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dlinqnt's poker thoughts and progress on the road to pro

/Apr/2011

some thoughts on odds...

By: dlinqnt @ 01:23 (EDT) / 380 / Comment ( 1 )
   there's about a million different programs out there can calculate your expected odds of winning a given hand against another given hand. watch poker on tv and most shows have the percentages attached to each players hand.  these percentages change as the hand progresses and eventually reach 100% for one player.
    players should have some concept of these odds when making a decision to call a bet and peel off a card.  this is the math part of poker that newer players don't often understand, and some more experienced players have mostly gotten the hang of.  this can be one of many ways to separate a donkey from a shark, so to speak. 
    if i suspect someone is on a draw, i will bet enough to take away their odds.  if they call, then either i have misread their hand (a very real possibility), or they do not understand pot odds and don't realize they are making a mistake drawing.
    here's something i have been seeing in some of the blogs here on PSO that tells me that some of the players on here don't quite get what the odds are telling them.  here's what i think they might be missing:

  - if you are an 86% favorite to win the hand, you will win it 86% of the time; BUT you will also lose 14% of the time.  think about it.  you will lose 14% of the time.  that's the other side of the odds.  that's the draw hitting against you and cracking your aces.
   
   - we as players cannot decide when that 14% is going to happen.  we don't chose whether or not that 14% suck out is going to happen two hands after the 6% suck out hit against us, or if the next ten draws you chase are all going to miss, even if one in 4 is supposed to hit.

   i guess what i'm trying to say is that it sucks getting drawn out on, but that is the nature of an odds based game.  the odds do get beat sometimes, and occasionally, we are all the ones that beat those odds and crack someones' aces.  we are all guilty of it.  and it feels pretty good. 

  
  
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