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/May/2013

Winning by numbers

By: EvokeNZ @ 03:53 (EDT) / 414 / Comment ( 4 )

I've seen a few discussions recently where poker players use various software tools to analyse their and their opponents games. Of course it'd be great to get reads on every opponent we play with, but online we play multiple tables and we invented computer for a reason right

As you may know I use PokerOffice 5 as a HUD tracker. Unlike PokerTracker 4 it doesn't keep automatic notes on players for 'mistakes' they make, and unlike HoldemManager2 it doesn't have a Leakbuster feature. 

But, in a way, that's kind of good because it gets to figure out the actual maths behind the madness. 

I've found a few articles on the PokerOffice website explaining statistics of winning players and ArtySmokesPS also sent me a spreadsheet. So this blog post is trying to figure out how to use the information with the tool I have to bring it all together into a winning combination. So as not to mar my stats with the craziness that is OSL, I'm focusing only on the 25c tournaments.

Overall I'm doing OK in these, but am leaking money in the blinds. I think I could probably also turn up the aggression factor a little bit.

Playing pocket pairs. 

I think I'm doing ok with these. I enter a lot of pots and overall am winning with pocket pairs. (Position 0 is button, 1 is SB, 2 is BB, etc)

Though it seems to me that I could raise more, especially from the Big Blind (position 2). I guess I figure "hey it's free" and play along until I see the flop, but this probably costs money if the opponents make better pairs.

I went through and selected one pair at a time to see where the leak at Position 4 was coming from. It appears the problem pairs are queens, jacks, and tens; I am raising 100% of the time with these hands in this position, so perhaps I need to ease up and limp along a bit more in early position.

Small to medium suited connectors

These hands are strong enough to go to showdown in multiway limpy pots, but they're no good for calling raises with. Massive leak for me here (this table is filtered for suited connectors excluding AKs, KQs and for calling a pre-flop raise in 25c tournaments):

Luckily, I've had very few hands in this situation, but plugging the rest of the leak will probably be wise.

Donk-betting

A donk bet is when you call a pre-flop raise and then bet out of position on the flop (ie, take the initiative away from the pre-flop raiser). The alternative is to check the flop to a pre-flop raiser regardless of whether you made anything, and if they bet, raise them up (ie, check-raising). Looking at my stats, I have never check-raised. Donk betting works for me because I indicate to the aggressor that I've made a hand and take their initiative away. Sometimes it works to control the pot - they're too scared to keep betting - and very often they simply fold, as, I assume, they were betting with rubbish that didn't connect. 

It does seem that I do it a bit too often from the Big Blind though and combined with the overall stats above it kind of makes sense - I just coast along for free until I make something and then turn on the aggression. 

It does seem to be costing me money though, so I need to relax a little. 

Live overlay

I have these set up not only to look at my opponents' stats but also at my own. I've colour coded them as blue (do more), green (doing great), red (too far). 

Here's what I have:

Player name (Number of Hands) /Stack as BB (0-10 is red, 10-25 blue, >25 green)

VPIP (0-14 blue, 14-15 green, 25-100 red)/ PFR (0-10 blue, 10-18 green, 18-100 red)/ BB/100 hands (negative red, positive blue - can always do more right )

Attempt to steal blinds (0-26 blue, 26-36 green, 36-100 red)

3 Bet preflop (0-4 blue, 4-6 green, 6-100 red)/ Showdowns (0-40 blue, 40-48 green, 48-100 red)/  Showdowns won (0-50 blue, 50-100 green)

I also have stats on aggression factor, fold to donk bet, fold to c bet, folded to raise when limped preflop, fold to bb and sb steal, but no colours for these. 

I've found this blog very interesting, but so far don't have enough of an understanding I think to apply the same strategy to the data I have on my opponents. For now, even keeping myself in check and knowing when someone is playing too loose seems to be a steer in the right direction. 

It'd be great if you can post some of the tips and tricks you've found around the numbers and how to apply them.

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