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Ovalman's Micro grind

Part time Poker Nut, Astro Nut and a lover of Glentoran FC.
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The Gambler Fallacy

By: Ovalman @ 07:32 (EDT) / 1148 / Comment ( 4 )

I've always understood that the RNG on any site is just that. It's truly random, there's no way to predict what comes next and the game is fair for all. Recently I fell foul of the gamblers fallacy that future cards were due to me because like everyone else I suffered at the hands of variance.

I even tweeted about it @ovalman "Net winnings -$18, $EV +$16.98. $EV is if you had the right amount of luck. Sickening but I'm playing well. #variance #bankrollmanagement" but I now realise it was me that was the problem. I started calling all in's when I was a 40/60 shot, as my thinking was I was due to win at least 40% of the time.

The crunch came when I called an all in on the bubble with 77 against a tight passive player. He had AKs and although I was ahead, it was a fold. It's fine to shove 77 in this spot but not to call. I'm always flipping at best and usually much worse.

Of course this is totally wrong. It was true that I wasn't getting the best part of luck and usually at critical stages in a tournament (on the bubble or heads up) but I noticed my results went from bubbling down to 6ths in 9 man STTs. It did affect my game. While I have no control over the luck element, I do have control on what I play and how I play it. I think I've cured my problem, I am playing well and I know the results will eventually go my way.


My new PC is up and running. I've still a few additions like a SSD to put in but I'm playing on a bigger screen and can add more tables. As usual I'm tweaking things like my HUD but I did that on my laptop. Luckily I got it set up as my laptop finally went kaput. I'd still like a decent spec laptop but the PC is my grinding station.

I'm playing another $120 satellite tonight for another $1400 package (I've already won 1) I'm under no pressure, these stakes don't scare me and as it's a deep stack slow structure I think I'll do pretty well. There's 3 packages up for grabs and I suspect there will be an overlay.


I've a few other interests besides poker. I love Astronomy, I read and follow as much abut the subject as I can and I go observing the odd night. I've a small telescope, a Celestron 102SLT that I use but I'm pretty light polluted close to the centre of Belfast. I also grow my own veg and brew my own beer, I'm just about to bottle 40 pints of Stout hic!

Another one of my loves is following Glentoran FC. We are the minnows of Europe, the standard isn't great but its exiting to watch and I base my social life around the club. We only play in front of an average crowd of 1,000 but I love going to watch them. My username is afer their home ground which is called the Oval. I'm not fat or round honest!

Yesterday was a big day for my club. We reached the Irish Cup Final against the league winners Cliftonville and 10,000 fans went to the match (where are they every other week). We trailed 1-0 at half time, drew level over 90 minutesand then scored twice in extra time to clinch the cup. My club is almost bust but now we get cup money along with a place in next seasons Europa Cup. It was truly magical, I just wish it was like this every week.

Good luck at the tables.


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