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Do you go all in here?

Old
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Do you go all in here? - Fri Oct 25, 2002, 09:58 PM
(#1)
Deleted user
Lets say you are in the BB. It is the first hand of a $10,000 buy in NLHE tourney.

You have 22 or make it QQ even. All fold to the SB. You see the SBs cards. They are AKo.

Do you go all in here? An 11.5 to 1 favorite?

Randy/Randall
 
Old
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Fri Oct 25, 2002, 10:59 PM
(#2)
Deleted user
you mean 1.5 to 1.

No, I don't.

Only hand early in a tourney I am willing to risk all in is usually KK or AA.
 
Old
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Fri Oct 25, 2002, 11:06 PM
(#3)
Deleted user
Ethics aside? ABSOLUTELY ALLIN.
 
Old
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Sat Oct 26, 2002, 01:11 AM
(#4)
Deleted user
the jam has been spread. go all in.
 
Old
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Sat Oct 26, 2002, 01:39 AM
(#5)
Deleted user
When's that situation ever going to come up?
 
Old
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Sat Oct 26, 2002, 01:48 AM
(#6)
Deleted user
I knew I was too tight.

 
Old
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Sat Oct 26, 2002, 05:20 AM
(#7)
Deleted user
Do you mean 1.15 to 1?
What does the SB bet? All-in?
Sure you call - you're favourite.
 
Old
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Sat Oct 26, 2002, 06:56 AM
(#8)
Deleted user
 
Old
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Sat Oct 26, 2002, 09:39 AM
(#9)
Deleted user
Quote:
Everyone folding to the SB tells me that probably all the Aces & Kings are still in the deck.
Using the word "probably" in this context is IMO very erroneous.

Although this discussion comes up a lot, it is clear to most of those who have carefully studied statistics/probability that the effect is essentially negligible.

In a ten-handed game, if the first 7 players fold it is statistically indistinguishable (at least to two significant figures) from a 3-handed game.

If it matters that you're awed by being in a "big" event, then just flip a coin since that's how you're talking about playing anyway. If you have the best of it, take advantage thereof or try a different game.

One of the best things that can happen to you when you're playing a tournament is to bust out early and get a seat in a side game waiting for tilted losers in the tournament come over into your trap.
 
Old
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Sat Oct 26, 2002, 11:03 AM
(#10)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by geezer
One of the best things that can happen to you when you're playing a tournament is to bust out early and get a seat in a side game waiting for tilted losers in the tournament come over into your trap.
Geezer, I love your posts :lol: Please don't leave us!

Regards, Den
 
Old
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Down and Dirty - Sat Oct 26, 2002, 11:38 AM
(#11)
Deleted user
hmmm......interestingly enough, perhaps the size of your pair could make a difference here.

You didn't qualify soots (i.e. are your pair the same soots as his, etc.), so I ran a quick analysis on MaestroPoker, using both the worst and best possible situations for you: you have same/different soots as he does. I.e. he has AcKd and you have 2h2s or QhQs.

22 of same soots is a 1.077/1 favorite
QQ of same sootsi s a 1.287/1 favorite

22 of different soots is a 1.121/1 favorite
QQ of different soots is a 1.335/1 favorite

The difference between the pairs being straights, the difference between soots is you loose flushes.

Not sure i would risk it all on 7%. Absolutely positive I would risk it all on 33.5%.
 
Old
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Sat Oct 26, 2002, 12:38 PM
(#12)
Deleted user
I would FOLD!

I tend not to get caught up in microscopic advantages and generally look at two overcards against a pair as a coin flip. I don't study poker and put many of my waking hours into the game to get lulled into flipping a coin against an opponent who's ONLY CHANCE TO BEAT ME is to sucker me into this type of play!

I know from my opponents play of this hand that there is no decision to make. If that player was capable of throwing the entire 10K stack out there in this situation, then I KNOW that sometime in the near future that big stack is going to come out when I am the OVERWHELMING favorite. (And I know that even then I will sometimes lose when the poker gods allow that miracle runner-runner to save my opponents rear-end.)

Later,
Wendell
 
Old
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Sat Oct 26, 2002, 12:54 PM
(#13)
Deleted user
Oops!!!!

Gotta learn to read one of these days.

The above response is based on the incorrect assumption that the SB went all-in putting me to the decision with my pp.

In the event the SB flat calls, then the flop goes down without any further action.

As far as the SB blind raising, I would flat call up to a certain point. I would guess-timate that point would be a raise upto around 30% of my stack (3K). I say this for any rank of pocket pair since in this scenario QQ is no better than 22. The ONLY overcards on the board that concern me are Aces and Kings. Since I have dead on accurate knowledge on my opponents holding then I expect to be able to either fold (and still have enough chips to be competetive) or outplay my opponent after the flop.

OK...as usually there are a gazillion other what-ifs that could come into play but I'll stop here.

My head hurts!

Later,
Wendell
 
Old
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Flat Call - Mon Oct 28, 2002, 01:42 PM
(#14)
Deleted user
Like wstwst, I'm going to try to take the Flop as cheaply as possible. Never all-in with these slim odds.
- and I get to see the SB bet before I act pre-flop. Small bet, I call. Big bet, I'm gone!

I might trip up! Or whatever.

Also, the size of my pair dictates my willingness to call. The bigger the pair, the more I'll spend!
- remember your 2 2 will lose to a board of 3 3 x 7 7! The dreaded "paint 2nd pair."
- while T T in your hand gives more protection.

If we get to the Turn and it's still my PP vs. the AK, now I'm 6+ to 1 and they're going to pay to see the River! Probably at least 50% of stack!
 
Old
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Re: Flat Call - Mon Oct 28, 2002, 04:47 PM
(#15)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blind Bat 07
Also, the size of my pair dictates my willingness to call. The bigger the pair, the more I'll spend!
- remember your 2 2 will lose to a board of 3 3 x 7 7! The dreaded "paint 2nd pair."
- while T T in your hand gives more protection.
I really think that this point is very often overlooked, to the ultimate chagrin of the overlooker. Most often, this comes into play when you take a free look at the flop from the big blind with something like K3 and the flop comes K 3 5 rainbow. I can't tell you the number of times I (used to ?) really bet big in this instance assuming that I can make the KT or some other K lay down their top pair. They usually end up calling and even if they don't hit their kicker for 2 pair, the 5 can pair or you get a running pair and your 3 3 is counterfeited, so they have a lot more outs than you may at first realize.

Be careful out there folks!
 
Old
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Mon Nov 11, 2002, 06:58 PM
(#16)
Deleted user
Randy,

Absolutely not- these 11-10 situations are what one should strive
to avoid in tourneys generally, and especially when the blinds remain
extremely low in relation to the stack sizes, such as many of the NL events we play here at PSO, modelled after the WSOP championship event.

See Brunson's discussion of his early failures in tourneys before he realised how much he was giving up when shoving it all in there as, at most, a slight favourite. In a side game, tho, I'd often play the
11-10 scenarios, especially with a decent bankroll.

depraved
 
Old
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Mon Nov 11, 2002, 11:10 PM
(#17)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by depraved
See Brunson's discussion of his early failures in tourneys before he realised how much he was giving up when shoving it all in there as, at most, a slight favourite.
Brunson considered himself to be the best player in the tournament. This is what made it correct, from a tourney EV point of view, for him to avoid gambling for all his chips with only a small edge. Doesn't make it right for less than the best to follow his lead. More likely to be making a mistake if they did.
 

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