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Lucky Chances $10K Supersat

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Lucky Chances $10K Supersat - Mon Oct 28, 2002, 10:56 AM
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Lucky Chances $10K added World Poker Tour Supersatellite Trip Report

As some of you know from my prior trip reports, I played in 4 of the Lucky Chances World Poker Tour qualifier tourneys. These are $220 buyin (no rebuy) No Limit tourneys, held every Sunday night for the past couple of months. I won one seat in a single table sat, and paid my way into the rest. There have also been some qualifiers midweek, I think $100 buyin with rebuys, which I haven’t played in. LC scheduled a $10K added supersatellite for last night which was open only to those who qualified by finishing in the top 5 of one of these tourneys. I managed to finish 4th in one of them and so I qualified for this freeroll. Starting chips were awarded based on finishing position with 100 for 5th, 200 for 4th, on up to 500 for 1st. Some players finished in the top 5 multiple times, and so the starting stacks ranged from 100 up to 3000! I started with 200. While this was a freeroll, there were $100 rebuys for 1000 chips and a $100 addon for 2000 chips at the end of the 4th round.

My strategy was to try to take my tiny little stack and make it last until the add-on, at which time I would invest the $100 for 2000 chips. I was willing to make 1 rebuy if I had to, but I really wanted to avoid the rebuy. The rebuy theory I subscribe to is that you should rebuy when you feel like you are one of the better players in the field and you have an overlay, but given that the field here was comprised of all top 5 finishers, I didn’t believe I had that much if any of an edge.

I picked table 2, seat 9. Yes. I like the 9 seat and I like being seated at a low table which will break very late. I look at the list of players who have already picked seats at my table and there are 2 players with 1000, a couple with 600, and the rest with 200-400. When I sat down I looked around the table and realized that I knew a lot of the players and had a reasonable handle on their playing styles, having played against them before. That was a nice bonus and a side benefit from having played in more than one of the tourneys and also from playing some other tourneys. These guys were members of the local Bay Area “tournament circuit”.

So I’m starting with 200 and the blinds are 25/50. Shallow money doesn’t begin to describe my situation! Fortunately when the button is drawn it goes to the player on my left! I will have 7 hands before I need to take the blinds. Good for my strategy. I get my first playable hand, AJo, in MP on hand 7, I push 200 all in, get called only by the button who has started with a stack of 1000. She turns over QTs and proceeds to suck out early with a Q x x flop, a T on the turn, but the lovely and talented K on the river gives me the resuck broadway straight and I double through to 475.

A short time later, I again attempt a blind steal (or to double through). Blinds are 50/75, I am UTG+1, and I push 400 all in with pocket 8’s. The big blind (1800) calls and turns over ATs. The flop brings an Ace, the turn brings another A, and I am contemplating whether I am going to rebuy or call it quits when the 8 hits the river. Nice, I double through again! Now, if I manage my stack carefully I can make it to the addon without a rebuy. At the break, I have 600, make the rebuy, and I begin “the real tourney” with 2600.

Blinds are 200/400, the player to my left is short stacked at 1300 (blinds 200/400), and I’m the big blind. He predictably pushes all in and it’s folded to me. I look at Q8s and also see that I have exactly enough to cover him. I know this guy is a cash game NL player so he obviously is skilled in NL play. So I can expect him to make this move with much weaker holdings than is usual for an UTG raise. It was a relatively easy call, and I got lucky enough to hit my Q and he didn’t resuck and I doubled through while eliminating a good player.

At this time, I go on a well-timed mini-rush. Blinds are 300/600, I have about 8,000, and pick up QQ, xx, AK, and QQ in succession. I moved in with all three hands and picked up the blinds three times. I showed the last QQ to try to mitigate the suspicion I was speeding out of control.

I play very carefully from here on out. I manage to steal the blinds, always able to take a reasonable stealing hand into battle and don’t get called. We break to remove the 100 chips and there are 12 players remaining; I have 8,500 which is an average stack. They have announced they will award $3150 seats + $250 to the top 7 finishers, and 8 and 9 get $400 and $300 respectively.

Blinds 1000/2000, I have about 8,000. Money shallow for many of us. I am looking for a hand to go with, and I pick up AJo in MP and am able to open raise all in. The small blind, a big stack at about 20,000 calls and I am not a happy camper when he turns over QQ. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t have the Qh and I have the Jh. When the board ends up with 4 hearts, I double through at this critical point in the tourney. This is the hand that sets me up to make the final table. You HAVE to get lucky at some point in a tourney, and for the first time in a while I actually do get lucky at the right time! We are down to 10 players at 2 tables, going hand for hand (final table is 9 handed). There are no short stacks at our table, and 2 at the other. We are basically treading water waiting for one of those two stacks to bust, which finally happens. I pick seat 5 at the final table and get the button to boot! With the blinds at 2000/4000, that’s a great bit of luck. I have about 24,000.

Final table play. This one is going to be different. This tourney ends when 2 players get knocked out. Have to concentrate and focus ONLY on the short stacks. No tangling with anyone other than the small stacks. Playing the stacks is absolutely critical in this situation. I make one steal with 88, pushing in 12K with the blinds at 3000/6000 and two of the shorter stacks in the blinds. We lose one player, and end up with two players who are very short stacked in seats 1 and 3, with 5K each. As the button moves slowly around the table, it appears that everyone is pretty strategically sound; no one tries to steal the blinds at this point (I muck AJ face up in the SB on my only tempting hand). The blinds are at 4000/8000, I have about 32,000. There is just no point in taking any risks until we see if we can eliminate one of those 5K stacks when the blinds hit (funny thing is that if they both go out on the same hand, they would tie for 7th giving tournament director and all around good guy Matt Savage something to deal with, namely how he is going to split the 7th seat and the 8th place cash prize?).

The player in seat 1 must have just gotten horrible cards because he let himself get blinded down and did not make a stand; he definitely needed to have had made a move, any move, earlier and as a result he ended up all in for 5000 on his 8000 big blind. Of course, all 5 of the big stacks call, and the flop comes K X X, all diamonds. It is checked around, as expected, but the 6 seat unbelievably moves his remaining 12,000 all in! An incredibly bad move when all we need to do is check it down and try to eliminate this player to all win the same prize. A couple of the players are obviously upset because they have hit 2 pair on the flop (I have QTo) but no one is willing to risk that big chunk out of their stack and so everyone reluctantly folds and the guy turns over QJ diamonds! Not even the nut flush! Strangely, the all in player mucks his hand before the rest of the board can be dealt and we are all in the money! Not only do we win the seat, but we also get a nice Lucky Chances logo jacket!

More on that last hand. The two players who hit 2 pair on the flop are talking to the guy who moved all in and trying to explain to him why this was a bad move. He isn’t really listening, or refuses to see the logic. He claimed that since there was a side pot and since he was “sure” the other player didn’t have a good hand because it was a random hand (?) he had to do make the all in move to try to win the side pot. And besides, he felt it wasn’t ethical to check it down…he felt he had an ethical obligation to try to win the pot just like he would have in any other “normal” situation. When we explained that the chip counts would be irrelevant if one of these two short stacks went out since we all win then, and that he left the nightmare scenario open (the all in player has the Ad and maybe another diamond, we all fold and the turn or the river bring the full house to one of the players who hit two pair in the flop while the all in player hits his nut flush), he still didn’t really understand. Oh well, thankfully the nightmare didn’t happen!

Now I gotta figure out if I should play in the big event or sell my seat. $3K represents a 40% increase in my little poker bankroll, so while I would love to play this event, I am thinking I will sell the seat. But I’ve got two weeks to stew on it…anyone have any thoughts?
 
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Congrats, Bill - Mon Oct 28, 2002, 12:11 PM
(#2)
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- on a really nice win!

And what a perfect example of a dry pot - and the silliness of betting it in this situation.

One has to recall all the "dry pot" threads on this forum - the pros and cons - and remember:
- not every all-in pot is a "dry pot", but you'd better be able to recognize one when you see it.

nice job.
 
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to Play or Not to Play... - Mon Oct 28, 2002, 12:18 PM
(#3)
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My opinion is that you take the "freeroll" and play in the tournament. The experience gained from playing in that sort of high-level event alone would probably be worthwhile.

So - the choice is "sort of doubling" an adequate stash to be able to play at a slightly higher limit OR taking a shot at really getting lucky and booking a great win + getting invaluable experience.

Take the gamble. Go for it!!

Either way, good luck!
 
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Mon Oct 28, 2002, 05:00 PM
(#4)
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Good win. You must have been playing well to not only tread water but increase your stack a little in that critical period of the tournament.

I like your strategy of taking your freeroll and trying to double up twice to put you on par with the others' starting stacks without paying for it(with an extra re-buy). If you didn't get lucky, then the re-buy was an option, and you'd then play to win your next hand(not just get all the chips in and roll the dice on a marginal situation).

To be constructive, you were very fortunate in the Q8s hand. Even if he could raise as such with weaker holdings, it doesn't mean he is at that time. He had a better starting hand(even though not a powerhouse) than your Q8s, right? Since the "real" tournament had started, you want to look for a better situation to risk any significant chunk of you stack. Even a 11:10 situation is not a good one to be calling with almost all your stack. I understand you wanted to use that "get lucky one hand to have a comfortable stack to play well the rest of the tournament" strategy, but there should be better situations available(especially where you are the raiser not the caller).

Also, when you have $8000 at 300/600 you probably want to get more than the blinds for those good hands you pick up. All-in initial raises are not the best strategy. An all-in re-raise over the top of someone would have been better(with QQ or better) to either pick up the initial raiser's money also, or if called be in there with the best of it(vs. anything but AA and KK). If your 3x or 4x BB initial raise(1800 or 2400) is just called, you can see that the flop doesn't contain an Ace or King(or has a Queen) and push it all-in then. A lot of players would call an all-in raise pre-flop with AK, and at least this way you're not out of the tournament if an Ace or King flops. Later in the tournament an all-in is a good move when the money is shallower(and you're not just picking up $900 for your $8000 stack).

I think your move with AJo was a good one. That's the time to be the attacker, and if called hope you get lucky if you're called by a better hand(or hold on if your AJo started better). Remember "The Gap Principle". If you're the initial raiser it should take a much better hand for someone to call you(and that kind of hand is unlikely). You're really just trying to pick up the blinds and antes(which are significant at that stage) with AJo. I'd like to have better position to make that move, but at that stage MP is OK (IMO). You should have a handle on how your opponents would react to such a move. What's the current atmosphere at your table. Would someone with AQ or AK call such a raise? Are there hugh stacks yet to act after you(that would then not need a great hand to call you)? No way you should call a big bet with AJ, as the muck later on was a good move.

As far as selling your seat, I think that is your best move given that it represents a 40% increase of your bankroll. Ask yourself if your bankroll was 40% more would you pay the $3150 entry fee for one tournament chance, especially against a tough field. If it was only say 10% or less then it makes sense that you played the super sat. to enter the big tournament for a much smaller entry fee. Remember that most players(even world-class players) do not make the money in a tournament, so you'd have to play a number of them to not be at the mercy of your luck in one tournament.

These are just my opinions, and I'm no expert and I'm not trying to put your play down. I'm just trying to give good advice to a fellow PSO member to hopefully improve their game.

So, congratulations on your win :!:

Scott "DocH"
 
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Mon Oct 28, 2002, 05:34 PM
(#5)
Deleted user
Thanks Doc for the comments. My thoughts:
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocH
To be constructive, you were very fortunate in the Q8s hand....but there should be better situations available(especially where you are the raiser not the caller).
I got lucky, plain and simple. It was probably the one mistake I made in hindsight, but I really felt that he could have been raising with just about any two cards, what with the blinds about to chop his stack in half and leave him short of enough chips to be able to steal the blinds or represent any threat. I would have much preferred to have at least a K there but I got a bit overcome by the (minimally useful) suitedness of the hand. Funny thing was the very next hand I get Q8s again!

Quote:
Also, when you have $8000 at 300/600 you probably want to get more than the blinds for those good hands you pick up.
Good point. My thinking here was that we were somewhat shorthanded (I think 6 or 7 players) and we were just about to go to 500/1000 blinds, so I was happy to pick up enough blinds so that if the cards went cold, I could survive a few rounds of the blinds and still have some kind of stack. If this had been a typical tourney rather than a super sat where the top 7 get the same prize, I would have definitely played those hands differently.

Quote:
A lot of players would call an all-in raise pre-flop with AK, and at least this way you're not out of the tournament if an Ace or King flops.
Don't I know it! But at this point the table had gotten REALLY tight, and I thought I could take advantage of it.

Quote:
Remember "The Gap Principle".
It's like my golden rule now :lol:

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You should have a handle on how your opponents would react to such a move. What's the current atmosphere at your table. Would someone with AQ or AK call such a raise?
Probably. But I've got 4x the BB at this point, so if AJ isn't good enough to raise and steal the blinds, I don't have much time to wait for something better.

Quote:
Are there huge stacks yet to act after you (that would then not need a great hand to call you)?
Not huge, but 3x or 4x my stack.

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Ask yourself if your bankroll was 40% more would you pay the $3150 entry fee for one tournament chance, especially against a tough field.
No. I wouldn't invest $3K of my bankroll to enter this event.

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so you'd have to play a number of them to not be at the mercy of your luck in one tournament.
Very true, however there IS something to be said for doing this kind of thing ONCE just for the experience. That's what is causing me to waffle on it.

Quote:
These are just my opinions, and I'm no expert and I'm not trying to put your play down. I'm just trying to give good advice to a fellow PSO member to hopefully improve their game.
And I accept your comments in that spirit...thanks. I'm no expert either!
 
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Tue Oct 29, 2002, 04:32 AM
(#6)
Deleted user
To get the "big" tourny experience, you could play in one of the medium buy-in tournaments during an event(not the championship event). For $300-$500 you could play the same type of field(maybe a little easier) and still see some nice prize $ for a top finish($10k - $50k).

Come to the PSO convention in Jan. and play in the WPO event Sun. 1/12 (NLHE $500+40). Play in the PSO $200 tourn. if you want to face a REALLY tough field
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BTW, I agreed with your AJo MP all-in raise with $8000 at $1000/$2000. I was just mentioning the things to keep in mind when looking to make your attack. Late position without a larger stack than your stack yet to act would, of course be better, but MP is good enough. I always like to think about how much another round of blinds and antes are going to cost me, so I know what my stack will be like the next round and the one after that. If you can help it, you'd like to make a move before it is below 4xBB. With $3000 in blinds coming up (that would take your stack down to $5000) you really don't want to go through them. You have just a few hands and your position is getting worse. So, AJo looks pretty good - shove it all in
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So, sell that seat and use some of that money to come to the PSO convention and play in tournaments then.

See ya there,
Scott
 

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