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Corkie's Poker Blog

/Aug/2011

Controversial Hand

By: CorkiePoker @ 02:24 (EDT) / 378 / Comment ( 0 )
Every decision you make when you're playing has an effect. Sometimes people don't like what they see, and they want to make derisive comments. This particular hand seemed to be such in a recent tourney. 

Setting the stage: I'm sitting in the hijack seat with 16BB, It's actually the last hand of level 8, the next hand will be taking place in level 9, there is somewhat more than half the field remaining.

So far in this tournament, I have only shown down two hands: KK and AJs. I have been active, but I've been getting good cards. AA, QQ, AK, AQ, AJ, 88, but none of them went to show down. I've also folded several times to a big rereaise: 33, 22 

Also note that every O/R I have made has been precisely 4 * BB. In the early stages I'm comfortable with this size. I'm a TAG player, I generally play good cards and I want to get paid off when someone calls with a lousy hand. In the beginning of a tournament, usually based on how fast the tournament plays I will pick a bet size for my O/R and stick with it until I get moved away from the table. I'm generallly using 2.2*BB to 2.5*BB for slow moving tournaments and 3.5*BB to 4*BB for fast tourneys. Once I pick an O/R bet size, I will not change it unless I change tables or some other significant event happens, e.g., the bubble busting. I believe changing a bet size gives away too much information.

In this game, my O/R  bet size is 4*BB; I have not deviated.

This first decision I make, and I make this pretty much as I see my cards dealt, is that I has just enough to try to steal the blinds: I'm in late position, a hand which plays well post flop, I've recently showed good cards for my raise. The person to my left has been quiet, the SB and BB have seemed disinterested lately, and the button has folded to several of my raises already: he missed out on AA, QQ, AK, AQ, but he's seen me showdown KK. On the other hand, in posts I haven't been involved in, he's shown down several times with a weak A and has generally been active. But, he's avoided getting into it with me.

I stay interested in the hand, and watch while the play folds to me. 

 I raise 4*BB,  the cutoff folds, the button shoves, the blinds fold. Making the pot 4135 with 1535 to me.



Now I have a decision to make.  The pot is offering roughly 2 2/3 to 1 odds. This is better than 2.5 - 1. At 2.5 -1 I need a 40% chance at winning to make a call worth it. If he'll shove A4o, he'll shove any A. I also expect he'll shove any pair, 22+.  

Against this range I am 40%, or 2.5 - 1. The pot is offering me better than 2.5 - 1 so if I accept this same bet everytime I'm offered it, I will win money.

On the other hand, there really isn't much difference between losing and folding. In both of those scenarios, I'm shoving the next good hand I get dealt. 

All in all, the odds favor a call. Not everytime, not all the time, but in this scenario, the odds are there.
It's a fast tourney, you have to take reasonable chances. 

I call.

The button doesn't have a sloppy ace. He's got a medium pair. He shoved cause he wanted me to fold. 

The flop shows a T, I hit top pair and my top pair holds up. Great result.

I've seen a BB fold a 1.3 BB bet. Never going to happen. When the odds say call, unless you have a very specific reason not to, you should call.
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