves is new to the table, there is around 4000 players left and I am placed in the last thousand, I think 2500 cash but I am not after a min cash I need to be aggressive with my short stack to have any chance going deep, so I am taking coin flip situations, which I think I am in , I range my opponent on any pair and big aces pushing like this, maybe I can even leave out the biggest pairs would they shove aces for 50 big blinds.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.907% 51.23% 00.68% 636796716 8478066.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 48.093% 47.41% 00.68% 589379856 8478066.00 { 22+, AJs+, AJo+ }


What do you think is my thinking wrong or right, should I wait for a better situation?
Yes, you are wrong. (sorry, couldn't resist!)

Taking flips is ok if you've been the first aggressive actor in the hand, and with that aggressive action you've "stuck" yourself to calling the rest of your stack. When you have nothing but an ante invested, 16BB is a little too deep to CALL OFF your stack in what you hope is a flip.

Let's look at your ranging...

You have the villain on AJ+ and pp 22+.
You derive your equity at slightly over 50% versus this range.
Good job on using poker stove to examine your play...

The thing you are missing though, is something called "The Gap Concept".

This concept comes from David Sklansky, and it simply says: "It takes a BIGGER hand to call a bet/raise, than it takes to MAKE a bet/riaise".

What does this mean for you here?

Well...

[-------------------------------------------]

^ This represents the range the opponent is on.

At the left is the bottom end, and at the right is the top end of that range.
contained in this range are some hands you are a big favorite over, some you are racing with, and some which have you as a big under dog, right?

You cannot know if THIS hand the villain holds is located here: [---|-----------------------]
on his range, or if it is located here: [-----------------------|----]

Whether or not you are a big favorite a big dog, or are racing matters which END of that range he is at.

Since you have only 1 way to win when you call, by holding the best hand at the river, you need to have +eV versus the TOP HALF (at least) of the villain's range in order to call.

Here is one last line example:

AA---------------------------------------------------------------------22 <- That is the bet or raise range
AA--------------------------------88 {---------THE GAP---------}22 <- That is the CALL range

If you call on a hand within "the gap", better than 50% of of the time your opponent will hold a hand which is an 80% FAVORITE on you, see?

Now...

What this all means for your ranging is simple...

Per poker stove, the range you have assigned to your villain's shove is a 9.5% range.

If you are willing to court a RACE on your 16BB stack, you must be at least 50/50 versus the TOP HALF of this range with your 88.

Versus a 4.75% range (the top half of the 9.5% you assigned him), your 88 has only 34% equity.
That is much LESS than a race, so you should FOLD.

Had YOU been the aggressive actor who moved all in, and had you assigned the villain with a 9.5% CALL RANGE for your shove, then you would have been courting the race you desire on your 16BB stack. But when YOU are on a call decision, you have to plan not for the "best case" of him being at the bottom of his shove range, you have to account for the chance he might be at the top end too...

...so this should have been a clear FOLD for you holding 88, even if you wanted to race a 16BB stack to chip up.

Hope it helps...

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Wed Nov 16, 2011 at 03:02 PM..
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 03:12 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckkky View Post
When do you flip for stacks?
If you play TAG you find you get short stacked rather quick especially in Turbos.
So do you recomend fold, fold, fold then super Agg with AQ+ and JJ+ and hope for the best.
Say its early and you have a pocket pair UTG were is the cut off from fold to raise 77?
I know you need reads but if its less than 10 hands in and your UTG with a pocket pair what do you muck and which do you raise?
So REX has 88 you say fold. Were does it change as you wouldnt fold AA
JJ or QQ maybe?
Hope i didnt Hi Jack your thread REX.
Not all races are equal, and it matters GREATLY whether you are calling, or acting first to raise yourself.

If you are calling, and you are courting races to chip up, then you need to be better than 50% versus the top HALF of the raise range of an opponent.

If you are RAISING though, you need to only be 50/50+ versus the totality of his call range to put yourself into a favorable spot vis a vis chipping up via a race.

See?

WHEN you raise to possibly find a race situation (or better) is when your opponent(s) who might call may do so on a range of hands against which your cards hold 50%+ equity against the totality of that call range.

Calling a raise is certainly NOT the same as making one yourself...
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 03:16 PM
(#8)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 17,618
(Community Coordinator)
Quote:
Originally Posted by 73REX73 View Post
Player who shoves is new to the table............. What do you think is my thinking wrong or right, should I wait for a better situation?
Two very conflicting opinions above and I would personally say that BOTH of them are valid in there own right. What's really important here is that we answer Rex's question to the best of our ability.

So here Rex is my penny thoughts on your thinking.

1. Yes, you do need to be aggressive with a short stack if you are not just after a min-cash, BUT, only when the right opportunity presents itself.

2. No, you do not need to be taking a coin-flip here BUT do get all the chips in if a better opportunity presents itself.

Personally, I would be considering the following in the hand you posted.

a) Villain is new to the table, I have no idea on his style of play and until I do I won't risk my tournament life here.

b) I don't want to get blinded off yet I still have 16 big blinds. I can afford a few orbits of tight play to pick a better spot and observe what type of hands this new aggressive player is turning over. When I get to 10 Bigs I'll get into a shove/fold range.

c) Villain has put HIS Tournament on the line here too. If he has a medium range hand why would he risk it in Middle Position with no information on the strength of Seat 7's hand or the SB's hand strength. If either of these called him with a premium there would be a good chance he'd be crushed.

Summary - Until we know a little more about the villian we have to credit him with a strong hand and one that probably has you beat in this spot. I would fold here.

Raiser
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 03:30 PM
(#9)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by roomik17 View Post
I am not aware of any ABC poker books that teach lad play.. can you enlighten us?
Any of them, starting with HoHs ending with Tournament poker by sklansky (both very old and outdated books, yet they teach you to play LAG). Unless of course by teach you mean "give you spreadsheets that will tell you exactly what to do in every situation.
Then none.
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 05:55 PM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 16,245
(Super-Moderator, Hand Analyzer)
BronzeStar
I'd rather be the one shoving, instead of having to call a shove. Due to that, I'd wait for a better situation.
You do want to be aggressive, but you want to be putting the pressure on your opponent, not them putting it on you when you don't have a premium hand.
 
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Wed Nov 16, 2011, 10:11 PM
(#11)
73REX73's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 513
 
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Thu Nov 17, 2011, 01:13 AM
(#12)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,142
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by 73REX73 View Post
the results really do not change anything I'm putting up regarding thinking about a call here in terms of the Gap Concept Rex.

Remember, that concept recognizes that 50% of the time the villain WILL have less than your 88.

The KEY to using the gap concept for your calling decisions are your intial RANGING thoughts.
If your ranging thoughts were spot on (they may be jsut SLIGHTLY skewed, because AJo tends to play slightly worse in an all in situation than KQs, so jsut thinking big aces and pp and ignoring KQs from the range might be a TINY bit off), then calling with 88 lef you with less than a race the 50% of the time he holds hands at the top of his range, rather than the bottom.

So in essence, you got "lucky" that this time he was at the bottom end...see?

...of course he got lucky and spiked a 4 outer to take the side pot that would have kept you in the MTT, but that is a different discussion altogether.
 
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Thu Nov 17, 2011, 01:44 AM
(#13)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,227
Quote:
Originally Posted by roomik17 View Post
I am not aware of any ABC poker books that teach lad play.. can you enlighten us?
"Kill everyone" by Lee Nelson, Tysen Streib and Kim Lee, recommends a L.A.G style of play, but also has advice for a TAG syle too.
They also have some good push fold charts for when you get to that short stack.

Every hand revealed is an excellent book to in which Gus Hanson takes us though his thinking as he plays a LAG style while winning the Aussie millions in 2007.

Hope this helps

Grade b

Last edited by Grade b; Thu Nov 17, 2011 at 01:48 AM.. Reason: Clarity
 
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Sun Nov 20, 2011, 04:49 AM
(#14)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,227
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckkky View Post
When do you flip for stacks?
If you play TAG you find you get short stacked rather quick especially in Turbos.
So do you recomend fold, fold, fold then super Agg with AQ+ and JJ+ and hope for the best.
Say its early and you have a pocket pair UTG were is the cut off from fold to raise 77?
I know you need reads but if its less than 10 hands in and your UTG with a pocket pair what do you muck and which do you raise?
So REX has 88 you say fold. Were does it change as you wouldnt fold AA
JJ or QQ maybe?
Hope i didnt Hi Jack your thread REX.
Okay this post scared the **** out of me cos i can play TAG now and thats about it.....

well i'm still playing a torny i'm in 56 place at the moment of 67 left it true


but 4210 entered and 630 payed so i think the TAG did me ok so far

i have VPIP 14 and PR 11 in 261 hand... when i bust will update..


Grade b
 
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Sun Nov 20, 2011, 05:05 AM
(#15)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,227
so am update ...i runa hud

at my table we have Vpip of 14, 9 , 14, 8, 35, 12 and 14 hmmmmm
intresting

the 14 is in 2nd palce overall the 35 in 20th

Grade b

Last edited by Grade b; Sun Nov 20, 2011 at 05:08 AM..