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From Ace Rag to Riches

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Worked really hard to get my 30FPP qualifying ticket, thought it was a regular MTT to win a sattelite ticket and looked it up, All-In Shootout!

 

So, as I speak there are 6,278 registered for my shootout event but there can be a maximum of 60,000 (yikes) - Funnily enough, there are more people registered in the low and high variants of this event... i knew I could get 30FPP, had really no chance of getting the higher one and the lower one was too easy - from a pure odds point of view, looks like I lucked out!

There are 2,400 Sunday Storm tickets up for grabs!

Lets assume the worst and say that 60,000 people register for my event (please no!!!)

With max of 7 per table, for the first round you have a 1 in 7 chance to win (although I am unsure how they will settle a tie, perhaps they have all tied players re-do)

So first round, if you make it the field reduces to 8,575 ... yikes, still not in a ticket spot yet

Second round, again 1 in 7 chance and this time you will get a ticket if you get through and there will be 1,225 people left.

Wait a sec... that still leaves about 1,100 tickets unaccounted for ---mmm, perhaps the losers of the 2nd round (7,350 or so) run again with the tickets going to the winners of that shootout

Unsure of that one... either way, if you make it to round three, you are GTD a ticket!! wohooo!

 

So how many hops would it take to win the grand prize?

6 hops...

1 win takes you from 60k to 8.5k

2 wins takes you from 8.5k to 1.2k

3 wins takes you from 1.2k to 175

4 wins takes you from 175 to 25

5 wins takes you from 25 to 4

(25 is tricky, its 3 tables of 6 and 1 table of 7... so your odds slightly improve if you get lucky on seating here)

6 wins takes you from 4 to 1 (so slightly better odds with 4:1 on the last table)

 

Someone feel free to correct my maths or concept of how the event works but whilst it is technically a 1 in 60,000 chance to win, I like to think of it has having to win 6 coinflips (sure, its a weird coin with 7 sides lol) but that feels better to me than 60,000 to 1 --- yikes

 

Get me a ticket and I will be happy

Of course I wouldn't say no to the $10,000 and someone has to win it right? I mean imagine that... you deposit on pokerstars for your first time this year, you have been working hard to learn the game and have managed to grind out enough FPP to secure the ticket. You register and then perhaps even forget about it.

You wake up the next morning and since its all-in and sitting out is permitted, you read your emails

 

Dear nemo997,

You finished the tournament in 1st place. A USD 10,000.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

 

Um.... wow, that would be a story!

 

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