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not really a bad beat, just want thoughts...

 
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not really a bad beat, just want thoughts... - Sun Feb 06, 2011, 07:08 PM
(#1)
UM_YEH?'s Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 11
BronzeStar
Reads on fredo were, very aggressive and loose, raised with pretty much anything VPIP was roughly 65% PR was 42... so was hard to get a good read on him, a few showdowns that i seen were of him playing small connectors suited or unsuited... Other villian just took a beat for the majority of his chips, so was tilting... My thoughts here preflop are : i put Fredo on 10s maybe even jj, and the other villian here with q10, k10... should i have even got involved here? should i have just folded, if so why?


PokerStars Game #57239714913: Tournament #358190842, $2.00+$0.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (125/250) - 2011/02/06 17:13:40 CT [2011/02/06 18:13:40 ET]
Table '358190842 122' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: npem (14295 in chips)
Seat 2: tiaguini22 (5675 in chips)
Seat 3: UM_YEH? (8245 in chips)
Seat 4: sly37_1972 (5718 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 5: EldoradoRT (22625 in chips)
Seat 6: Fredo58 (10037 in chips)
Seat 7: Reginusya (10251 in chips)
Seat 8: donvito1st (2877 in chips)
Seat 9: Fishman0308 (4671 in chips)
npem: posts the ante 30
tiaguini22: posts the ante 30
UM_YEH?: posts the ante 30
sly37_1972: posts the ante 30
EldoradoRT: posts the ante 30
Fredo58: posts the ante 30
Reginusya: posts the ante 30
donvito1st: posts the ante 30
Fishman0308: posts the ante 30
Reginusya: posts small blind 125
donvito1st: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to UM_YEH? [Ac Qc]
Fishman0308: calls 250
npem: folds
tiaguini22: folds
UM_YEH?: calls 250
sly37_1972: folds
EldoradoRT: folds
Fredo58: raises 500 to 750
Reginusya: folds
donvito1st: folds
Fishman0308: calls 500
UM_YEH?: calls 500
*** FLOP *** [4c Kc 6d]
Fishman0308: bets 500
UM_YEH?: calls 500
Fredo58: raises 8757 to 9257 and is all-in
Fishman0308: calls 3391 and is all-in
UM_YEH?: calls 6965 and is all-in
 
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Sun Feb 06, 2011, 08:11 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I converted it for my benefit. I can't read books without pictures.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 2.2 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 30 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t14295)
MP1 (t5675)
Hero (MP2) (t8245)
MP3 (t5718)
CO (t22625)
Button (t10037)
SB (t10251)
BB (t2877)
UTG (t4671)

Hero's M: 12.78

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, Q
UTG calls t250, 2 folds, Hero calls t250, 2 folds, Button bets t750, 2 folds, UTG calls t500, Hero calls t500

Flop: (t2895) 4, K, 6 (3 players)
UTG bets t500, Hero calls t500, Button raises to t9257 (All-In), UTG calls t3391 (All-In), Hero calls t6965 (All-In)

Total pot: t21716

The initial limp with AQs might have been a little weak, since it was easily strong enough to raise. Afterwards, you were caught in an awkward situation with some crazy opponents showing ridiculous strength, probably thinking you were really weak, since you limp/called, then made a really small probe bet (edit: nm, you didn't bet, you just called. you did look weak, though). If I were hyper-aggressive and/or tilted and had much of anything, I probably would have jammed the pot, too.

I think I would have folded in your spot, and I would have been upset with myself for not raising preflop (then folding when I likely would've been reraised). I'd bet that at least one of your opponents was ahead, so you would've been drawing just to the flush. But that's my guess. I'll let JDean post something smarter.


Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sun Feb 06, 2011 at 08:15 PM..
 
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Mon Feb 07, 2011, 03:52 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
You shoulda asked yourself not "am I ahead" here. You should have been asking "do I HAVE to play here?"

When you limp AQs, and flop the nut draw with 1 overcard, you can have as many as 12 outs (any A, 9 clubs). If you are putting the shoving opponent on a WEAK hand (hence his shove), versus just his shove you may also have 3 Qs as outs.

"Mathematically", in an all-in situation where you are guarenteed to see the river, 12 outs will give you roughly a 51.6% chance to win. so you may well have been MATHEMATICALLY "ahead"...

I still think you made 2 major "mistakes" here:

1: Were you even SURE it was a "coin flip"?

And...

2: Did you have to put your tourney life at risk here in a "coin flip"?

#1: "RANGING AN OPPONENT"

Reading your intro to this, it seems to me that you are falling prey to a very "typical" mistake of post hand review: Only considering what you WANT to "see".

Your "read" of this LAG opponent is that he is on JJ/TT, and don't you find it a bit "funny" the read you have is giving you your maximm of 15 outs?

That kinda "justifies" your shove here, since you'd be a 64.5% "math favorite" by the river.

If he is so loose, mightn't he be on K4/K6, and "worried" about a flush draw?

That would only give you a max of 9 outs.

Or maybe he is on AK, and you have just 9 outs.

Maybe he is on a set, which means the 6c is "dead" to you, and you only have 8 outs.

The slightly more than 10 BB start stack for the UTG player can also make it possible to assign a percentage to the likelihood that HE has called on a flush draw of some sort, thus you have "reason" to believe that at least some of the time, you do NOT have all 9 flush outs, but rather only 7...

The long and the short of this is:

Your "range assessment" for this opponent, as stated in this intro, ONLY accounted for the absolute MOST FAVORABLE situation for you, 64.5% math favorite. You could easily have been a 35/65 DOG, or even a 30/70 DOG to the guy who had you covered.

Sorta changes the "complexion" of your "race" call for all your stack, doesn't it?

When you are contemplating an all-in on a stack that does not "need" to get all in, you MUST work to consider all possibilities, not just those which are "favorable" to what you probably want to do anyway- calling.

#2: TOURNEY EQUITY vs. CHIP EQUITY

I am sure you know that cash game situations are all about Chip Equity (as long as you are funded to play at your chosen level). The reason for this is that if you LOSE when a mathematical "under-dog", you can REPLACE chips you have lost out of your pocket. So as long as the odds are paying you an amount in excess of the chance you are taking, you are making a positive equity decision.

An MTT differs in that you have no ability to re-load out of pocket, so in order to realize a portion of the prize pool, you are faced with the conflicting "needs" of stack preservation and chip accumulation.

The desire for stack preservation is there not only because "once you are out, you are out", but also is there because chips you LOSE means any subsequent double up you get will be smaller if you lose chips early, see?

So...

Altogether, this means in MTT games, CHIP EQUITY (whether you are getting the right "price" to call) is NOT your only concern.

From this, ou should easily be able to infer that the DEEPER your stack is in relation to the BB, the less willing you should be to put your entire stack "at risk" simply because you are getting the odds to do so. Example:

You hold 100k in an MTT, and the blinds are 250/500. You have 200 BB. You are the 2nd largest stack in the event, with 25 players left.

You raise to enter the pot, making it 3 BB to go, holding AK.

The ONLY stack at the table who has you covered shoves all in. Do you call?

NO!

A: The money at the final table is MUCH LARGER
B: You have a stack large enough to EASILY get you to the final table, even if you fold away 3 BB here.
C: DOUBLING here does increase your overall chance to "win" the tourney, but does not "guarentee" it. LOSING here does guarentee you are out.
D: AK is a "decent" hand, but when faced with an all-in by a bigger stack, and when you hold a good size stack, you MUST consider that AK may be a small UNDERDOG to even a hand like 22, and may be a big underdog to KK/AA.

All this adds up to the fact your only choice should be to FOLD, and wait for a better spot...

Now to YOUR hand...

You started with 33 BB in this hand, and are on a very decently workable stack for your table.

You are into this pot for a limp, then a call of just 500, so you "only" have 3 BB in the pot.

You flop pretty decently for your AQs, but hardly "awesomely".

You see an all-in AND a call in front of you. That means your A hi is almost CERTAIN to be "behind", and must "hit" to win (if you continue).

Your chances to win are AT BEST 64.5%, but only on a VERY NARROW read range for the opponent who put you all-in, and may be as little as aobut 30%.

If you FOLD, you are "giving up" less than 10% of your total stack, and if you CALL (and win), that chip up you make is no "guarentee" you will cash (you'll go to about 19k, and there is a 14k stack at you table who can put ou right back where you started if you make just one "mistake").

Adding all this up, do you STILL think a call here is "smart"?

...Or do you MAYBE think with 30 BB left you could have found a better spot?
 
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Mon Feb 07, 2011, 08:25 PM
(#4)
UM_YEH?'s Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 11
BronzeStar
Thank you Jdead, the comments you made definitely made me look more into the picture as whole.. i really do believe i should have found a better spot or situation to chip up.. and after reading your post i will try and adjust my thinking a bit more.. too let you know, i did end up hitting the nut flush, i was pushed in with the larger stack holding AA and the caller with k rag... thank you guys!!
 
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Mon Feb 07, 2011, 08:26 PM
(#5)
UM_YEH?'s Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 11
BronzeStar
Jdean, sorry lol
 
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Mon Feb 07, 2011, 09:41 PM
(#6)
met3or's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 11
Fantastic and insightful post JDean, really appreciate your inputs.
 

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