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OMahaG: On the Road to Omaha supremacy

Hand History Reviews and breaking down my good and bad plays.
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/Sep/2013

Branching Outwards

By: heyboy17 @ 14:21 (EDT) / 300 / Comment ( 0 )

Ah, 25PLO....its a sick grind, and sometimes, you hit a rough patch where you lose 12 buyins. Its been a rough couple of weeks, but the main thing is, I cannot be upset with my play, and I know that if I continue to get it in good, in the long run, I will be crushing again. But then again, sometimes, you just get it in good on the turn and disaster hits. Lets look at a wonderful example of this...

 

 

So far, were having a decent session and were up 15 bucks, not too shabby. We get Ad2d9h6s in the BB and we know Villain 1 is raising way too many hands. As a result, we hope to flop good and bust his 95% cbet percentage with a check raise. SB calls here giving us better pot odds so we call. Flop is 8cAs7s and we have top pair and an open-ended straight draw. The SB leads out, since he just called preflop, it feels unlikely he has a very good hand, but maybe one that we can bust if we hit so I float him and then the OR pots it to 6 bucks. Trip Aces are possible here but very unlikely since we have an ace, and it feels like he is defending against a flush draw calling so it looks like middle or bottom set. The SB now flats him and a big decision presents itself, do we call 5 to win 21 here. Lets assume that OR has a set and SB has a flush draw. We have a spade blocker, which decreases the odds of the flush, but we only have 6 pure straight outs and only 3 are the nuts, but its unlikely that we are against better straight draws. Assume all 6 outs are nut outs, and its about 8 to 1 to hit the straight. So we shoudln't call here, but what about implied odds, if we hit the straight, we are guaranteed to recieve all flush draw and set calls with his pot on the turn, and we could scoop a 75 dollar pot, so we are now calling 5 to win 75 or more potentially, so there is enough value here to merit the call, even without the right pot odds to draw. The enticement of money always does. We call and then BINK....offsuit 10 on the turn...little happy dance...back to work. SB now checks and we want those who are drawing to pay, so its a snap pot here from us. The OR goes all in and the SB flats. Lets break down our read at this point. Lets assume that OR has a set here, give him 8876 for argument, and we say SB has nut spades, so KQ23 or nut spades with a straight redraw, like KQJ10. In the first case, we are a slight underdog to win the hand, so 49%, but the second case, we are an underdog to KQJ10 (44% to 36%), but thats 2nd worst case scenario here, and hes probably getting it all in on the turn with that so we are the favourite here to win. The tense rivers comes...Ks...vomit...curse at the poker gods, move on. But then the SB checks to us, and were like...what...you don't have the nuts, what did you call on the flop with...omg...does he also have a set, can we scoop this.pleaseeeee. Too dangerous to value bet so we check behind and he rolls over bottom set with no backdoors and it feels good...then the OR shows 881010 and in a blinded by greed moment, we feel great...and then the pot goes towards, and it dawns on you that he flopped a set and a flush draw, turned another set and river his flush...and you lose to the flush draw you never saw coming. How good are we in this spot....

Cards             Win   %       Lose   %    Tie   % Tie
Ts 8s Td 8d   11   30.56   25   69.44   0   0.00
Js 7c 7d 6d    3     8.33     33   91.67   0   0.00
6s Ad 2d 9h   22   61.11   14   38.89   0   0.00

60%...in omaha....is pretty good, but not this time...and we lose our damn roll. 

So, we all run bad, but it does make you step back for a bit...because it doesn't matter how perfect, or how many times you get it in good....suckouts and bad beats are always going to happen, and I am trying to tell myself that's it gonna be okay...which is tough to be honest. As a result, I have shifted my focus to some small sng tourneys to refocus my game, and its not even omaha...wow...

Branching Out: Hyper STTs

Ah yes, my hyper STT grind..its all about the math really, how wide should I be shipping from any position on the table and is it mathematically correct. For the uninformed, hyper STTs are 6 or 9 handed, you start with 500 chips and only 25 bbs at the first level with antes (10/20/2) and blinds go up every two minutes. You just nit it up for three levels and then just start jamming, or at least...thats what I keep seeing. Tight is right early on, pairs increase in value as we get in later position and by the time we hit the button, it is mathematically correct to shove 33, A8, A5s, KQ, KTs, QTs, and JTs. Now, the fields are pretty wacky, and they seem to over value small pairs and hands like KJ UTG just cause its sooted, and when you roll over you AK proudly, feeling confident,,,the jack flops and you want to punch somebody. Let me tell you from experience, that losing 65/35s is a constant here, and that making the most correct decisions will lead to profits in the long run. Hey, your looking at the 94th place man in the high orbit mercury sng race so far...so watch out world

Let the grind continue I say, I will be back to omaha soon though...as soon as I run better...lol.

In Omaha We Trust

Heyboy17

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