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Tonk Shuffle

/Mar/2012

Tonk Shuffle $1.50 Fifty50 2 Shot Challenge

By: Tonk Shuffle @ 00:50 (EDT) / 422 / Comment ( 1 )

My BR has been ground up from $0 to $50. I am treating my self to a shot at bigger stakes. The deal is this:
I will start with a $3.00 BR (2 shots.) I will play Fifthy50s as long as my BR stays above $50. Hopefully this challenge lasts more than a few hours!:lol: Goal: Profit & 20 VPPs.

#1....$3.00 - 1.50 + 2.87 = $4.37
#2....$4.37 - 1.50 + 1.84 = $4.71
#3....$4.71 - 1.50 + 2.20 = $5.41
#4....$5.41 - 1.50 + 2.63 = $6.54
#5....$6.54 - 1.50 + 0.00 = $5.04
#6....$5.04 - 1.50 + 3.23 = $6.77
#7....$6.77 - 1.50 + 2.82 = $8.09
#8....$8.09 - 1.50 + 4.73 = $11.32
#9..$11.32 - 1.50 + 2.10 = $11.92
10..$11.92 - 1.50 + 0.00 = $10.42
11..$10.42 - 1.50 + 0.00 = $08.92
12..$08.92 - 1.50 + 3.37 = $10.79 (PL Omaha misclick lol)
13..$10.79 - 1.50 + 0.00 = $09.29
14..$09.29 - 1.50 + 1.78 = $09.57
15..$09.57 - 1.50 + 2.32 = $10.39
16..$10.39 - 1.50 + 0.00 = $08.89 (harsh variance):cry:
17..$08.89 - 1.50 + 2.91 = $10.30
18..$10.30 - 1.50 + 0.00 = $08.80
19..$08.80 - 1.50 + 0.00 = $07.30                ITM: 16/25   64%
20..$07.30 - 1.50 + 0.00 = $06.80
21..$06.80 - 1.50 + 2.94 = $07.24                ROI: 18.11%
22..$07.24 - 1.50 + 3.41 = $09.15
23..$09.15 - 1.50 + 1.82 = $09.47                PROFIT: +$6.79
24..$09.47 - 1.50 + 3.32 = $11.29
25..$11.29 - 1.50 + 0.00 = $09.79                 VPP: 20.75

This is a very small sample size, but these results fall in line with my expectations and predictions posted in the forum. 8)

Games 10-20 have were bad. Lost with AK 7 times, QQ twice, JJ, 10 10; the premium hole cards did more harm then good. Also could not win with AQs or AJs; they kept running into monsters like K2o, Q4s, and J9o.  I do not think I would grind these games regularly unless I had 100 buy-ins. If I ever learn to understand Kelly Criterion, I bet therein is the answer to why PokerStars buy-ins jump from 25c to $1.50, with only a hand full of high variance games in between.

Game #22 finally broke the curse of the big slick.:wink:

Two good things about this challenge is that I will finally be able to view the +20 VPP videos in the library, and I have the opportunity to win a few more pennies in the Open Skill league next month as well.

However, I  would perfer to have a larger bankroll to be playing these regularly. Losing five games is more than 10% of my bankroll. At 0.83 VPPs rewarded per $1.50 entry, it takes 25 of these a month to make a 20 VPP goal. Think a good strategy for safer bankroll management for my level is to mostly grind 25c games and top off my 20 VPP goal with these riskier games.

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