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20+BB PF all-in with AKo? No thanks

20+BB PF all-in with AKo? No thanks
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/Jan/2016

20+BB PF all-in on AKo? No thanks.

By: adriant777 @ 20:56 (EST) / 213 / Comment ( 0 )

Hello everybody.

I still consider myself beginner in poker but I'm studying hard and I wish to share my thoughts about where I am right now with understanding the phenomenon.

 I have been through some rules of basic to medium importance and now I am studying to find reasons and logic regarding bet sizing and why such moves as 20+BB PF shoves are incorrect.

In a HU MTT let's say with 1000 players, a player must elliminate 10 other players to win the tourney; in 4, 6, 9 handed MTTs also with about 1000 players the situation is quite the same by that  a player must double his chip count about 10 times by major wins, double ups and knockouts. If I say that whenever I have a prime hand, let's say AKo, I shove PF 20BBs, 30BBs or even more and then I'm called and I win ten times in a row so I win the tourney then it comes in question the idea that what are my odds to win a hand with AKo 10 times in a row. To calculate this let's say that the opponent calling doesn't have AA, KK or AK but only QQ and worse than QQ and against such hands the odds of AKo are at least 45% to win one time which is about 1 out of 2, then to win 2 times in a row is (just in Red vs Black in roulette) 22.5% so about 1 out of 4 and then 10 times in a row is about 1 out of 1,000.

It is insane to put money on something that has 1 in 1,000 shot to win (if I want to win the tourney) so the solution is to use the flop, turn and river in order to bet only as much as is realistic. The odds that I get at any point must be literally followed, each situation to be totally depicted from what happened up to that point, to be watched independently: if I have AsKd and at the turn the board is 10h7h3h6h with 2 opponents and 15 BBs in the pot then I am not going to make a pot limit or a shove call because in that moment I have no more than 15% chance to win the hand so I must call maximum 14.(9)% of the pot. In newspapers it is common to appear  chess positions, there is an image that looks like a position during a game, and there  is a question: "what is the best move for white?" or "white gives checkmate in 3 moves, how?" and for poker there must also be depicted situations in the same way: "you have QhQd and 25 BBs, 2 opponents, you are the last to move, board is Ah9d6h and both opponents checked, what is your best move?"

The correct play sounds somehow like this: at a certain situation you have 20% chance to win the hand, how much can you bet maximum? The answer is 19.(9)% and that's because 20% winning chance means that on the long run 1 out of 5 times you win the hand and then if you put always 19% (let's round it up to 19%) of the pot then 4 times you lose but each 5th time you win so 5 times you put in a total of 5 x 19% = 95% of the pot and this is how much you lose and when you win then you win 100% of the pot so you are up 5% of the pot.

There is one question about MTTs: long run means 500K+ and 1M+ and even 10M+ hands but in non-HU MTTs the winner plays only a few hundred hands so how does this strategy apply there? The answer is most likely that the player must be lucky enough for the long run to materialize in those few hundred hands.

Well, I believe that these are good ideas; also I look continuously to improve my game because of course, poker is made profitable by many other rules, not only what I wrote here.

Thank you for reading and "see you on the ring side".

 

Adrian

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