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Triple up? Gawd no!

By: jergul @ 03:09 (EST) / 236 / Comment ( 1 )

In my first blog thingy I rambled on about duck and cover for the early stages of any micro MTT. I think I called it MMT by mistake, though in retrospect "Multi Mob Tournaments" is as good a name as any for common gameplay at the beginning of those things. I suggested that playing premium hands only is the only technique that works for me and after pondering some more, I am uncertain if even premium hands are good enough in early positions.

I will support this position by actual pseudo  math (jergulmath is a term actually googleable - pedants seem to find it infuriating....which is a good thing. I think). Lets say I have a premium hand giving me a 60% chance of winning if I shove. Sounds good, but what happens if I am potentially facing a mob of shovers and two of them join me all in?

0,60*0,60 = 0,36

Seems ok odds for a 300% gain (in this imaginary play where we all have equal chips). Problem is that for me the odds suck.

If I win, I cannot use my chip advantage to my uhm advantage; I move out of my comfort zone of less than 20 BB, will start experimenting and end up dribbling away most of my gain. But the second and more important reason is that tripling up is not the same as doubling up twice. Lets say I have 1000 chips with a 60% double up chance on a called shove again. My chances winning both shoves is still 0,36, so lets imagine I win both:

1000*2*2 = 4000

Yay. I quadrupled instead of trebled. Much better. And by waiting I am probably not even outside of my comfortzone as the BBs grow while i wait. I certainly know that less people will shove my shove as the mob falls to the roadside, and I really only want one caller...sort of. Actually I just want the predatorial bids, the limps* and blinds along with the knowlege I have irritated better players than myself. I am easy to please I guess.

My understanding of being irritating looks like this: Suppose an evil predator chipping away at my chips has twice what I have. , Losing 50% of his chips will hurt him by taking away his skill advantage. He will be in my shoes with the shove-fold alternative until he recovers. Should he ever call my shove? In my mind, not really as it costs him a lot on average. He will undoubtably call on occassion, though if he has been watching he will know I don't shove for the hell of it. A shove means I have a good hand. Here is some more jergulmath:

He loses: I gain double up to 200% of my chipcount, he falls to 50% of his.
He wins: I am gone (but that was going to happen anyway), he has 150% of his chipcount.

Seems like a bad deal to me. Note that him having twice my chips maximizes the hurt I can cause. If he has less, then he will end up with 150-200% of his initial chips, so gains more relative to his chipcount. If he has more, then he loses say 50-1% of his chips...which eventually becomes so low it can just be shrugged off, so the risk of being called increases.

So I gain somehow by rational players folding to my shoves. The gain is called fold equity (the value you gain from people folding) I think. And the larger the BBs to the size of my pile, the more I gain from it.

So yah, duck and cover in the early stages of micro MTTs makes sense to me....much to my future embarrassement when I read this sometime down the road of figuring out how the hell this game actually works.

*There is a lesson here somewhere about why limping is bad when I tend to include them as part of a windfall. I don't however really understand it, so limp like the best (or worst) of them.

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