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Variance stinks

By: Ov3rsight @ 06:07 (EST) / 70 / Comment ( 2 )

Today has once again been one of those days. You know what I mean: the days when literally nothing seems to go right. The days when you're playing pretty well and have nothing to show for. The days when You play AKoff, flop nothing, c-bet and get called, then hit your K on the turn and your A on the river only to find out the other guy called your preflop bet with 85 suited and flopped a straight. It happens. It's just extremely annoying that it happens on the bubble of a SnG. The last few days it's been like that. Everytime I get down to 4 players I bust out against ugly suckouts. It doesn't matter how much of a hand I have, whether it'AK vs 85, AQ vs A10, or 33 vs J5 - the other guy just keeps on sucking out.

So as the year nears its end, I'm wandering off again, pondering whether or not I should actually keep playing these games. I'm doing well at the cash games, and when they suck out like that, the cash games have one big advantage: they are making bad plays, and you actually have the chance to win your money back because of it. At the SnGs, it's back to square one with no chance at all to extract value from the fish.

Or maybe I should just stop playing SnGs on the weekends. Too many fish coming out to play, and not enough room to get drawn out on in the SnGs. Or maybe it's just my mindset after 4 suckouts in a row. Or maybe it's the seeing that for the first time since I started playing, my profits for the SnGs are now in the negative. I've gotten close, but always manage to make a few good scores and get back up. Right now, It's definitely going in the wrong direction. To counter that, I'm playing a tight style. Open up a bit tighter, not c-bet as often when I completely whiff, and don't follow through when you feel they have it. But still, you don't hit the flop that often (then why does the opponent do hit...) and how are you supposed to win when they fold immediately when you do hit, and it gets folded around when you have pocket Aces in the Big Blind?

I doubt there's a big conspiracy going on, but I really would like to see some results of my play. I know who the fish are at the table, I know how to take advantage of them, but they keep drawing out on my good hands. I guess it's just all due to variance.

Variance stinks, but we all know that.

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