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Re-donk-ulous

 
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Re-donk-ulous - Sat Feb 05, 2011, 11:15 PM
(#1)
ClubbedNuts's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 61
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I firmly believe that I made the correct play in this situation, however, in retrospect it's indicated that perhaps it was ill-advised.. I dunno... Either way, I'd do it again.. Maybe this is the type of play that makes me prone to seemingly constant suck-outs.. I would like to include that the hand just prior, the villain showed pocket A's and got sucked-out on by two pair, so it was clear to me that pocket A's on two consecutive hands was highly unlikely; which factored into my decision to call.. I even mentioned to my girl friend that folding was probably the smart thing to do, and that I'll likely suffer a suck-out.. Any advice..?

http://www.flopturnriver.com/Poker-H...BB-1316347.php
 
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Sat Feb 05, 2011, 11:54 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
This is an interesting scenario. I've made a lot of money from people on hands after they've lost big. Tilt is so much fun to exploit. Getting it all in preflop with AK also guarantees that you get to see all 5 cards for one price. If they did not have a tendency to jam the pot preflop with that kind of stack size, then I'd have called there, too. I don't know if that's a generally +EV approach, though.
 
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Sun Feb 06, 2011, 12:35 AM
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Cyis's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 193
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That's actually pretty close to the beating I took this evening in the PSO tourney. Had the same player crush my stake even after doubling up twice in between to try and stay alive. Though in neither case was I all-in pre-flop.
 
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Sun Feb 06, 2011, 03:43 AM
(#4)
ClubbedNuts's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyis View Post
That's actually pretty close to the beating I took this evening in the PSO tourney. Had the same player crush my stake even after doubling up twice in between to try and stay alive. Though in neither case was I all-in pre-flop.
This is gut-wrenching just in text format.. I can imagine (directly relate) to what it must have felt like to watch your monster hands get tossed like rags.. I agree w/ your post-play anaysis of not raising enough pre, but you also speak the truth when you say to exercise caution and be prepared to put all your chips in the middle before making a heavy raise pre-flop in the PSO SL..

I caught a big stack early on w/ A-Ko and was looking to strike while the iron's hot.. I made a few judgement calls after the original scenario to try and get some of my stack back.. Although I'm sure I was a bit tilted, I managed to keep it at a minimum and play strong pocket pairs agressively both pre and post flop.. I managed to gain a few in order to gamble a few, but plateuaed around the 3k mark.. Later on I managed to double up w/ K-9 to keep me fighting toward ITM.. I ultimately busted out a few hundred before the money..

http://www.flopturnriver.com/Poker-H...P1-1316403.php
I had a MONSTER here on the flop and wanted to gain as much value as possible here and checked after just a few moments as if to consider betting my Q-J/J-T or something to that effect.. It produced the desired results as the CO pushed his chips to the middle.. I caught a bonus when the SB decided to follow suit and was ecstatic to see the turn come down the way it did..

http://www.flopturnriver.com/Poker-H...BB-1316401.php
The dynamic of the table and size of the blinds made me understand that this was probably going to be my best shot to gain any considerable amount of chips as I was confident I would get at least two callers on my re-raise..Here I was also able to get the two callers on my bet along with and small bonus from the SB..

Last edited by ClubbedNuts; Sun Feb 06, 2011 at 04:11 AM.. Reason: broken links
 
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Sun Feb 06, 2011, 09:00 AM
(#5)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClubbedNuts View Post
... I would like to include that the hand just prior, the villain showed pocket A's and got sucked-out on by two pair, so it was clear to me that pocket A's on two consecutive hands was highly unlikely; ...
Poker hands are independent events. The odds of being dealt pocket aces is 220:1 in each and every hand you play.
 
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Sun Feb 06, 2011, 11:01 AM
(#6)
Cyis's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 193
BronzeStar
Yeah the two double ups I got between the beatings... The first was with 8Qs from the BB after a raise and re-raise from the MP seats that made it an all-in pre-flop for half the pot for me. This time I caught both cards on the board for 2 pair and the rest of the pot went to the A-high as the re-raiser held AKs. The second was with a pair of 9s from the BB again and villain ended up playing A-high card from the board.

Neither hand on my part was particularly strong pre-flop but being short stacked I had to draw a line in the sand somewhere when in the BB. Had I not been short stacked I might have passed on one or both hands I ended up doubling on.
 
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Sun Feb 06, 2011, 01:43 PM
(#7)
ClubbedNuts's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
Poker hands are independent events. The odds of being dealt pocket aces is 220:1 in each and every hand you play.
Understandably so when taking into consideration that each operand possesses a constant complimentary event when accounting for a sample space of only 221 hands.. However, as Poker players, we all know that neither of these is truly constant over a broader probability sample.. There have been times where I go days w/ out seeing pocket A's only to be followed by seeing several occurrences with-in <220 hands.. I understand that the independence of Poker hands are collectively exhaustive, but my assumption was based more on the probablity of these events occurring consecutively..

Granted, calculus isn't a strong suit of mine, I still felt confident in my assumption..
 

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