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Ovalman's Micro grind

Part time Poker Nut, Astro Nut and a lover of Glentoran FC.
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I'll come back to player types in a future blog but I read a great article****** (had to remove link if anyone wants it PM me) and found a useful calculator into the bargain.

Variance is the "luck" element in Poker. You may have heard it before but poker is a short term game of luck but a long term game of skill but luck always plays a part in every hand.

Variance has hit me hard over the past week and in return I've went on a sort of tilt and compounded my losses by making poor decisions and bad calls. I can only blame myself for these decisions but I can fix that part of my game. The RNG has no memory but luck usually irons itself out eventually, maybe I've had too much luck of late running at 20%+ on one other site even though my average ROI is around 12% on here.

I did glean some hope from the article and he linked to another great web page which calculates variance.

I've mentioned before that my MTT ROI on Pokerstars truly sucks. This is despite having several 4 figure scores on other site's. I filtered Sharkscope for my MTTs only

Not very pretty and quite the fish. Thankfully my STT ROI more than makes up for this and TBF Sharkscope doesn't track games in the Private Tab - I've won several of these including the prestigoius PSOP main event and the Pokercast (twice) so all is not lost.

When I plugged my numbers into the variance calculater I was quite surprised.

That dot is where I stand atm. That's 38% of the time I should be getting the same results. My first graph looks abysmal but that 2nd graph gives me some real hope.

38% is a lot higher than I expected. I'm sure I've played really badly in some spots but in many cases it's just down to the luck aspect. 1 in 100 times I'll be $3k in profit while just under 70% of the time I'll break even.

Given enough games I'm sure I can turn this situation around. 500 games is not really that big of a sample so while I'm frustrated it takes a lot of the worry away. Time and good decisions will change my first graph and I know that big score will come some day. Lets hope it's sooner rather than later.


I maintained Chrome Star on Pokerstars and even cashed in the Chrome VIP game but I haven't been playing well and am down $50 since the start of the year. As I won't deposit I'll just have to adopt striciter bankroll management and build it back again.

Elsewhere I've lost my pretty graph

In a way I'm annoyed but in another way I'm OK with it. It was caused on Friday playing games I got free tickets for so it never hurt my balance too much. I also lost a €20 free satellite ticket which is a big drop considering I'm only bankrolled for €2 and €5 games. The Friday games have a load of added cash and I know long term playing in these will be +EV for me. I'll get to $1k sooner rather than later.

My balance is $220 on the site but was as high as $254 at one point.

I never played any $10 games on a third site. Just as well seeing my form on Pokerstars and above.

Until next time, good luck at the tables


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