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dlinqnt's poker thoughts and progress on the road to pro

  in recent memory, i have flopped somewhere in the neighbourhood of 3 million draws, open enders and flush draws in particular.  personally, i don't continue in hands with gutterballs.  out of those 3 million draws, i have hit a resounding 1 of them.  i'm resonably sure that the odds of hitting an open ender with 2 to come is somewhere near 32%, or about 1 in 3.  flush draws are a even a bit more likely to hit bwing somewhere in the 36% range. 
  interestingly, i can hit 2 outers however, including quads aces (a one outer, really) earlier tonight against someone that played K10 out of position to a raise, called a pot sized flop bet and turned the str8.  the problem for me was that i had AA and turned the third A giving me top set, but leaving me crushed.  i could pair the board for a boat, but i hit the last ace in the deck to win the hand. i know that i had more than one out in this example, but it was the single ace that came to win it for me. 
   i have posted several blogs about donkies and suck outs, and i have been very honest that i am guilty of making mistakes and winning anyway (sucking out).  it's hard to say shoving a set of aces was a donkey play, but it was a clear suckout to hit that ace and win a large pot.  i'll take it and bank a large win with the knowledge that i have paid a lot of suckout fees myself over the years and this was my turn.
   I should point out that i was 6 tabling at the time and i won some large pots on other tables as well, so the suck out was not the only hand that contributed to what was  agreat night for the bankroll.  i did close the session after 600+ hands and up over 150 bbs.  a good night, despite the 3m to 1 draw ratio.

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