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Did I Overdo Things? (Flopped Set w/ a Scary 3Flush)

 
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Did I Overdo Things? (Flopped Set w/ a Scary 3Flush) - Tue Feb 08, 2011, 11:50 PM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I opened with pocket deuces (why not?). I got way more callers than I expected, and three cards to a flush hit the board (yay ).

I called the probe bet, with the intention of betting to scare away flush draws if the turn didn't bring a spade that didn't pair the board. I got a favourable turn, so I repotted (more or less). I figured that since most players around the .25 parts probably don't quite know when they're priced out of a flush draw, I'd smash the pot to death to get my point across. If I got reraised, I'd have folded.

I just want to know if you guys would have handled this any other way. If I did something obscenely wrong, by all means, point it out. I'm looking for other perspectives and creative ways to address this situation. Help me out!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 0.25 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Panicky (UTG+1) (t9430)
MP1 (t10853)
MP2 (t12014)
MP3 (t3075)
CO (t6625)
Button (t5047)
SB (t6685)
BB (t9919)
UTG (t5841)

Panicky's M: 31.43

Preflop: Panicky is UTG+1 with 2, 2
1 fold, Panicky bets t415, 1 fold, MP2 calls t415, 3 folds, SB calls t315, BB calls t215

Flop: (t1660) J, 2, K (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets t200, Panicky calls t200, 2 folds

Turn: (t2060) 8 (2 players)
BB bets t400, Panicky raises to t2860, 1 fold

Total pot: t2860

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 01:07 AM..
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 12:23 AM
(#2)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
BronzeStar
Raise size is to low pre.

Raise on the flop don't wait for the turn.
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 12:38 AM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
The raise preflop was small just 'cause that's my style. It works for me, and allows me to control the pot a bit more. At this particular table, it allowed me to steal a lot, but fold when I got raised. Also, it allowed me to choose when to commit to a pot if somebody reshoved. It was getting close to the point in the tourney when I would be pricing myself in just by opening for 3x and getting reshipped on by a shorter stack.

I could have raised the flop, but there were two problems with that:

1) I hadn't yet seen what two of the players behind me wanted to do. Either one could have flopped a flush.

2) Raising here just asks to get shoved on. People love to checkraise draws on the flop, but are less eager on the turn. I thought that would be a safer place to plant my feet in this hand.

If you have counterarguments that would suggest that my arguments aren't totally sound, let me know. This is the logic I was going on.
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 03:57 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Pre-flop: nuttin' wrong.

the chip distribution is pretty even, meaning any stack can hurt any other stack here.

In that situation, I HATE open limping, especially in EP. Your smallish raise MAY be intrepreted as inordinate strength, with you having a strong DESIRE for a call (or re-raise), so it is a nice potential "blocker" open raise to "protect" a set mining shot with this chip distribution. Even if someone feels it is "weakness" (which in fact it is), you can easily fold to a re-raise for little harm.

You get what you WANT, a "cheap" multi-way pot for your set mining "shot".

On the flop: Again, nuttin' wrong.

Since you played for a set mine, and hit your set, you cannot run in fear of this tiny bet. Worst case scenario is he has flopped a flush, and you still have outs to a boat (well, the REAL "worst case" is he flopped a set of Js or Ks, but THOSE are probably re-raising pre-flop!).

Your flat call is quite nice too, since it does "control the pot" on this WET board, and puts you into a nice price to draw to your boat, OR let's your opponent continue to dump chips into the pot on a lesser hand.

On the turn: WTF!

Your raise over the villain;s second "post oak" bet is WAY larger than it has to be; can you REALLY expect him to call you with a worse hand that your set of 2s here?

Sure, I can see you firing a raise to prevent this guy from drawing to a spade (if he is drawing to that), but there is only 1 card to come. If he is drawing, you need only to deny odds to a 20% shot to hit the river (well, even LESS than that, since the 8s is "dead" to a flush draw, so he has 8, not 9, live outs). This means if you bet an amount which lays no more than 3.9 to 1, you are DENYING the right price for a flush draw. A raise of about 575 more (to 975), strictly speaking, would have been "enough", but realistically a raise to 1400 or so probably would have been better...

Instead you launch 2460 more????

What do you do if he DOES have the flush, and he is "walking the dog"? He is likely to shove on you, and would you be happy to now fold away more than 1/3rd your stack? Would you be happy CALLING, and seeing a flush?

When you are sitting on a hand which you strongly think is the best hand, as you probably believe after 2 "weak" bets by this opponent, you really want to seek to bet enough to DENY odds to a draw that can beat you, but bet a small enough amount to INVITE a call.

Read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundame...eorem_of_poker

You bet here is not likely to get a call by any hand you can beat. Any hand that is AHEAD of your set is going to call (at least), or put you all-in.

If you read the fundemental theorem of poker, that means your bet encourages your opponent to do EXACTLY what he would have done if he KNEW what your hand is: if he is behind he folds, and if ahead, he calls or shoves.

If your opponent is a SEVERE calling staion, and he is likely to call this amount on top/top, 2 pair, or even a flush draw and a single pair, then this bet is MUCH better. But you give no "read" indication for you to think that in this hand, thus I must conclude that this is really a "mistake".

It is dis-connects in applying consistent and solid bet strategies like this which will either COST you value you may have otherwise gotten in the form of additional "weak" calls, or which may make you extremely vulnerable to bluff shoves that COSTS you the larger amount you put into the pot.

You might want to think on this one a bit...

Last edited by JDean; Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 04:16 AM..
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 09:46 AM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Gah. When you put it like that, I hate the play. It reminds me of something I heard Howard Lederer say in an interview a little while back. The two reasons to raise are to get worse to call, or better to fold (which I've probably read in a number of other places, too, since it's a basic lesson ). I didn't think about that here, I just got skittish and threw money at the pot to scare everything into folding. I probably did cost myself a lot of chips, here, and I didn't realize that an intelligent opponent could exploit my scare-raise by reraising.

I'll try not to do that again.
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 10:23 AM
(#6)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
The raise preflop was small just 'cause that's my style. It works for me, and allows me to control the pot a bit more. At this particular table, it allowed me to steal a lot, but fold when I got raised. Also, it allowed me to choose when to commit to a pot if somebody reshoved. It was getting close to the point in the tourney when I would be pricing myself in just by opening for 3x and getting reshipped on by a shorter stack.

I could have raised the flop, but there were two problems with that:

1) I hadn't yet seen what two of the players behind me wanted to do. Either one could have flopped a flush.

2) Raising here just asks to get shoved on. People love to checkraise draws on the flop, but are less eager on the turn. I thought that would be a safer place to plant my feet in this hand.

If you have counterarguments that would suggest that my arguments aren't totally sound, let me know. This is the logic I was going on.

Your Preflop raise sucks because your OOP and your inviteing people to call you. You will end up playing your hand more face up. It's going to be harder to take the pot down over all. You should be makeing a 3x raise so you get less callers. I wouldn't go any less then 2.5x. You want to be HU. Playing this hand just to set min OOP with a low preflop raise is going to cost you money in the long run -EV. If your just going to set mine then fold preflop.

Both you reasons are wrong.

1) You need to protect your hand.

2) You want to get rid of some of those players.

3) you want draws to pay.

4) You want value out of your hand.

5) If you get shoved on your only a 2:1 dog. On the turn you pick up 10 out against a flush and your a head of a draw.

There are a lot of draws on this board. Flush and straight. Also his bet is very weak. Leting a draw get to the turn cheap is bad. As far as your turn bet it's to high. What the hell do you think he's going to call that big bet with only a flush. He's fold's all the hands you want him to call with and only calls with a big hand which you are a dog to. Another thing to think about is you are more likely to get a call on the flop then the turn by a wider range.

Last edited by R1J1J; Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 10:47 AM..
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 10:55 AM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by R1J1J View Post
Both you reasons are wrong.
That's just hurtful.

If you're going to bash my reasoning, please do it politely. Allow me to defend.

Quote:
Originally Posted by R1J1J View Post
Your Preflop raise sucks because your OOP
Not a bad point, but I pretty much don't care about position if I'm stealing from UTG, which I was here. If I got called, then I was set mining, in which case being OOP usually doesn't matter quite as much (here was an exception, because of the three spades). Basically, I bet if I hit, I fold if I miss. No extra money goes in the pot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by R1J1J View Post
There are a lot of draws on this board.
There might possibly be a made hand or two as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by R1J1J View Post
Leting a draw get to the turn cheap is bad.
Not if betting here could cost me my stack. Like we have both astutely pointed out, I was OOP and had two players left to act. Getting raised here would have required me to fold. I was in less trouble if I just waited to the turn, which would not be a spade 80% of the time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by R1J1J View Post
As far as your turn bet it's to high.
We've already established that. But very true.

Quote:
Originally Posted by R1J1J View Post
Another thing to think about is you are more likely to get a call on the flop then the turn by a wider range.
Good point, but since that range includes better hands than mine, I was flatting for information. You can't get value out of a hand that you're not going to win.

Quote:
Originally Posted by R1J1J View Post
5) If you get shoved on your only a 2:1 dog. On the turn you pick up 10 out against a flush and your a head of a draw.
This is an MTT, not a cash game. Even if it's a +EV play, I can't always make a call on a 20% shot to win, for most of my stack. I have to assume that if I get shoved on, that I am not against a draw, and am actually against a made hand.
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 11:20 AM
(#8)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
BronzeStar
Not a bad point, but I pretty much don't care about position if I'm stealing from UTG, which I was here. If I got called, then I was set mining, in which case being OOP usually doesn't matter quite as much (here was an exception, because of the three spades). Basically, I bet if I hit, I fold if I miss. No extra money goes in the pot.

Your play is -EV. You call that a steal? What a joke... All you are doing is asking to get called by a very wide range of hands OOP. Any SC, Axs-Qxs maybe even more, any pair which all beat you. If that's your play LP can auto call you with any 2 and take the pot away when you miss which most of the time you will and then fold when you hit. People can free roll off of you

Look at all the hands that can call you:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,585,564,576 games 3.682 secs 973,808,956 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.650% 42.77% 00.88% 1533638748 31456206.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 56.350% 55.47% 00.88% 1989013416 31456206.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 63s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, ATo+, KQo }




There might possibly be a made hand or two as well.

There are more draw combo's then flushes! Do you know how to range poeple? So a A flush draw, K, or J never bets? Wrong


Not if betting here could cost me my stack. Like we have both astutely pointed out, I was OOP and had two players left to act. Getting raised here would have required me to fold. I was in less trouble if I just waited to the turn, which would not be a spade 80% of the time.

Not betting cost you value!!! Also the pot is small. Its not likely you are going to get shoved on and if you do you may have the odds to call any way.



This is an MTT, not a cash game. Even if it's a +EV play, I can't always make a call on a 20% shot to win, for most of my stack. I have to assume that if I get shoved on, that I am not against a draw, and am actually against a made hand.

I you should not be folding in a +EV spot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last edited by R1J1J; Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 12:03 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 11:39 AM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Is that you, Puciek?
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 11:50 AM
(#10)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
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Good point, but since that range includes better hands than mine, I was flatting for information. You can't get value out of a hand that you're not going to win.

This is where your wrong. What information do you gain when a wide range of hands calls that weak ass bet on the flop? None.

Take a hand like 78

There is 1 combo of 78s and 15 others and 6 combo's with one .

1/16=0.0625(100)=6.25% Chance

6/16=0.375(100)=37.5% chance

As you can see draws are much more likely. Now if he would reraise after you raise then you can narrow his range down. Also if he has a flush and the board pairs you have a better chance of getting paid off.


Good point, but since that range includes better hands than mine

Wrong

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

297,990 games 0.015 secs 19,866,000 games/sec

Board: Js 2s Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.606% 73.23% 01.38% 218221 4098.00 { 2d2h }
Hand 1: 25.394% 24.02% 01.38% 71573 4098.00 { 22+, ATs+, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, A2s, K2s+, Q9s+, Qs8s, Qs7s, Qs6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, J9s+, Js8s, T9s, Ts8s, Ts7s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 9s6s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 8s5s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 7s4s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 6s3s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 5s2s, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s, ATo+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Last edited by R1J1J; Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 12:13 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 12:12 PM
(#11)
o0o0AcEo0o0's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 218
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Hey, Nice thread guys. Very enlightening to see a good debate like this.
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 12:19 PM
(#12)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
BronzeStar
Its not a debate his play is just and he doesn't want to change it. I don't really care. I was trying to help him out but what ever.
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 12:22 PM
(#13)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Thanks, o.

I'd appreciate it if someone would help explain to me the merits of R's argument. I'm kind of lost on a few points. I'm a little concerned that a few of those points might be incorrect, just because I think my line was fine, if not very good, up until the turn, but it makes sense that I lost value by not betting the flop. I think that in an MTT scenario, the choice to call on the flop was optimal, but I'm starting to question it.

And R, please be civil. I have reported many a post on this forum simply for being rude, because it is against forum policy. Do not slander my play. Criticize it all you want, but be nice.
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 12:54 PM
(#14)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
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I'm a little concerned that a few of those points might be incorrect, just because I think my line was fine, if not very good, up until the turn

The only one that has wrong points is you.

llabwol: raise flop.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/23...things-976327/

LoL

Last edited by R1J1J; Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 12:59 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 01:00 PM
(#15)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Do not go Hog wild with the Numbers RJ...

Based on the info Panicky Poker game, there is NOTHING "wrong" with a "small ball" raise oop with 22.

You cannot apply strict odds reasoning to pre-flop raise sizing. A PF raise is a LOT more aobut your "table image" and the aggression level of your opponents, than it is about "ranging" opponents. This is ESPECIALLY true aobut ANY oop raise pre-flop!

If the numbers and the odds lain were what mattered to his raise, you'd see us all back in the uber-tight Hold 'Em days of the 70's, with 4x, 5x, 6x pre-flop raises "standard", and almost NO ONE "re-stealing" without the nuts!

There isn't a thing wrong with his pre-flop raise with 22, unless he doesn't know ENOUGH to muck it on ANY flop that doesn;t give him a set, and to muck it versus any re-raise.
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 01:08 PM
(#16)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
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Yeah
thats why he got 3 callers. Ok if you make the raise bigger and you are willing to bet face cards on dry boards as well who make more money in the long run vs fit or fold play? 2+ callers vs 1 or 2 which is easy to play post flop?
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 01:11 PM
(#17)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Like I said, I wasn't expecting three callers. The table had been allowing me to steal some with my small raises. This hand was unusual.
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 01:14 PM
(#18)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
BronzeStar
Not really. With such a weak open this should be the norm. The odds are more then good enough to try and bust you. Also you not thinking of the times you'll run into set over set because you made such a weak open. An open of 2.5 would get you the blind more often.

Last edited by R1J1J; Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 01:16 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 01:21 PM
(#19)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Fact is simple: RJ thinks there is simply 1 way to play a hand (obviously).

There isn't just 1 way to play a hand.

There is NOTHING WRONG with Panicky's pre-flop raise size, so long as he "knows" what to do if certain things happen.

There is NOTHING WRONG with Panicky's decision to check the flop, unless he does not know enough to muck a set if a 4th spade comes and his opponent bets big.

Each of these are STYLE CHOICES, and so long as they are made consciously, with full awareness of their implications, you CANNOT say they are "right or wrong". You can say YOU PREFER to do something differently, but since you were not at the table you do not have the full "information" upon which to assess the play for validity.

The bet on the turn, however, is NOT open to "stylistic interpretation"; the amount he raised was either TOO BIG, or TOO SMALL.

If Panicky felt he was "ahead" on the turn, then he annot put in 1/3rd and fold to a shove...he shoulda shoved for value if he thought there was ANY chance he gets called with worse. 'Course that would probably be "wishful thinking", and pretty DUMB, but you COULD do it if there is ANY chance worse calls you. This is why I state that the bet he DID make would be "fine" if he thought it might get called by a lesser hand. I am not saying the bet he made is "GREAT", merely that one could make a CASE for it versus some players. And the bet he made STILL puts him in a "trick bag" if the opponent re-shoves over it, thus an ALL-IN shove may have been more "proper" if you are SURE you are ahead...

(i do NOT advocate this shove at all by the way, and I only toss this out as being of note had you asked something DIFFERNT, like "was my thought process behind shoving here right?" after shoving and losing.)

The long and the short of this hand is there IS a "mistake" made here.

That "mistake" is in the form of making a decision HARDER than it must be if the opponent re-shoves OR calls if ahead though, and FOLDS if he is behind.

All else you might rag on is simply your "opinion", and those are like ass-holes...everyone has one!
 
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Wed Feb 09, 2011, 01:25 PM
(#20)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by R1J1J View Post
Yeah
thats why he got 3 callers. Ok if you make the raise bigger and you are willing to bet face cards on dry boards as well who make more money in the long run vs fit or fold play? 2+ callers vs 1 or 2 which is easy to play post flop?
22 should be EASY to play on just ANY flop...no set, no bet!

If he makes the raise bigger, then he is more vulnerable to any RR as well. If he limps, he is more vulnerable to a RR. ANY RR behind him pre-flop should see him FOLDING his set mining hand.

If you are going into the flop holding 22 with the idea that you are going to "take the pot no matter what", you are FAR better off mucking that cheese dick hand BEFORE the flop; you will lose far more in the long run playing it the way you suggest RJ, than you will lose playing it the way Panicky did.
 

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