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Blog of the Jedi

/Nov/2010

When the odds mean something...

By: Jedi_Mastuh @ 22:26 (EST) / 242 / Comment ( 2 )
I know everyone sees those percentages on TV. When you shove all in pre-flop and get called, I know your seeing those beautiful odds stacked all too much in your favor, only to see the flop and your hopes of winning the hand go down the tubes.

Since the odds are pureley based upon probabilty, how accurate can they actually be? Well in my opinion.....they suck. The odds that mean anything are pot odds. You can justify a call with only 4 outs when your getting 20:1 odds.

Another thing...how many people actually "believe" that bad beats occur at the same rate ONLINE vs ACTUAL CASINO. I understand the thinking behind this but experience tells me its wrong. And it seems there are many people who feel this way as well. My first PSO league ended like this:

I was sitting around 27k chips about an hour and half into it. Youngmoney or W/E his name was limped UTG for 400 chips. I raised to 1650 with Jacks, everyone folds to him and he shoves for 6k. I considered the possibility he had aces/kings since he WAS UTG, but then I said to myself aloud "he could easily have 10's"....which is exactly what he had. So on the flop.....yada/yada/TEN. Flops a set and crushes me.

Ok thats not all that bad, it happens. The VERY NEXT HAND I get AK suited and min raise pre flop, same guy calls. Flop brings ace of Diamonds/kingof Diamonds/yada. He shoves for 13kish I insta call and he has AJ...jack of diamonds.....you know the rest of this story...runenr runner diamonds...beats me with a flush lol. All I could do was laugh at the absurdness(is that a word??) of what has conspired in these past 2 hands. So now im a bit steamed and luckily pick up AQ suited on the next hand. Perfect time to push since it appears to be a tilt push, same guy calls me....with q/4 off. 4 on the flop, goodnight to me.


Three consecutive hands where I was an 80% favorite minimum at the time I got chips in(probably higher than 80% but im not doing math tonight) and lost all 3 consecutiveley. I am sorry but that just doesn't happen in the casino. I mean maybe being a freeroll had something to do with it, but that doesn;t happen in the games I play in real life.

Anyway may the cards fall your way always and thanks for listening to my rant.
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