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Plastic Pearl

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Hand strength at showdown

By: PlasticPearl @ 10:29 (EST) / 382 / Comment ( 3 )

In November I posted a blog looking at hand types and how profitable they were. Today I imported all my stats for the year into PokerTracker 4, and pulled up a report showing my hand strength when I went to showdown, along with my results. This might be of interest!

High Card

Remember all those times yiou went to showdown with an ace high, convinced that the villain is bluffing? Often with an AK which missed but you didn't want to laydown? I took 302 of those to showdown, but it only won 15% of the time, losing me -1445 bb/100, and $109! Those hero calls are not worth it in the long run.

One Pair

The hand I showed down most frequently was a solitary pair, which I showed down 1168 times. It only won 37% of the time, and I lost 933 bb/100 in my one pair hands at showdown, -$267!

Two Pair

Well this gets better right? I showed down 797 and won 53% of the time so I must be in the profit. Wrong! I lost 535 bb/100 and $121. This means simply that I overvalued the strength of it in many situations and played big pots. In fact, on many boards, a two pair should still try to keep the pot small. If someone wants to play a big pot against you on a wet board and you only hold two pair, you may well be beat.

Three of a Kind

Here comes the profit. Showndown 159 times, won 66%, for 1599 bb/100 and $46. I would wager that the majority of that profit came on sets, rather than a paired board.


103 times for an 84% win percentage, 2022 bb/100 and $50.41. Again, I haven't run the separate report, but one would imagine the times I lost I overplayed a baby straight, or even got cute when a flush was on the board.


Only shown 104 times at showdown. Out of 54k hands!! All those times you play weak suited cards to hit a flush, yet I only got to show down a flush once every 500 hands. Sure, I probably made more flushes than that, but how often do you get full value for them? And they are vulnerable unless you hold the nuts: my flush only won 79% of the time, for 2343 bb/100 and $53.57.

Full House

My power hand. Shown 119 times (more often than a flush, people do not instinctively think full house when the board pairs), for 3723 bb/100 and $116.34. Still only won 85% though: sometimes you will need to fold these.

Four of a Kind

I only had 16 of these in 54k hands that got to showdown. 6779 bb/100 for $23.77 is nice. But they only won 87%: they can be beat! Looking in my hand history it got beat twice. Once the board was 9999J, but the villain had an ace kicker. The second time I hti quads 5s, but the villain got a straight flush.

And I only had one straight flush, for which I got my villain's stack when he had an ace high flush.

So actually, three of a kind or better are the only hands which made me a profit over the course of the year. I only got 502 of these hands over 54k: or once every 107 hands. Not to say top pair and two pair can't win you money if played better than I play them. But if you're going to have to wait 107 hands to show down a 'banker', you will need to learn patience (as do I!).

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