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/Dec/2012

I would have won

By: baud2death @ 04:07 (EST) / 86 / Comment ( 0 )

Stop it... its just silly

 

You here commentators all the time on televised Poker events saying "Oh, Joe Schmoe would have made a full house on the flop if he didnt fold his 49"

 

That is obviously good for TV (since they need to comment on anything that gets the interest of the viewer) but i used to spend a lot of time post fold, checking my cards and seeing what I might have got if I hadnt folded.

Its folded... its gone, it has no chance to win you any money and it makes the mistake of giving you regret as to your decision to fold it.

 

49o is an easy fold 9999/10000.

Remarking that you got the nuts on the flop "IF" you had stayed in the hand is like saying "I would have won the lottery if I had picked the winning numbers"

Sure, its a different story if it is a close fold. Say if you had AK with mega action to you, multiple opponents and you didnt feel your AK would hold up to such a pot, you fold.

Board comes A K K, you wish you hadn't folded now but not with regret, just bad luck

This is like if you had a set of numbers you play on the lottery each week but needed the money to buy food so you didnt play. The winning numbers are your regular numbers... not good but in the grand scheme of things what is more important, feeding your family or letting them go hungry so you might win the lottery.

 

A fold is gone, its history. I would say just dont look at the board once you fold but that gives you the missed opportunity to watch your opponents for tells, reads and general "how they play"

 

Never ever ever ever think "I wish i had played that now" because unless you are playing too scared (ie you had AK late stages, with one opp who limped... and you folded) every laydown you make that is part of your plan is the right laydown. Thinking that it could have gone better your way only opens up the door to regret and the likelihood that you might start to think that its worth the risk to play poorer cards in the future because you are running cold and your folded hands are winning a lot.

 

Not worth it.... you would have won? No.... you COULD have won and that COULD is precipitated on the parallel world where you play like a Donkey but whilst you COULD have won this one pot, playing like a fish means that you WOULD have lost most other pots by playing the same.

 

Poker isnt Bingo, Roulette or Blackjack. We don't throw our life savings on Black and hope for the best. We make smart educated deicisons in the right spots.

A poker player who is willing to bet 40-50% of hands with anything, bet big if he hits and check/call to the river to chase anything is the annoying type of player we all love to hate. They are often chip leader and one could think "How does a fish get so much chips" but they rarely keep them in the longterm so its usually ok.

 

How do fish get so many chips whilst we are on the subject... they play bad and get paid off? Why wouldnt we want to do the same?

 

Let me set the scene. You have 100 opp in a MTT field, 50 of them are mega loose and willing to go All-In on anything early on and then play calling station the rest of the game later on.

 

Everyone in this example starts with 1000 chips and blinds are at 10/20 (so 50BB)

Within the first few stages, 50 of the 100 players are playing it tight, folding practically every hand.

The other 50 are shoving at each other. This means that 25 of them will get knocked out straight away and 25 will DU. Attrition!

Now whilst the same 50 tight players are still playing it tight, the Maniacs (now 25 of them have 100BB) are still shoving. If they all shove, we are going to be down to about 13 players, all with 200BB.

Now about 9 of them are happy with 200BB, they will now nurse that to the FT. 4 of them are still on the super maniac and over the next few hands 4 becomes 2 becomes 1 and that one player has 800BB (or 16,000 chips)...

This is exactly how loose players get a lot of chips, its quick early Double Ups. They often end up finishing on the Final Table as well with some of these chips still left (after they have spewed a good deal of them) but with the right play you can extract those chips from them quite easily.

 

So when you see opponents on your table with 200, 400 and even 800BB early stages playing loose, they got these from crazy early game play... its fish, it doesnt pay off in the long run and you shouldnt emulate it

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