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m1illion's blog

/Apr/2007

Implied Odds and Getting Value for Your Hand.

By: m1illion @ 06:42 (EDT) / 471 / Comment ( 0 )
This is a try at a clear and correct example of implied odds. You are at a table of nine, early in a MTT. The blinds are 50/100 and you are the big blind with about 2500 chips. Four people limp and the small blind completes. You hold 78o and gladly see a free flop with the pot at 600. The flop comes A-4-6 rainbow. The SB checks, you check, a middle position player throws in 100 chips, a fold, the CO calls, the button and SB fold, and it is up to you. This is a made to order spot to make a cheap call that can net you a nice return. That return is the result of the implied odds . The pot is now 800 chips which gives you 8/1 odds on your 11/1 gutshot draw. A fold isn't automatic here. You are getting in so cheaply and can get away from your hand so easily if you miss while drawing to a hand that is not very obvious to your opponents. If the bet were 400 chips into a 1400 chip pot you really should throw it away. Your just not going to hit it enough to make up for the times you miss. And that is an important point. I was at a table with thehazyone very recently when a player overbet his hand and got no callers. That devalued his hand tremendously. thehazyone tried to explain but I don't think it was received well. When you make a hand, you must make every effort to get the most out of it to make up for the times that you miss or lose with that same combination. All hands have value. Which would you rather be dealt, AK or A7? Or for you haters of Big Slick, which would you rather be dealt, AT or A7? A7 loses both times because you will win more with AK or AT. Those combinations have more value. But if the blinds are 25-50 and you play AK in such a way as to only win the blinds then you have devalued that hand to something much less. If all you win are the 75 chips in blinds then you may as well have been bluffing with 72o. When you hear the TV commentator say that a player is trying to "extract chips," this is exactly what they are referring to. Getting value for your hand is very important and you should look into ways to improve that part of your game if need be. Back to our hand. We are calling 8/1 on an 11/1 draw, why? We are getting a cheap draw at a well disguised hand. If we miss we have only 200 chips committed and we can walk away with no muss, no fuss, next hand please. But if we hit, that deception will give us a great opportunity to more than make up for the short odds if we hit. That is to say our implied odds are great enough to warrant a call getting less than what pot odds would dictate. We are going to get tremendous value if we hit. The turn is a 5. Oh happy day ! Our goal now is to get as much as we can for this hand, preferably we more than double up.by getting everthing into the pot. The middle position player bets out 200 chips and the CO calls and the pot is now 1300 chips.The middle position player has a few more chips than we do but the CO has nearly triple our stack. Reviewing the board we notice that the five has also brought with it a flush draw. So we must also protect our hand from this possibility which might impact our ability to get value. You know that you're betting a made hand but what is really important is what do your opponents think you are betting? The betting thus far has been very weak. It is just unlikely that the middle position player has an Ace. The bets have just been too small. There is no sign that the flop has connected with that hand at all. The CO, on the other hand, has called these two small bets and has to be credited with at least a pair of some kind and maybe more. We all have seen Ax being played with no regard for position or price and this is a small pot so two pair isn't out of the question. Of course a flush draw could also be looming. So what do we do? There is no one perfectly correct answer. You could just shove and hope you get a call but that is a high risk manuever that devalues our hand if we don't get the call. You could just call but then you are giving 6.5/1 odds to any draws and that leaves us vulnerable. A better plan might be to bet about 3/4 of the pot, ~1000 chips. To your opponents this could look like a steal attempt, maybe a weak Ace trying to take down the pot, possibly a semi-bluff from a flush draw, maybe two pair, or.. you get the point. it could be a lot of things and in that confusion you might induce a mistake. And that mistake is the payoff from your implied odds when you called without pot odds. If either of your opponents has an Ace or two pair, are slow playing a set or has a strong affinity to playing draws, you are going to see them raising you all in. If you are simply called on your ~1000 chip bet you are technically pot committed and should push your remaining stack no matter what the river brings. If a scare card comes and you check and fold, you will have in the neighborhood of 10x the BB left, and have to bet your stack with a wide range of hands some time in the next two orbits. If you win you will have gotten max value for your 78o and if you lose you will have gotten everything into the middle with the best of it. And that really is all you can do. Hand Number: 427,271,419 Table Number: 5,985,041 Event Name: FREEROLL-PSO$ 200 Added (#3827122) Event Started: Wednesday April 11th 2:00:00 AM CDT 2007 Event Type: PokerSchool Online Tournament Event Buy-In: PSO Member (PSO$ 200 added) Total Prize Pool: PSO$ 200 Game: No Limit Hold 'em Level II: 50/100 Blinds (25 Minimum Chip) Average Stack: 5,600 (4,000 starting chips) Remaining Players: 10 (14 started) Seat 1 : Svidrigailov starts with 6,375 Seat 2 : RandallA starts with 3,475 Seat 3 : WillyLaPerla starts with 14,850 Seat 4 : m1illion starts with 2,475 Seat 5 : Kenai2844 starts with 8,025 Seat 6 : BOZIDAR starts with 4,725 Seat 7 : riversfury starts with 2,925 Seat 8 : trsmojo starts with 3,275 Seat 9 : biscotti starts with 2,900 Seat 10 : tamiekas starts with 6,975 Seat 1 : Svidrigailov has the dealer button >>>DEALING HOLE CARDS<<< m1illion dealt down 8d 7c RandallA posts the small blind 50 m1illion posts the big blind 100 Kenai2844 folds BOZIDAR folds riversfury calls 100 trsmojo folds biscotti calls 100 tamiekas calls 100 Svidrigailov calls 100 RandallA calls 50 m1illion checks >>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ Ah 4d 6c ] RandallA checks m1illion checks riversfury bets 100 biscotti folds tamiekas calls 100 Svidrigailov folds RandallA folds m1illion calls 100 >>>DEALING TURN<<< [ 5c ] m1illion checks riversfury bets 200 tamiekas calls 200 m1illion raises 1,200 to 1,400 riversfury folds tamiekas raises 1,200 to 2,600 m1illion calls 875 and is all-in tamiekas takes back 325 tamiekas cards were 6h 5d m1illion cards were 7c 8d >>>DEALING RIVER<<< [ Qd ] m1illion wins 5,650 with an eight high straight >>>SUMMARY<<< Hand Ended: Wednesday April 11th 2:20:07 AM CDT 2007 Total Pot: 5,650 Board: [ Ah 4d 6c 5c Qd ] Seat 1 : Svidrigailov (button) lost 100, folded on the flop Seat 2 : RandallA (small blind) lost 100, folded on the flop Seat 3 : WillyLaPerla did not bet Seat 4 : m1illion (big blind) bet 2,475, won 5,650, net +3,175, showed hand [ 7c 8d ] Seat 5 : Kenai2844 did not bet, folded pre-flop Seat 6 : BOZIDAR did not bet, folded pre-flop Seat 7 : riversfury lost 400, folded on the turn Seat 8 : trsmojo did not bet, folded pre-flop Seat 9 : biscotti lost 100, folded on the flop Seat 10 : tamiekas lost 2,475, showed hand [ 6h 5d ]
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