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/Feb/2014

One Step Ahead #2

By: aznhaxor @ 19:07 (EST) / 265 / Comment ( 1 )

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My answer is call. First of all, I need to make a lot of assumptions because not much information is given. I believe this is an early phase of a tournament. Starting number of chips is 5000. The blind is probably at lv3.

Assumption#1:
During the pre-flop, SB paid 75, 1BB paid 150 and the villain called 150 (limping). During the flop phase, the hero dropped 300 chips and villain called (300) again. The result is pot size of 975.

Assumption#2:
The villain has 12891 chips. More than twice the size of starting chips at lv3 blind tells me he is loose and aggressive.

Putting two assumptions together, he has no ace or suited king* (heart) because of his limping on the pre-flop and flop. (although limping on the flop is not a bad choice because 300 is already a good size relative to the pot size). Given his nature, he does not have a strong card otherwise a raise should be there. I am guessing he has a mid strength connector. His sudden snap calling tells me he is semi-bluffing.

If he actually has Ace-flush or King-flush, I will not be scared on the river card at all in his shoe (may be a straight-flush but what are the chances). Having a made-hand, I (villain) will try to get more value from my opponent, hoping he makes c-bet on the river also (or I can make small bet on river to bait him).

Back to our hero's perspective, if our villain had play aggressively on the flop and pre-flop, it would be a different story. Anything can happen on the poker table. We certainly do have a strong hand. However, you should be prepared to let go off your premium hands, if the situation looks dark. Playing professionally is key. If he had a ace high flush, we only have two outs (4% chance) to improve our hand on the river. Nevertheless,  the chance of our villain having either King-flush or Ace-flush is low. His snap calling feels like a bluff. Also, calling queen-flush is most likely to be an ev+ decision. 


Give me your thought on this and comment below. I hope PokerSchoolOnline Team shares his insight here, too. Thanks


Read more: One Step Ahead #1 (aznhaxor) – Poker School Online: Learn Poker Strategy, Odds and Tells http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/blogs/aznhaxor/one-step-ahead-1#ixzz2t3jxsONY

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