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Stories from the Tweedle Beetle's Battles in his Poker Puddle
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Dealing with Overconfidence

By: TweedleBeetl @ 07:28 (EST) / 402 / Comment ( 0 )

My last blog was about my struggle aggainst negative effects of self-doubts, but now I want to ramble a a short bit against a much greater foe: overconfidence

I usually configure my HEM to just show data about current month or even the last few days.

This is because my pattern is that I have a really goot spell but inevitably it is followed by a horrible downswing totally destroying my nice graphs. So I prefer to just look at results beginning from the end of my last downswing.

The problem with this is that after things have been going well for a bit I tend to forget about the downswings and convince myselt that at last I am on the straight and narrow, I am beating this.

Of course then a mini downswing happened to my frustration but then I had a small epiphany:

Usually when this happens I am playing more tables than before.

The funny (or maybe not so funny) thing is that along with that realization comes the memory of having had it before. So the pattern actually is:

upswing ... get confidence ... increase number of tables ... downswing ... frustration ... remember that pesky tables thing, reduce number of tables ... good results .... conveniently forget tables thing...repeat pattern

The good news is that the downswings are less severe that they used to be and last for shorter periods and on the whole the graphs tend upwards even if not as beautiful as I'd like them to be.

So what is the point of all this?

Just that short term upswings do not mean much and one should not move up stakes or increase number of tables just because things have been going well for short time.






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