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will it even out?

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will it even out? - Mon Feb 27, 2012, 03:33 PM
(#1)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 254
lately i have been trying to work on my game to become a profitable player,i have been studying and checking out the training videos however even when im making the play these references tell me to make i seem to have no luck,im posting a few examples below from sit n gos,i know bad beats and suck outs happen,but over time does the percentage play win or do i need to get a horseshoe or rabbits foot or somethin

first example is big stack exploiting the bubble



this ones just simply being outdrawn, no big deal just wondering if it will eventually turn round or balance out a bit



these are just a few examples of many,im not whingeing just wondering if i have to change my game a bit any help is appreciated
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 04:35 PM
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holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
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Hi milehigh a little bit stuck for words for once lol, I personally think you need to look at the mental aspect of the game . My reasoning for this is your title alone, will it ever even out, the answer is no,poker can never be evened out you can only improve to find a winning formula, luck as only a small part to play ,it is truly about the decissions you make.
The first hand for example you could of quite easily folded and had enough chips to continue, the second hand why shove over the top with only 99 when it was easier to see a flop, its not so much what you are going to do with your cards, its what will the opp do?.
I suggest to not been to eager to get chips, all in pre flop is gambling and unless AA or KK try to avoid it unless you are really short stacked and no choice to . Choices , we control, we press the button ,no one can force us to press that button.
hope this helps you in some way mate, just my thoughts on what you are asking.
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 04:56 PM
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Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,056
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Mile, don't listen to Holdemace know it all, he has no clue

99 as 72% chance of winning against any 2 random cards as per PokerStove
Therefore out of 100 times you get 99, you should win 72 times

I just checked my stats, out of 50,159 hands, I got 99 211 times and won 76.78% of the time. So to answer your question, YES it will even out, you might lose another and then win the next 7

 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 05:06 PM
(#4)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
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its just an opinion sandtrap and you do not know what cards they have got so how you can say any random 2 ,that does not make sense so can you explain please.They could have aces for all we know.MIlehigh has not put info on the opps and wanted a general opinion, so thats what I give,just because its my opinion does not make it wrong or right thats why its called an opinion. im sure when more people have comenting milehigh will then make is own opinion,is that not the idea of this forum please tell me as its getting more and more confusing by the day.
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 06:11 PM
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Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,392
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I'm with Holdemace here for the specific examples.

The first one has you going all-in pre flop with a group three hand. Usual advice is to pass early and act with caution on an aggressive table. The reasoning is that there are five over cards, almost a third, that will beat you if paired. I would think the odds closer to 62% based on the number of overcards, but I'm not converse on the probabilities. Sandtrap provided an outside source which claims pocket 9's are favored by 72% in a one on one scenario.

The second example has me seeing you as over aggressive. Now I have no idea how the play has gone prior to this hand. Has the other player given any indications as to what he holds? If you pegged him as any-ace-winner, why not go for the cheap? A call might have saved chips for later or allowed you an exit when the ace did hit the river. Calling would be a better option since you knew it would be head to head in this hand. You can always ship later. He gave you a chance to see the flop, why not accept the offer?

The question is generic and I believe Sandtrap gave a great answer. One on one, the pocket 9's have a 72% chance of winning per Pokerstove. Over a longer stretch, your pocket 9's should match the statistical norm. Problem is, there will be times when you will lose. Sandtrap won 162 of the 211 times he held that hand. Let me say it in reverse. Sandtrap lost 49 times when he help pocket 9's. Though he doesn't say it, I'll bet some of those losses came in hands that duplicated the ones you posted.

Therefore, the answer is simple: It will even out eventually. The hard part is waiting for that eventually.
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 06:24 PM
(#6)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 219
you got it in good, you got unlucky, next tourney.

ps: a certain ace wins no more than 5% and that's pure luck,

aimho.
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 06:40 PM
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ketchup143's Avatar
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Posts: 277
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I don't have any problems with the first hand. the shove seems a lot weaker to me than the minraise on the second hand. thus just a flat call may be in order, although that's just a guesstimate on my end since i don't know how u read ur opponents.i think u may be the victim of results-oriented thinking in this hand.
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 07:10 PM
(#8)
a1379's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 417
both hand are short handed...

the first one folding 99 will be real bad move

witn 9 bb what do you expect aa kk qq? limp ?after 15 hand you will be blinded out .

good move
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 07:13 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi milehigh!

As long as you're making the correct decisions, over time, it absolutely will work out to the %'s. But... to do this, it has to be based on a LARGE number of trials.

99 against a random hand is a 72% favorite. Against a top 20% hand it is a 54% favorite and against a top 10% hand it is a 47-53% underdog.

The key is to know when to be playing a middle pair. Against a loose opp, the hand will play much better, against a tighter player, it can easily be the underdog.

Over time, the numbers WILL even out, but the one thing that could skew them is if you're only playing a given hand against a specific opp type... because then, their range isn't random, it could be a much tighter range (in which case you'd have to look at the % vs that type of range).
As long as you're looking at the odds vs the type of player that you're up against... it WILL go to those %'s over time.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Team PokerSchoolOnline - John - Super Moderator, Hand Analyzer


Triple Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 07:33 PM
(#10)
8JH4's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 37
edit

Last edited by 8JH4; Tue Jul 09, 2013 at 07:53 PM..
 
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re post - Mon Feb 27, 2012, 08:15 PM
(#11)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 254
first hand doesnt need really require a read on the player as i stated he is exploiting the bubble and his stack size nearly every hand and as you can see when we turn the cards over im way in front just unlucky, as for the second example possibly yes im to agressive and i dont know what hes holding,but again he had not much and got lucky,to be honest how often do you call holding ace 5 when some one shoves over the top of you, and as %'s go i agree with sandtrap, wether im holding 99,JJ or QQ they are still made hands and he still would suck out on me, i look at it like this if we are at a table with a deck of cards and you give me 99 and you take the opps cards and deal out 10000 hands from the rest of the deck how many times do you think they will hold up,i just posted these hands cos they were the most recent examples i had
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 08:30 PM
(#12)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 219
Quote:
Originally Posted by milehigh0874 View Post
as for the second example possibly yes im to agressive
not imo, what exactly could you do different ? call ? fold ??

i think both hands were perfectly standard and i doubt i'd play them differently very often.
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 08:57 PM
(#13)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,056
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Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
its just an opinion sandtrap and you do not know what cards they have got so how you can say any random 2 ,that does not make sense so can you explain please.They could have aces for all we know.MIlehigh has not put info on the opps and wanted a general opinion, so thats what I give,just because its my opinion does not make it wrong or right thats why its called an opinion. im sure when more people have comenting milehigh will then make is own opinion,is that not the idea of this forum please tell me as its getting more and more confusing by the day.
I thought you knew it all, especially with all your postings
Pre flop with 99, having no read on the other players, I will assume ATC, therefore random (all possibilities) and those are the stats. If you do have a read, therefore you can assume a % of hands. Lets say 25%, then you are 55.5% favorite.

But my point was on this
"My reasoning for this is your title alone, will it ever even out, the answer is no,poker can never be evened out you can only improve to find a winning formula, luck as only a small part to play ,it is truly about the decisions you make."

YOU ARE WRONG
It will even out

I read about your AA story, maybe, instead of copying and pasting, you really should read and learn about poker and forget about your opinion

 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 09:54 PM
(#14)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
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No offence sandtrap but did you look at this through the view of having a small BR, in the micros, every cent counts.
Or did you look at this from a big BR point of view there is considerable difference to consider.
I view everyting from a micro point of view trying to help people to tighten up, yes I agree if the person as a huge BR this is not a problem to shove 99,however if you are in the poor ranks sometimes you have to fold just to grind out a result, my opinions are good opinions and I stand by words, to even out you would have to live forever so the answer in my opinion is still no it could never balance out in our life time.
And like I said to you with no disrepect intended, opinions are meant to be, if we all had the same thoughts that would make us borgs, and we are not ,we are human after all.
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 09:58 PM
(#15)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 219
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
No offence sandtrap but did you look at this through the view of having a small BR, in the micros, every cent counts..
completely irrelevant !

except, you need to make good decisions even more, so, play as played.
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 10:16 PM
(#16)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,056
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Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
No offence sandtrap but did you look at this through the view of having a small BR, in the micros, every cent counts.
Or did you look at this from a big BR point of view there is considerable difference to consider.
LOL...are you kidding me, Small BR or huge BR, it has nothing to do with it.
Stats are stats, if you use PokerStove, it doesn't ask if you have a small or big BR. Your way of thinking is, if I have a big BR, go all in with AA, but if I have a small BR, then fold AA????????

BRM as nothing to do with folding, it as to do with playing within your means. You bring to the table a % of your BR or the buy-in is a % of your BR.

Another terrible opinion of yours
Please stick to learning, as you have lots to learn


Mox..... I need help with this......LOL
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 10:55 PM
(#17)
sydhollow97's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post

Mox..... I need help with this......LOL
Lol! as Phil Laak would say "I love you guys!!!!"
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 11:33 PM
(#18)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
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I will explain a different way for you, if mile was on a bigger buyin with better players the 63 would probably never shoved? the ace rag would of folded to the reraise? more than likely.
So at micros the thinking as to be based different because of this reason. Grinding out results and building a BR is what we suppose to have learnt from off here,mostly all your advice,so now you you saying forget that and just chuck in the chips regardless of reads and everything else to consider?.
 
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re post - Mon Feb 27, 2012, 11:45 PM
(#19)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 254
well sandtrap im 1 step closer lol






got to agree with them holdemace you have to play your cards regardless of br bottom line if you cant afford the buy in you shouldnt be in the game to start

Last edited by milehigh0874; Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 11:49 PM.. Reason: add info
 
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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 11:46 PM
(#20)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 219
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
I will explain a different way for you, if mile was on a bigger buyin with better players the 63 would probably never shoved? the ace rag would of folded to the reraise? more than likely.
So at micros the thinking as to be based different because of this reason. Grinding out results and building a BR is what we suppose to have learnt from off here,mostly all your advice,so now you you saying forget that and just chuck in the chips regardless of reads and everything else to consider?.
<in capitulation mode>

results and br come from making good decisions consistently,

the quality of your opps and their ranges are always part of the decision making, of course.

and in these hands the decisions were good, imo.