JavaScript must be enabled for Sign In.
Please check your broswer settings.

Home \ Community \ Blogs \

TheLangolier's blog

/Jul/2014

An MTT Spot - Steal Shoving on 10bb

By: TheLangolier @ 12:33 (EDT) / 3 / Comment ( 6 )

In my last blog I wrote a piece about patience in tournament poker.  I talked about how practicing patience does not mean waiting for “real hands”, but rather for good situations.  I promised to follow that blog with an analysis of a hand I played that I felt was a good situation at the time.  Was it?   Let’s find out…

This hand comes from a $215 buy in MTT I played recently.  It was my bust hand, and it involved me shoving Q2 from the SB into the BB, getting called, and losing.  To the casual observer it might look like I lost patience/was willing to gamble.  That was definitely not the case, I can assure you.  I felt at the time it was a +EV situation to steal the blinds and antes.  Whether or not that was an accurate assessment is another story, and I like to review these spots after the fact to help refine my decisions in future similar situations. 

First, here is the hand:

1,500/3,000 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 96,701
UTG+1: 48,800
UTG+2: 87,755
MP: 74,330
MP+1: 151,497
CO: 33,530
BTN: 73,327
Hero (SB): 30,533
BB: 73,109

9 players post ante of 300, Hero posts SB 1,500, BB posts BB 3,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 7,200) Hero has 2d Qs
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 30,233 and is all-in, BB calls 27,233

Flop : (63,166, 2 players) Ac As Th

Turn : (63,166, 2 players) 7s

River : (63,166, 2 players) 8d

Hero shows 2d Qs (One Pair, Aces)
BB shows Ad Jd (Three of a Kind, Aces)
BB wins 63,166

So let’s get to the details of why I shoved here.  The BB player was tight, and had not made any light calls or even loose shoves (that were shown), and we’d been at this table together for 63 hands (they were playing 14/13 during this time, and play 18/15 over a larger sample from prior MTT’s).  So I felt I had a lot of fold equity here.  I better feel this way to be shoving, since I’m not shoving on the power of the mighty Q2. 

I estimated in game he would call ~15% of the time.  So now it’s time to do some math and see if this shove is gaining me or losing me chips.  Then decide, if it is in fact gaining chips, if that gain is worth the risk of my tournament life or not. 

There is 7200 chips in the pot preflop.  If he folds 85% of the time, then the fold equity is worth +6120 (7200*.85)

The other 15% of the time I get called and will be an equity underdog to win the pot.  Plugging the range into an equity calculator I’m about a 72-28 dog when called by this range.  So 72% of the time I will lose my remaining 28733, and 28% of the time I will gain 34443 (his call off+blinds/antes).  So the chip EV looks like this:

EV=(7200*.85)+.15*[(34443*.2-(28733*.72)]
EV=6120+.15[9644-20688]
EV=6120-1657
EV= +4463 chips

So, if my estimation of him folding this often is accurate, then the shove shows a long term approximation of adding about 1.5 big blinds to my stack. That’s not bad, especially considering I start the hand with only 10 big blinds.  I can expect to bust out of the tournament about 11% (.15*.72) of the time (a little less than 1/9th of the time). 

After the bust out I felt like maybe I should have passed on this spot.  Hindsight is 20/20 of course.  85% of the time I would have thought nothing of it, simply taking the blinds/antes.  And 4% of the time I would have had a double up that I may have later referred to as a key lucky spot that propelled me to a big finish.

After a critical analysis of the hand, again if my assumption about his calling range is correct, I feel better about taking this spot.  8/9 times I’m going to get a good result, and I think that 1.5bb increase to a stack that will be under 10bb’s if I fold, is worth that risk.

In order to comment, you must login or register.
Take Quiz
New here? Take our Poker Assessment to start your education.
already a member? sign in here
JavaScript must be enabled for Sign In.
Please check your broswer settings.
Learn From basics to advanced strategy
Practice Improve your skills with our trainers
Win! Establish yourself as a winning player
/Featured Promotions/
Progressive Jackpot Progressive Jackpot Playing our new 'Scratch & Match' game is free and very easy. If you match 3 symbols you win a prize!!!! View details
Earn 10 Tournament Tickets Today! Earn 10 Tournament Tickets Today! Invite your friends to join Poker School and you could earn up to 10 tournament tickets as a reward! View details

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com