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thoughts on skill & luck

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thoughts on skill & luck - Thu Oct 17, 2002, 11:13 PM
(#1)
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how wrong is the player who says "I'll take luck, you take skill"? most of us have had good hands beaten by a player who got lucky, and at times like that, we can agree with that statement

in fact, if we talk about one game, then I do agree, but will skill let you win a truely big pot? I think that luck may be the larger factor in determining the amount you win

and I think skill may be the larger factor in determining the amount you lose
 
Old
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Thu Oct 17, 2002, 11:29 PM
(#2)
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Hey Jellow,

I have a very short answer to your question.

There are players who make their living playing poker.

I guarantee you they don't do it on luck.

sarge
 
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Thu Oct 17, 2002, 11:39 PM
(#3)
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Actually I could have made my answer a touch longer.

On any given hand the "luck factor" can help a player overtake a better hand but in the long run the skilled player will take down the money.

Poker is not a game of chance. It's a game of people, odds, and probablities. The players who understand this and are skilled at reading people and situations and who know how to figure the odds and probabilities will invariably be playing with the best of it. And, if you only play when you have the best of it eventually you will come out ahead.

In the long run the people who play poker as if it was a game of chance will find themselves on the rail while the skilled players play on with their money.

Wish I was one of the more skilled players. Then I wouldn't have gone on tilt in tonight's tournament and i wouldn't have blown all my chips on three incredibly bad plays.

sarge
 
Old
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Fri Oct 18, 2002, 10:53 AM
(#4)
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Luck vs skill----------Yesterday I played in the WPO 2:30 tourney,
190 players finished 3rd. Was it luck or skill? Skill in that I played only top cards. Luck hummmmmmm this is hard for me to say yes to.

I'm going to tell all who read this a secreat I have. Sometimes I play less then top cards. Yeah a lot of you are saying more then sometimes. I have been tested and scored very high for ESP. Ok, ok stop laughing or you won't be able to finish this. When it seems that I'm playing "not so good" cards and winning its because my ESP is in high gear. Now its not on 100% of the time, (sure wish it was).
But when I'm "tunned in" I'm hard to beat as some of you can attest to.

Yesterday I was "tunned in" went with some "feelings" that really weren't good poker decissions but, (except for one) were all good.

Sometimes its just plain dumb luck, and I know when it is. Sometimes its skill, hopefully I know that too. But when I'm playing very well and winning those hands that someone might get angry at it because my ESP is on and working.

If you have made it this far and can still see though those tears of laughter, let me tell you that twice I have saved my life, and once the life of someone else because I listened to my "inner voice".

Oh, and yes I do hear "a" voice, its a little boy's voice, he doesn't see dead people, (thank goodness).

There you have my secreat, does it work, yes and no. But when it does I do play very well.

ponygee
 
Old
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Fri Oct 18, 2002, 11:38 AM
(#5)
Deleted user
Ponygee,

I will agree with you on part of this. There are times when we are in the " zone " in various things we do. The luck part of it is actually small as we tend to remember when the cards go our way when playing " bad " cards. We tend to forget when we lose with those same cards. I'm sure that not all of your hunches payed off yesterday, but people do not retain the knolwedge as easily when it is negative reinforcement as we do the pleasurable results. IMHO

What is not luck is the part of the " zone " that is controled by our senses. This is a part of our mind that we should develope in greater detail. In simplistic form it is when you put your hand on something hot, you will usually pull it away quickly. There is no conscience thought process, you just do it as Nike would say. The same can be said for the other types of activities we do in our daily lives. When we let our subconscience take over we sometimes make better decisions. OK, in my case that would be anytime I let it take over. What I am trying to say is that when you played some of those bad cards, your mind may have been acting on the information about the players involved, your position, the table dynamics at the time, ect. The only difference is you are not forcing your mind to put those into thoughts before you actually make your decision. The thought process becomes clear after the action. IMHO that is the '' zone " or esp.

PS Just so the skeptics have something to point to I had my first out of body experience at the age of seven.
 
Old
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Fri Oct 18, 2002, 12:13 PM
(#6)
Deleted user
playing a cash game plhe other day i raised preflop from sb with AA
bb rerraises me utg (only other player involved folds) i reraise and get called there is now a pot of about 50$ ( i was trying 25cent/50cent) wehrn flop came 6h7d5c i raised all in (who told me always buy in for max needs shooting) i get called and lose to the mighty 84h yeah he got lucky and some idiot at table even told him it was nice hand

yeah he got lucky but he left the table with 10$ left and i had to rebuild my BR back up to 100$ after losing over 100$ in 2 days

moral of story is in the short run luck is needed but in the long runs skill will prevail.

remember i built the bankroll in first place from a 5$ freeroll win and by playing poker against these bingo players.
 
Old
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Fri Oct 18, 2002, 12:37 PM
(#7)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by ironside

Quote:
remember i built the bankroll in first place from a 5$ freeroll win and by playing poker against these bingo players.

Ah yes...I remember it like it was yesterday...it was summer in the city and I was young and in love...There she was sitting on a park bench wearing a flowered dress.....
 
Old
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Re: thoughts on skill & luck - Fri Oct 18, 2002, 02:40 PM
(#8)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jellow
how wrong is the player who says "I'll take luck, you take skill"? most of us have had good hands beaten by a player who got lucky, and at times like that, we can agree with that statement

in fact, if we talk about one game, then I do agree, but will skill let you win a truely big pot? I think that luck may be the larger factor in determining the amount you win

and I think skill may be the larger factor in determining the amount you lose
In the long run then skill obviously overcomes luck. In the short run, it depends how deep the money is. The deeper it is, the more of an edge the skilled player will have. The shallower the money, the less edge the skilled player has. This is why anybody is capable of winning a tournament on any given day.

The more skilled player could still lose any one hand due to luck no matter how deep the money though.
 
Old
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Fri Oct 18, 2002, 04:47 PM
(#9)
Deleted user
the more skilled player could lose more that one hand, he could lose in one game, one week, one month, or even more

regardless of his skill, if the dealer doesn't give him a "good hand", then it is unlikely that he will even see the flop

skill keeps him from playing "bad hands" but luck keeps him from getting "good hands"

ESP(extra sensory peception) is what poor folks call a "hunch"
 
Old
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Fri Oct 18, 2002, 05:02 PM
(#10)
Deleted user
190 players finished 3rd!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! wow, that is some pot for the winner ponygee!!!!!!!!


Wisedom from payshints, often our brains are computing info that we may not be conscious of..first example I can think of......when the police get a description from a witness, they can often draw out info that the witness didn't know they knew, what starts off as......I saw a bloke, tallish, hat, but it was dark etc......becomes...........Male, 6'2 to 6'4, wearing baseball cap, blue shirt, jeans, carrying a package in his left hand, (probably left handed), Skinny, goaty beard , etc. etc............

Every interaction with every player is computed in our brains, and we use it, whether we know it or not.

CLAY
 
Old
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Fri Oct 18, 2002, 05:16 PM
(#11)
Deleted user
:lol: I thought I would be laughed at hard and long for my post. Instead I have gotten very insightful replyes. Thanks so much for not making fun of me.

ponygee
 
Old
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Fri Oct 18, 2002, 08:56 PM
(#12)
Deleted user
it takes freak hands to win these tourneys
if you wait for premium cards and they never come you are bored stiff and going broke, people tag you as a rock, and peo[ple fold to your bets
it is far better to play crap every so often and if the flops hits you its smooth sailing
THEN you wait for premium cards, or ESP inklings on when to act next
i played only premium cards for the first minth of WPO

bubbled so many time playing that way die to stack dynamics
AA called by kq and beaten, etc...

then i had a few malt liquors and played my B game and qualified for the first time ever

you wanna hear my litany of bad beat tales?
thought not
freerolling to 10 grand makes the gamblers and bingo players hearts flutter
if you wait to play the right way against gamblers you become "mr bubble" in a 300 player tourney, unless they are coming moer than their fair share of the time
in which case i would say you are JUST AS LUCKY AS the ANY TWO WILL DO DUDE
large stacks get to see more flops because its cheaper
they also fold to the obvious rocks, knowing their game too
you could, and I have, go broke waiting for the premium hands
in tourneys its all about being the bully
take the free money
if raised, fold
unless its me reraising you on a steal
this game is an art
computer poker doesnt win tourneys unlesss you get the cards
play in some of these two hour sats with a table full of rocks someday
then extroploate
AND GIVE YOURSELF A CHANCE TO GET LUCKY
 
Old
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Sat Oct 19, 2002, 01:15 AM
(#13)
Deleted user
i vote for luck...having skill is pointless in most tournies unless you are playing for a buyin of $500 or greater
 
Old
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Sat Oct 19, 2002, 01:46 PM
(#14)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreams32097
i vote for luck...having skill is pointless in most tournies unless you are playing for a buyin of $500 or greater
Well, most tourney skill, where a more skilled player gets most of their edge, is preflop. Due to the depth of money. So there is a large amount of luck involved in winning any 1 particular event.
 
Old
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Sat Oct 19, 2002, 03:15 PM
(#15)
Deleted user
Luck is in every competition.

There is luck in Chess............and lots of it.

Even the best player in the world will have good and bad luck,
and they said it was a game of pure skill.....not so.

I cannot KNOW for certain how my opponent is feeling, what they have planned, what they THINK I will do next, whether they make a mistake, whether I make a mistake, he can't KNOW how I am feeling, whether he has caught me on a good or bad day, whether I'm feeling aggressive etc. etc. etc.
Even the next move is not certain, and after 12 ish moves each, highly unpredictable.........................hence a lot of luck in Chess,
again, the best player usually wins, but I have lost to a player that I have beaten the other 20/30 times.
All you can you is do the move that probably is the best based on what you think they are most likely to do etc.

Until you are a perfect machine, there is luck in anything you do.

LUCK+SKILL=100%

The more you can KNOW, the less you leave to chance.

So perhaps 'noughts and crosses' (tic tac toe?) is the only pure skill game I know, hence the result is always a draw, and where is the fun in that?!


CLAY
 
Old
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Sun Oct 20, 2002, 05:07 PM
(#16)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clay Knight
Luck is in every competition.

There is luck in Chess............and lots of it.
I've been thinking about this all day :wink:

If you or I play Kasparov, our only chance is that he has flu,food-poisoning or a monster hangover. i.e. 'lucky' that he's in really bad shape and maybe blunders.

That's not my understanding, though, of 'luck' in relation to sports and games. My understanding would be chance events related to the game that happen to work in my favour, such as throwing a 6-6 in the backgammon game when that's about the only way I can win.

A question Clay - if Fritz played Deep Blue at chess, would there be a 'luck' element?
 
Old
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Sun Oct 20, 2002, 06:14 PM
(#17)
Deleted user
Very good question, I would say yes, because a computer playing chess still doesn't know for certain what the other computer will do, this by definition means an element of luck, and that is assuming that the computer plays perfect chess, which it doesn't, it just plays very well.

Re; playing Kasparov, no we would not win unless something very unlucky happened to him as you say, this is a clear example of how important skill is......."class will out"

However........

If you are not PERFECT at any given game,sport,competition, then by definition something is left to 'chance'
At a given stage of a game of Chess, there may be 2 moves that you cannot decide between, in certain moods, you will do one, other moods, the other.
The same applies to the other player, both bring an element of luck into the game.
Then there is the outside things like flu, distractions in your mind, etc. etc.

I remember a game that Nigel Short lost against Kasparov, when interviewed later and asked why he didn't make a certain move that the commentators had thought he would make, he said "I played a variation of that move through in my mind and I lost, so I made the other move"
So here he made a move based on what he predicted Kasparov would do in response to each of his moves he himself would make in resonse to Kasparov's moves, hopefully it is clear to see that there is at least SOME luck in Chess, i.e. things you cannot be certain off.

But...........

Whether it's Chess, Poker, Football or anything......."Class will out" (wish I could remember who's quote that is).
more skill(i.e. Kasparov) equals less luck that can effect result.

thankyou for listening, just my thoughts
CLAY
 
Old
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Thu Mar 05, 2009, 11:02 AM
(#18)
Deleted user
:idea:
 
Old
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Fri Mar 06, 2009, 07:36 AM
(#19)
Deleted user
:arrow:
 
Old
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Sun Mar 08, 2009, 04:39 AM
(#20)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clay Knight
Very good question, I would say yes, because a computer playing chess still doesn't know for certain what the other computer will do, this by definition means an element of luck, and that is assuming that the computer plays perfect chess, which it doesn't, it just plays very well.

Re; playing Kasparov, no we would not win unless something very unlucky happened to him as you say, this is a clear example of how important skill is......."class will out"

However........

If you are not PERFECT at any given game,sport,competition, then by definition something is left to 'chance'
At a given stage of a game of Chess, there may be 2 moves that you cannot decide between, in certain moods, you will do one, other moods, the other.
The same applies to the other player, both bring an element of luck into the game.
Then there is the outside things like flu, distractions in your mind, etc. etc.

I remember a game that Nigel Short lost against Kasparov, when interviewed later and asked why he didn't make a certain move that the commentators had thought he would make, he said "I played a variation of that move through in my mind and I lost, so I made the other move"
So here he made a move based on what he predicted Kasparov would do in response to each of his moves he himself would make in resonse to Kasparov's moves, hopefully it is clear to see that there is at least SOME luck in Chess, i.e. things you cannot be certain off.

But...........

Whether it's Chess, Poker, Football or anything......."Class will out" (wish I could remember who's quote that is).
more skill(i.e. Kasparov) equals less luck that can effect result.

thankyou for listening, just my thoughts
CLAY
wow clay you put that perfectly people around me are always saying "if you would have put all the time (3 years so far) you have into poker, into chess, you would be a multi-millionaire." especially my father but i truly believe if i can really learn poker, i can make a living off of it, anyway i will be showing everyone i know your post.
 

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