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Grinding away with chip, chair.... and hopefully + ROI


Breaking a Variance Run

By: JWK24 @ 15:43 (EDT) / 631 / Comment ( 3 )


After dealing with a three month variance run, I’m finally breaking out of it… and just in time too.  The variance also had no difference with the various games or what I was playing.  It effected my home game, 45 player sng’s, mtt’s, and every type of game (NLHE, ZOOM, LHE, LO8, HORSE, etc.).


The first tourney was winning PSOWCOOP-03, a PLO tourney.  This one surprised me, because PLO is one of my worst games.  I’m decent at micro limit O8, but not at PLO.

Next was PSOWCOOP-17, a 10 min level, 3k stack, NLHE tourney.  I was able to get a couple of hands early in it and kept parlaying my chips in it until I was the only one left.

After a couple coolers, PSOWCOOP-21, a limit event was the next win.  This one out of the three wins that I have so far is the best one IMO.  I play limit trying to make the best odds plays, not someone that chases hands, which I think gives me an advantage against a normal player.  Plus, most of my live cash game experience is with limit.  The final table was a very tough group of players, especially the final four.  When it gets down to Oriholic, !!!111Dan, TheLangolier and me…. I know I’m in for one really tough battle.  When it got to heads-up, I hit a couple of hands where I was priced in to draw on the river and I think that it must have shocked Ori.  He’s one that is NOT easy to bluff and these set up a couple of bluffs that I tried and was surprised when he folded.  Having a very good table image and hitting a couple of hands DOES pay-off!

I’m also returning to above normal numbers in my 45 player tourneys.  Through the first 600 of them that I had tracked, I was running about 42% ITM and an ROI of about 100%.  The variance run knocked set number seven down to 28% ITM and only a 29.1% ROI (was even happy to get the ROI positive, because after 72 games of the set, it was negative).  I’m now through 26 of my next set and am running at 65.4% ITM with a 247% ROI!


For live tables, I hope that this keeps up too, as I was stuck in the cooler when I played about a week ago in Cleveland.  Most likely, my next blogs will be about my experiences from two live tourneys that I’m going to be playing starting the 21<sup>st</sup>. 

I’ll be in St. Louis playing in two Heartland Poker Tour events, event 1 and most likely event 3, but if event 1 goes longer than two days, then I’ll play event 4 instead of event 3.  The first one is a $150 buy-in with a 10k starting stack and 30 min levels.  The second is a $230 buy-in with a 15k starting stack and 30 min levels.  These will be the first HPT events that I’ve played in, but with having played in three WSOP Circuit events and also playing against multiple HPT event winners from the live league that I played earlier this year, I feel that I should fit right in and have a shot at not only getting ITM, but making a deep run in them. 

Hopefully there will be some interesting situations in these tournies that I can blog about, like I did for playing the live league.


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