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overpast

/Dec/2010

"Priced in" - the biggest fallacy in the game????

By: overpast @ 06:42 (EST) / 84 / Comment ( 0 )
Okay I do it too – but I'm sure you are just throwing away chips. I was in the big blind at $300 and someone raised to $625, and two callers so is only $325 into almost $2,000 for me so I am “priced in” – with Q7d – average hand of course and suited. But I take issue with this. With a raiser and two callers, Q7 is near enough never the best hand and plenty of times, even if you pair the queen or the seven, it still isn’t the best hand. I think, when you call out of the big blind being “priced in” you really need to hit much bigger hands to take the lead, you need two pairs, trips, straights, flushes etc. So I believe you are about 40-1 to flop two pairs, and something like 120-130-1 to flop flushes and straights and you are never “priced in” to do this.  So unless you have a plan which involves more than, say flopping a flush, then I think you are just throwing chips away.
 
What I did was completely rubbish – I did indeed flop a flush draw with two diamonds. The raiser put out what looked like a c-bet to me. The flop is king high and I don’t think he has hit it too often. I suppose he could have AK or KQ obviously, I don’t know. I figure the more sophisticated play would be to raise here, but I call and of course the turn is a blank and I guess he has sussed I am drawing and puts in a big bet, maybe he does have a king and I fold and I think this is pretty rubbish by me.

Anyway, I came about 2,800 and won $24. I got a slightly lucky early double up - I had 77 in the small blind at $15/$30 and two people had limped in and I don't really know what to do here. I don't like raising/re-raising out of the small blind hardly ever, though I feel like I probably should do here. But it is early in the game and I think it is probably just about okay to call and try to hit a set with potentially 4 people in the pot. I know a lot of people think that is pretty lame. But then the big blind, who has played a lot of hands already squeezes to $180 and I think he will do this with quite a lot. He has a silver star and while I don't subscribe to this crazy poker idea that you are better off playing against good players than against idiots, I do think there are circumstances - like this - where you can get a better read of what is going on when you have a pretty good idea that the other person knows what they are doing. Like squeezing  3 limpers with a wide-ish range. So one limper calls, the other folds, and now I think there is a really good argument for re-raising here, but I just call and the flop is 678 with two diamonds. I don't really like leading out from the small blind too often either, plus I know the big blind is going to continue with anything pretty much all the time, so I check, he bets $300 into about $600, the other guy calls and I raise the new pot size $1,200. The big blind shoves, the other guy folds and I call and he has KQd, (which is a bit more than I thought!) but it all pans out anyway. Then its a lot easier game with $6,000 instead of $3,000.

I went out in slightly useless circumstances. I had about 15 big blinds and had A8 in the big blind and it folded round to the small blind who raised - I forget, I think just a normal amount 2-3x and I came up with the idea of shoving, thinking he would fold a lot - he had a similar number of chips to me. I guess I don't know about that - in the cold light of day, I don't think he is raise/folding hardly ever. I think A8 is too strong to fold in the circumstances and I think shoving is better than calling but it still feels slightly goofy. Then it turns out he has KK which explains why he didn't fold.
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