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Stories from the Tweedle Beetle's Battles in his Poker Puddle
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Good old Nut Flush Draw in 5 card Omaha

By: TweedleBeetl @ 11:56 (EST) / 768 / Comment ( 0 )

Here is a hand of 5 card omaha where my  review with an equity calculator revealed that I had much less equity than I had expected.

Table had been quite passive preflop so I ceded to the temptation to limp despite resolutions to stop doing this, specially UTG. 

I flat the raise from SB, Villain_5 pots and SB folds.
I have to call $3.86 for a chance to win a $11.56 pot. I need 33.4% equity and I thought I must have a great deal more than that. Suited ace, suited jack, pair. decent hand, right? Nut flush draw is a monster, right?
Well, no. It turned out I only had 34.82% equity against this particular villain's hand and probably much less against his range had I actually tried to estimate one.
In fact, this flop decreased my equity from 37.57% preflop!
Still the pot odds were great, and I call.

The turn brought be a ton of more draws: another flush draw and a couple of gutshots.
check to villain who shoves for 90% pot.
With 2 flushdraws and some gutshots surely I have over 50% equity here?
Actually no. I only have 47% equity acording to the calculator. And this is with my second flush draw being good which I should not thought likely because a set of Q was a big part of villain's range at this point.
Still, I was priced in at $10.40 to a $32.36 pot

I bink.

The surprising (to me) part of all this is how the review with equity calculator keeps telling me that I have a long way to go before I can do precise equity estimations in my head.


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