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Is Cosmo342 Catchable?

By: McTwain @ 16:54 (EDT) / 368 / Comment ( 0 )
People have been talking about the way Cosmo342 plays. His intent is not the win the tournament, just coast as deep as possible for extra points to maintain his No.1 status. To this end, Cosmo342 doesn't risk chips. He plays super-tight. I once watched him play Queens in the big blind. One person limped and Cosmo342 checked his blind. He continued to check to the river with the other player checking behind him. At no point was there anything on the board a person holding queens would consider a threat. Such tactics in any other game would be terrible. But Cosmo342 has created a strategy that allows him to lose all the battles and win the war. The question is: Can anyone catch him? Cosmo342 has 1,964.52 points as of July 27. He had 1,924.92 points on July 24 (4 days or 16 games). Simple math shows he is averaging 2.475 points per game or 9.9 points per day. Lets round that to 10. There are 4 days remaining to play. So that's another 40 points for an end of month total of 2,004.52 points. The math changes slightly if you go further back to July 22. He had 1,913.54 points then. This drops his average to 2.124 points per game or 8.496 points per day. I'll use the higher averages. I have 1,608.93 points as of July 27. Cosmos342's 2004.52 - 1,608.93 = 395.59 points needed to tie his future score, +1 to pass. So I need 396.59 points in 4 days. 396.59 / 4 = 99.1475 points per day. I think I might be able to play 3 games per day. 99.1475 / 3 = 33.049 points per game. That many points will require finishing in the top 60+ in every game I play. Possible? Yes. Probable? No. But it will be fun trying.
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