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Good Read - Bad Result

By: KumarLuv @ 16:15 (EDT) / 259 / Comment ( 2 )

(A hand from To Be or Not To Be: Day 5)

The most frustrating experience at the poker table is to make a different from standard decision because you have a good read, and then lose the hand despite the read being right. This happened to me in a $1 180-player SnG. 

I am the SB, and UTG makes a standard 2x raise. The action foldes to me. I have QcQs. 

I have seen the villain make 2x raise with Ace-Rag, and 3.5x-4x raise with mid pockets. I am assuming he will make the larger raise with premium hands as well. So, I decide it is Ace-Rag that he has and I call with intention of folding to ace on the board.

The flop comes 2h, 6c, 9c. 

I know I am winning, but he could have ace of clubs, so I make a larger than usual donk bet. Villain shoves.

I haven't seen this action from him before, but I am sure he is doing this with only 3 combos here: TPTK, second and third set. But based on his preflop bet there is just one posibility: TPTK. So I call. Dear reder, you already know the result from the blog heading. Here is a replay:

First I was a bit angry with the digital dealer. Then I thought, well, this was a +EV decision for me. If I repeat this over and over, I will make chips.

But that is not correct. +ChipEV is not same as +EV. Given that before the start of the hand I was at 25th position among 72-odd players left - folding to the shove was a better decision. The downside was the money I could have made if I had survived to fight another day. What do you think? Please do let me know in the comments. 


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