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Probability of not hitting any Card's

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Probability of not hitting any Card's - Sun Jan 30, 2011, 04:41 PM
(#1)
ONiX360's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 116
Several Hours go by Only card's that hit's is the lowest card on board a 2 when im on Tilt i Get AA i get called with KQ he win's with an all in i get KK other guy has AA i Get AK to stay alive other Guy Has AA is this Rigged bs? just to screw me out of the game most of the game not hitting besides all this in a half hour why wouldnt Q 4 be anybetter awfull this is impossible if you ever watch the after game shows nobody ever has anything for multuple hand's but still rasing but realy you get some card's finaly after so long and sombody else has better cards? every single fkn time? i think not
 
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Sun Jan 30, 2011, 05:03 PM
(#2)
SET OF QUADS's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 32
BronzeStar
Dont take this game seriously. I have seen a lot of players call down to the river with absolutely nothing. No draw, no pair, nothing. They just hope to hit some miracle in order to suckout. One player even admitted to me that his only intention in this league is to donk the river and eliminate good players. This is how it is going to be so dont be surprised when some clown calls you with nothing and hits a miracle 4 card straight to send you to the hot dog table.
 
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Sun Jan 30, 2011, 08:45 PM
(#3)
tazz864's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,143
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ONiX360 View Post
Several Hours go by Only card's that hit's is the lowest card on board a 2 when im on Tilt i Get AA i get called with KQ he win's with an all in i get KK other guy has AA i Get AK to stay alive other Guy Has AA is this Rigged bs? just to screw me out of the game most of the game not hitting besides all this in a half hour why wouldnt Q 4 be anybetter awfull this is impossible if you ever watch the after game shows nobody ever has anything for multuple hand's but still rasing but realy you get some card's finaly after so long and sombody else has better cards? every single fkn time? i think not
Can someone please punctuate or translate?
 
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Sun Jan 30, 2011, 09:05 PM
(#4)
ONiX360's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 116
there's 8 Out's your Telling me i Can't hit a Ace or a freakin Queen like everyone else

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #56851830891: Tournament #347255053, $0.10+$0.01 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2011/01/30 20:53:25 ET
Table '347255053 149' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: tigerdik504 (1335 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: phucdacards (2075 in chips)
Seat 3: ONiX360 (3210 in chips)
Seat 4: mavantai (3445 in chips)
Seat 5: pokerace1338 (20 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 6: actor123 (1350 in chips)
Seat 7: shurikan48 (1350 in chips)
Seat 8: KRAZYHORSES (3100 in chips)
Seat 9: mack1957 (3375 in chips)
ONiX360: posts small blind 25
mavantai: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ONiX360 [Ad Qd]
pokerace1338: folds
actor123: folds
shurikan48: folds
KRAZYHORSES: calls 50
mack1957: folds
tigerdik504: folds
phucdacards: calls 50
ONiX360: raises 550 to 600
mavantai: calls 550
KRAZYHORSES: folds
phucdacards: folds
*** FLOP *** [5s 6s 3d]
ONiX360: checks
mavantai: bets 700
ONiX360: raises 1910 to 2610 and is all-in
mavantai: calls 1910
*** TURN *** [5s 6s 3d] [Ts]
*** RIVER *** [5s 6s 3d Ts] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ONiX360: shows [Ad Qd] (high card Ace)
mavantai: shows [Jh Jd] (a pair of Jacks)
mavantai collected 6520 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6520 | Rake 0
Board [5s 6s 3d Ts 4c]
Seat 1: tigerdik504 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: phucdacards (button) folded before Flop
Seat 3: ONiX360 (small blind) showed [Ad Qd] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 4: mavantai (big blind) showed [Jh Jd] and won (6520) with a pair of Jacks
Seat 5: pokerace1338 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: actor123 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: shurikan48 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: KRAZYHORSES folded before Flop
Seat 9: mack1957 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Last edited by ONiX360; Sun Jan 30, 2011 at 09:12 PM.. Reason: .
 
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Sun Jan 30, 2011, 09:07 PM
(#5)
ONiX360's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 116
Here's another one were the **** is the ****ing ace that flops on the board for everyone else every single ****ing time or even a ****ing queen

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #56851740360: Tournament #347255053, $0.10+$0.01 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2011/01/30 20:51:07 ET
Table '347255053 149' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: tigerdik504 (1360 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: phucdacards (1400 in chips)
Seat 3: ONiX360 (3860 in chips)
Seat 4: mavantai (3495 in chips)
Seat 5: pokerace1338 (20 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 6: actor123 (1350 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 7: shurikan48 (1350 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: KRAZYHORSES (2800 in chips)
Seat 9: mack1957 (3625 in chips)
tigerdik504: posts small blind 25
phucdacards: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ONiX360 [Qc Ad]
ONiX360: raises 150 to 200
mavantai: folds
pokerace1338: folds
actor123: folds
shurikan48: folds
KRAZYHORSES: folds
mack1957: calls 200
tigerdik504: folds
actor123 is connected
actor123 has returned
phucdacards: calls 150
*** FLOP *** [3d 7s Jc]
phucdacards: bets 50
ONiX360: raises 100 to 150
mack1957: folds
phucdacards: calls 100
*** TURN *** [3d 7s Jc] [Jd]
phucdacards: bets 150
ONiX360: calls 150
*** RIVER *** [3d 7s Jc Jd] [2d]
phucdacards: bets 50
ONiX360: calls 50
*** SHOW DOWN ***
phucdacards: shows [2h 2c] (a full house, Deuces full of Jacks)
ONiX360: mucks hand
phucdacards collected 1325 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1325 | Rake 0
Board [3d 7s Jc Jd 2d]
Seat 1: tigerdik504 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: phucdacards (big blind) showed [2h 2c] and won (1325) with a full house, Deuces full of Jacks
Seat 3: ONiX360 mucked [Qc Ad]
Seat 4: mavantai folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: pokerace1338 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: actor123 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: shurikan48 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: KRAZYHORSES folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: mack1957 (button) folded on the Flop
 
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Sun Jan 30, 2011, 09:09 PM
(#6)
AlphaAero's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 389
BronzeStar
consrtuctive as always Tazz,

Remember that the re-runs they show are final tables of huge tournaments where the blinds and antes are massive and position is much more impotant than hands.
 
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Sun Jan 30, 2011, 09:10 PM
(#7)
ONiX360's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 116
& another one were' is the ****ing Ace or Queen ace flops on the board every single time unless i have one its rigged to get my hopes up?

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #56847695931: Tournament #404010747, $1.00+$0.10 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (50/100) - 2011/01/30 19:15:35 ET
Table '404010747 107' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: ONiX360 (15245 in chips)
Seat 2: davidibañez7 (3460 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: chickensanta (3195 in chips)
Seat 4: marcpicon (5780 in chips)
Seat 5: massaro_vet (2000 in chips)
Seat 6: Kirshil (1380 in chips)
Seat 7: AAkrausikAA (5770 in chips)
Seat 8: KdaimosK (8085 in chips)
Seat 9: Alicebonbon (8500 in chips)
ONiX360: posts the ante 10
davidibañez7: posts the ante 10
chickensanta: posts the ante 10
marcpicon: posts the ante 10
massaro_vet: posts the ante 10
Kirshil: posts the ante 10
AAkrausikAA: posts the ante 10
KdaimosK: posts the ante 10
Alicebonbon: posts the ante 10
chickensanta: posts small blind 50
marcpicon: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ONiX360 [Qc Ad]
massaro_vet: folds
Kirshil: raises 1270 to 1370 and is all-in
AAkrausikAA: folds
KdaimosK: folds
Alicebonbon: folds
ONiX360: calls 1370
davidibañez7: folds
chickensanta: raises 1815 to 3185 and is all-in
marcpicon: folds
ONiX360: calls 1815
*** FLOP *** [6c 8s 2c]
*** TURN *** [6c 8s 2c] [4c]
*** RIVER *** [6c 8s 2c 4c] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
chickensanta: shows [8h 9h] (a pair of Eights)
ONiX360: shows [Qc Ad] (high card Ace)
chickensanta collected 3630 from side pot
Kirshil: shows [Jh Kd] (high card King)
chickensanta collected 4300 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7930 Main pot 4300. Side pot 3630. | Rake 0
Board [6c 8s 2c 4c 7h]
Seat 1: ONiX360 showed [Qc Ad] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 2: davidibañez7 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: chickensanta (small blind) showed [8h 9h] and won (7930) with a pair of Eights
Seat 4: marcpicon (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: massaro_vet folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Kirshil showed [Jh Kd] and lost with high card King
Seat 7: AAkrausikAA folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: KdaimosK folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Alicebonbon folded before Flop (didn't bet)
 
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Sun Jan 30, 2011, 09:32 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
pretty easy to suss this out...

KQ (since you do not say whether it is suited or not) will BEAT AA about 14% of the time.
this, of course, assumes the KQ gets to see all 5 cards. Since you said he was all-in, that is the case...

(Source: Pokerstove.com equity calculator)

Versus 8 opponents, the chance of you having KK and someone else having AA is roughly 3.84%.
Of that 3.84%, you will LOSE about 80% of the time, and will win about 20% of the time.
.8 x 3.84 = 3.072% you will lose.
We will only look at the chance you will lose, since had you won I doubt you'd be whining.

(Source: http://www.sitandgoplanet.com/multit...-kk-vs-aa.html )

since again you do not state whether your AK is suited of off suit, we will apply the equity of AK versus AA as the combination of the two:

AK beats AA about 8.2% of the time it gets to see all 5 cards.

Now...

.14 x .03072 x .082 = .035% of the time that ALL of these circumstances will happen to you in the space of 100 hands.

To put it another way, that is 35 times in 100,000 hands.

To put it still ANOTER way, if the average tourney length is 100 hands, and if you play 100 PSO events per month, that is 1200 PSO Events per year. 1.2 x .35 = .42 times this "should" happen to you in a year.

I guess today was just your day.


BUT ON A SIDE NOTE!

You got AA (1 chance in 227) and KK (1 chance in 227), and probably didn't even consider the chance AGAINST your good fortune of receiving 2 large group 1 hands in a single tourney.

So I'd suggest that enxt time you try looking at the glass as half full, instead of half empty.
 
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Sun Jan 30, 2011, 09:35 PM
(#9)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ONiX360 View Post
there's 8 Out's your Telling me i Can't hit a Ace or a freakin Queen like everyone else

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #56851830891: Tournament #347255053, $0.10+$0.01 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2011/01/30 20:53:25 ET
Table '347255053 149' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: tigerdik504 (1335 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: phucdacards (2075 in chips)
Seat 3: ONiX360 (3210 in chips)
Seat 4: mavantai (3445 in chips)
Seat 5: pokerace1338 (20 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 6: actor123 (1350 in chips)
Seat 7: shurikan48 (1350 in chips)
Seat 8: KRAZYHORSES (3100 in chips)
Seat 9: mack1957 (3375 in chips)
ONiX360: posts small blind 25
mavantai: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ONiX360 [Ad Qd]
pokerace1338: folds
actor123: folds
shurikan48: folds
KRAZYHORSES: calls 50
mack1957: folds
tigerdik504: folds
phucdacards: calls 50
ONiX360: raises 550 to 600
mavantai: calls 550
KRAZYHORSES: folds
phucdacards: folds
*** FLOP *** [5s 6s 3d]
ONiX360: checks
mavantai: bets 700
ONiX360: raises 1910 to 2610 and is all-in
mavantai: calls 1910
*** TURN *** [5s 6s 3d] [Ts]
*** RIVER *** [5s 6s 3d Ts] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ONiX360: shows [Ad Qd] (high card Ace)
mavantai: shows [Jh Jd] (a pair of Jacks)
mavantai collected 6520 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6520 | Rake 0
Board [5s 6s 3d Ts 4c]
Seat 1: tigerdik504 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: phucdacards (button) folded before Flop
Seat 3: ONiX360 (small blind) showed [Ad Qd] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 4: mavantai (big blind) showed [Jh Jd] and won (6520) with a pair of Jacks
Seat 5: pokerace1338 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: actor123 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: shurikan48 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: KRAZYHORSES folded before Flop
Seat 9: mack1957 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
You actually have a better chance NOT to hit a pair on the flop, than you have to hit one.

Starting with un-paired cards, you will flop a pair about only 1 time in 3.

You should ask yourself why you donk-shove your entire stack into a VERY coordinated board without any pair at all?
 
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Sun Jan 30, 2011, 09:37 PM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ONiX360 View Post
& another one were' is the ****ing Ace or Queen ace flops on the board every single time unless i have one its rigged to get my hopes up?

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #56847695931: Tournament #404010747, $1.00+$0.10 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (50/100) - 2011/01/30 19:15:35 ET
Table '404010747 107' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: ONiX360 (15245 in chips)
Seat 2: davidibañez7 (3460 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: chickensanta (3195 in chips)
Seat 4: marcpicon (5780 in chips)
Seat 5: massaro_vet (2000 in chips)
Seat 6: Kirshil (1380 in chips)
Seat 7: AAkrausikAA (5770 in chips)
Seat 8: KdaimosK (8085 in chips)
Seat 9: Alicebonbon (8500 in chips)
ONiX360: posts the ante 10
davidibañez7: posts the ante 10
chickensanta: posts the ante 10
marcpicon: posts the ante 10
massaro_vet: posts the ante 10
Kirshil: posts the ante 10
AAkrausikAA: posts the ante 10
KdaimosK: posts the ante 10
Alicebonbon: posts the ante 10
chickensanta: posts small blind 50
marcpicon: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ONiX360 [Qc Ad]
massaro_vet: folds
Kirshil: raises 1270 to 1370 and is all-in
AAkrausikAA: folds
KdaimosK: folds
Alicebonbon: folds
ONiX360: calls 1370
davidibañez7: folds
chickensanta: raises 1815 to 3185 and is all-in
marcpicon: folds
ONiX360: calls 1815
*** FLOP *** [6c 8s 2c]
*** TURN *** [6c 8s 2c] [4c]
*** RIVER *** [6c 8s 2c 4c] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
chickensanta: shows [8h 9h] (a pair of Eights)
ONiX360: shows [Qc Ad] (high card Ace)
chickensanta collected 3630 from side pot
Kirshil: shows [Jh Kd] (high card King)
chickensanta collected 4300 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7930 Main pot 4300. Side pot 3630. | Rake 0
Board [6c 8s 2c 4c 7h]
Seat 1: ONiX360 showed [Qc Ad] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 2: davidibañez7 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: chickensanta (small blind) showed [8h 9h] and won (7930) with a pair of Eights
Seat 4: marcpicon (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: massaro_vet folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Kirshil showed [Jh Kd] and lost with high card King
Seat 7: AAkrausikAA folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: KdaimosK folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Alicebonbon folded before Flop (didn't bet)
This is simply the 2nd of the 2 times in 3 you WILL miss with un-paired start cards.

Get a grip.

You are just using your lack of balance, your lack of knowledge aobut poker odds, and your gut feeling that SOMETHING is conspiraing agains you, to jsutify huge over plays of your hands.
 
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Sun Jan 30, 2011, 09:42 PM
(#11)
john.duce's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 232
when u have 2 overs u have 6 outs, not 8
 

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