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Reficiamus

reficiāmus -1st-person pl. pres. active subjunctive of reficio
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A wise man once said that two cards that you're getting in Holdem are pure luck, but the game after it, how you are going to play with those cards is pure art. Well, I've obviously developed - a new kind of art.

 

 

 

 

AAs are standing as the most powerful pre-flop hand in Texas hold'em. Unrelated anyhow, but just by pure coincidence, in mathematics, it is also an acronym standing for "asymptotically almost surely". In number theory this is referred to as "almost all" - in poker AAs are NOT almost sure hand, but then again there is 85% chances for successful hand.

AAs are, as the strongest and the most popular starting hand, often called bullets - but my bullets are blanks more than they should be.

My fist week ever in the PS open league is now finished. I had some success - I have played some 30 tournaments out of which I have managed to reach TOP 6.25% more or less ten times, being around qualifyng TOP 200 for the Premier league since very beginning.

However, I am still far away of definite success in my first month of playing and this is strictly due to AAs, which caused me around 180 negative points!

Currently., I have 1923 and without negative (OK maybe I am overreacting a bit) I would have around 2100 - TOP 50 at this moment.

So, what's the problem finally? Here it is - short, but in details.

According to my PS statistics, I have been dealt 1879 hands. Fact No1.

Pre-Flop Poker Probability - 169 Distinct Starting Hands. Fact No2.

Of the 1326 possible combinations there are 6 ways of being dealt AAs pre-flop. The 6 combinations possible are Ah-Ad, Ah-Ac, Ah-As, Ad-Ac, Ad-As and Ac-As. 6 / 1326 = 0.00435 or 221-to-1. So the chances of being dealt AAs are 221:1 against.  It is fair to say, the probability is the same like for any other pair. Fact No3.

So, math says that I was supposed to get AAs approximately 8 times (1879/220) in total since the very beginning of the league. This was the case, more or less, as far as I could remember. the problem is - I have lost more then HALF OF IT!

The math says that I should have won at least 6 or 7 out of those 8 hands, but I have managed to win THREE only.

How? I have slow played and got busted on the river?

No.

I have played against 8 players?

No.

Let me show you. Hands are in chronological order, but I will show you each, because I managed to lose amusingly in almost every scenario.

Now, all of advices that I've been reading are saying one should RAISE with AAs. OK. I got it. I have raised. And this is what happens.

FAIL No. 1 - vs. 89s, 1 player. My chances preflop are 78%. (See Odds calculator)

FAIL No.2 - vs. 2 players

FAIL No.3 - vs. 1 player -  JK off !!!!! 86% chances to win!

FAIL No.4 - vs. 3 players - 70% chances to win.

And finally this morning - again! 88% chances to win all the way through the turn.

Finally, the weirdest thing is that all of those hands that I have lost were happening at 7AM CET PSO OL tournaments (5AM UTC - 1AM ET). Moreover, twice it happened when I was supposed to get for the third consecutive time into TOP 400 and therefore earn The Big Bang ticket. I am not even trying to bother you by swearing that I had two more more losses (the beginning of the League) but I didnt save it because I never realised that this could happen.

Therefor, to conclude -  1. I am about to start avoiding these early in the morning tournaments from now on , 2. keep playing my AAs, since the probability theory says that form now on I should win at least 31 out of 32 AA preflops in the future (then it would come to 34 out of 40 hands won, which is supposed to be according to math) and finally - 3. I hope that I could get some Big bang stamp for this one, as a kind of bad beat jackpot , since my third consecutive TOP 400 was ruined  couple of times by those failed AAs - Asymptotically almost surely.

Any similar experiences or advices? Should I play cowboys only from now on

P.S.I promise I will play all-in whenever I getr those AAs in the Big bang, if playing against one player.

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