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calculating probabilities with 2 cards to come

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calculating probabilities with 2 cards to come - Tue Feb 08, 2011, 05:30 PM
(#1)
gonchi1207's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 17
hi again !


I know how to calculate odds and probabilities when i only have to consider the next card for example before the turn if i hold:

Ac-Kc

the flop is the :

5c-6h-9c


and i calculate my outs as any club , any K, any A then i have 15 outs

so the odds at the turn are 32 to 15 or slightly worse than 2-1

but how can i know the odds or probabilities calculating with 2 cards to come based on the number of outs i have? or even with 3 cards to come ( this would apply if i have to call a huge bet preflop to weigh wether or not i should call based on what i consider would give me the best hand)




i do not know if i explained myself clear, sorry if i didnt

thanks in advantage !
 
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Tue Feb 08, 2011, 07:46 PM
(#2)
!!!111Dan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,290
One simple rule to follow is the 2,4 rule. You take the # of outs you have and multiply by 4 on the flop to get your percentage to win the hand. Multiply the outs by 2 on the turn to get your percentage to win the hand. These are not exact, but they are very close most of the time.
On your example, you have 15 outs after the flop. This formula will actually show you as a favorite to win the hand. Again, they aren't perfect, but very close.
I'm not sure I understand the part of your question with having 3 cards to come. I am guessing you mean preflop. Well, that you will have to find in some charts or lesson. But this is only attainable if you know the opponents hands. There is a program called pokerstove, in which you can put your opponent on a range of hands, but not an exact one. Then the program can help you see where you stand against a range of hands.
Hope this helps and best o' luck!
 
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Sun Feb 20, 2011, 05:01 PM
(#3)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
BronzeStar
I don't get what your saying at all.

1) 32:15 = 32/15:15/15 = 2.13

2) You have 9 to 15 outs

3) Well use 15

one care 15(2) = 30%

30%
30/100=0.30
1-0.30=0.70
0.70:0.30
0.70/0.30:0.30/0.30
2.33:1

two cards
15(4) = 60%
0.67:1

Theres a rule if you have 9 or more out but I don't know it off the top of my head.

If we do this as odds you can see we're a little off.

47-15=32/15=2.13:1
 
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Mon Mar 21, 2011, 09:11 PM
(#4)
Mr_7s's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 13
BronzeStar
I don't understand your math calculations at all...

But, just to illustrate, your very last calculation is screwed up. It is not 15/32, it's 15/46 which equates to about 32.6% with 1 card to come. It's only 46, because the turn card took one card away from the calculations.

So, as previously stated, 2 x15 = 30%, and it's approximately the odds you have. Of course, the other player(s) have cards as well, which may or may not include some of your outs. So, probably the 30% is closer to the real odds than the 32.6%.

Hope that helps

Actually, I think I figured out that you are calculating odds. The right number with only 46 cards to come would be 2.06:1. Which probably equates to the 32.6%. 1 time you will get your card, the other 2.06 times you won't.

Last edited by Mr_7s; Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 09:30 PM.. Reason: correction
 
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Fri Jul 22, 2011, 07:35 PM
(#5)
Henry Minute's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by gonchi1207 View Post
hi again !


I know how to calculate odds and probabilities when i only have to consider the next card for example before the turn if i hold:

Ac-Kc

the flop is the :

5c-6h-9c


and i calculate my outs as any club , any K, any A then i have 15 outs

so the odds at the turn are 32 to 15 or slightly worse than 2-1

but how can i know the odds or probabilities calculating with 2 cards to come based on the number of outs i have? or even with 3 cards to come ( this would apply if i have to call a huge bet preflop to weigh wether or not i should call based on what i consider would give me the best hand)




i do not know if i explained myself clear, sorry if i didnt

thanks in advantage !
There are lots of sites on the internet that give full details on how to do these calculations and it is great fun to work through the examples.

However, when you are playing there really isn't time, so I have printed out a chart that I have taped to my PC for quick reference. This is just one example Odds Chart. There are loads of others and I suspect that there might even be one on PokerStars somewhere, I just haven't found it yet. There are also others that give the odds as percentages if that's what you prefer.
 

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