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/Jan/2013

Much Action = Not Worth It

By: baud2death @ 05:18 (EST) / 64 / Comment ( 1 )

Lets take a look at this for a moment

You are in a hand, blinds are 100/200 and you are in MP with 3000 chips

 

UTG limps

UTG + 1 folds

So.. you have a nice hand, say and raise it early from MP.

You had 3000 chips, you bet 2x BB for 200 chips

HJ folds

CO Shoves (Shoves for 2550)

SB folds

BB Shoves (Shoves for 2300)

UTG Shoves (Shoves for 6700)

 

 

So you have the Nuts Preflop... AA. Should you get it in?

Most of the time this would be a resounding YES... but unless you play in a Cash Game where you can reload for no fuss, in a Torny where you life is on the line, is it really worth it?

 

Lets look at some hand examples to see.

 

UTG limped but he is a tight player so we are going to give him a 15% hand range to play with

CO is showing strength, he is at 12BB but he isnt waiting for an Open spot so I reckon 12% range for him

BB needs to have something much stronger so I am going to give him top 5.5% of hands

 

Using http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/articles/Oddscalc it gives me 60.5% average to win the hand.

... and that is with AA

AA = 60.5%

KK = 41.8%

QQ = 33.3%

AKs = 22%

AKo = 16.7%

 

Now, 60% might sound like good numbers but its only slightly better than a coinflip.

 

Now, i am not saying DON'T get it in with AA or KK preflop with 3 opponents, I just wanted to highlight that although AA, KK and QQ are monsters, from a pure odds point of view, outside of a Cashgame, you are not dominating as much as you should be.

 

AA, KK and QQ are just pairs... Strong, yes but with so many cards to come and so many opponents already committed, they arent as strong as people like to think.

 

With AA/KK/QQ your ideal target is 1 opponent, maybe two who have a hand like Ax or Kx with AA or KK in your hand... or a lower pair.

With more opponents we open the door to more chances for trips, more chances for flushes or straights.

 

Just  be careful

 

 

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