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Cash Game, Top 2 facing a strong bet and a call

 
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Cash Game, Top 2 facing a strong bet and a call - Fri Feb 11, 2011, 03:38 PM
(#1)
siberianex's Avatar
Since: May 2010
Posts: 38
Stats:
BB is a Loose Passive who is running 33/0 but only over 21 hands
BTN is a regular who is running 14/10, but is very passive with aggression factor of 1.36

My min bet is my standard open in LP in cash games and there are reasons for why I do it, so lets not discuss this. I am looking for opinions for the rest of the hand especially the river.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

UTG+1 ($70.05)
MP1 ($55.65)
MP2 ($23.45)
Hero (CO) ($52.50)
Button ($46.35)
SB ($50.25)
BB ($15.70)
UTG ($54.55)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 10
4 folds, Hero bets $1, Button calls $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.25) 9, 3, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, Button calls $2, BB calls $2

Turn: ($9.25) 10 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, Button calls $6, BB calls $6

River: ($27.25) 3 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $16.50, BB calls $6.70 (All-In), Hero ??????

Last edited by siberianex; Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 03:53 PM..
 
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Fri Feb 11, 2011, 03:54 PM
(#2)
SnafuinMD's Avatar
Since: May 2010
Posts: 49
well looks like fold to me the i feel the btn has over pairat min and BB could have an A 3

Last edited by SnafuinMD; Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 05:00 PM.. Reason: b
 
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Fri Feb 11, 2011, 04:43 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I had a hard time ranging your opponents, because the stats you gave confused me. You call the BB a LAG, but the guy doesn't bet once in this hand. Was this a LAG, and if so, was it a good LAG or a bad LAG? Those are relevant pieces of info. (I just reread your post, and it says LAP now, so maybe I just confused myself)


Also, more reads on the button would help. With what you gave, I tried to range your opponents and Pokerstove your equity. I can't really understand the button having anything weaker than two pair here, and since most reasonable two pair possibilities here beat you, I think you should fold. You need roughly 15% equity to make the call profitable to take the main pot (I'm ignoring the side pot here). I figure you have at best 3%, unless the button is on a stone bluff, which makes no sense, since they seem to be caught between the preflop aggressor who has bet multiple streets, and an apparent calling station.
 
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Fri Feb 11, 2011, 05:00 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Top pair only, it is probably an easy fold.

Top 2, I think I am forced to moan and call.

I am HATING the fact the board paired the river, and puts me behind an over pair, but there is just too much a chance he (BTN) is floating you and your small-ish bets, to give up on this river bet.

'Course my opinion is very READ based, and beyond passive players often liking to apply pressure on particular "streets" with their aggression, rather than employ GENERAL aggression, nothing else leans me this way. If you had info showing that he (the BTN) will bet sets like this, or will NEED an over pair to bet like this here, then you can fold.

But in general, calling $16.50 to win as much as $48.20, makes me think the BTN is floating "air" often enough to make a call ok.

It is really the BB who I think may have caught you, but he is probably so "deep" in this pot that he is calling here with a pp under the T.

Fact is, it is a BAD spot to be in, but I kinda think you have to call.

Last edited by JDean; Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 05:02 PM..
 
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Fri Feb 11, 2011, 06:49 PM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
The big thing that made me dismiss this as a folding situation was the fact that the OP needs to commit $16.5 to win $40 against two opponents. The remaining side pot is only $10, which means that if either of the other players has made anything on this board, the best the OP can hope to get back is roughly $10. With the river pairing the board, that improves any station flatting with bottom pair to better than top two, as well as anyone with the overpair. It really was a disaster of a river, like you said, J, and I think it turns top two into nothing more than a bluff catcher. Even if the button is bluffing, the small blind having a hand that beats the OP is all we need for the call to be bad. Up against the blind and the button, I think it's more of a moan-and-fold situation than a moan-and-call.

Are you sure you'd call here? It just looks too much to me like the button has a boat. I'm not that good at correctly identifying when somebody's floating, but the button did float twice, for almost 20% of their stack. Seems like a very sticky spot, and your call seems to be based on the assumption that both the blind and the button are on complete bluffs.
 
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Fri Feb 11, 2011, 10:24 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
The big thing that made me dismiss this as a folding situation was the fact that the OP needs to commit $16.5 to win $40 against two opponents. The remaining side pot is only $10, which means that if either of the other players has made anything on this board, the best the OP can hope to get back is roughly $10. With the river pairing the board, that improves any station flatting with bottom pair to better than top two, as well as anyone with the overpair. It really was a disaster of a river, like you said, J, and I think it turns top two into nothing more than a bluff catcher. Even if the button is bluffing, the small blind having a hand that beats the OP is all we need for the call to be bad. Up against the blind and the button, I think it's more of a moan-and-fold situation than a moan-and-call.

Are you sure you'd call here? It just looks too much to me like the button has a boat. I'm not that good at correctly identifying when somebody's floating, but the button did float twice, for almost 20% of their stack. Seems like a very sticky spot, and your call seems to be based on the assumption that both the blind and the button are on complete bluffs.
The key for me is not worrying aobut the boat, but is worrying about the BTN holding an over pair. I am not sweating the boat due to the texture of the turn. If BTN had a set here, why isn't he raising the 2/3rds pot turn bet?

Siberian's $6 bet there makes the pot a pretty good size, and he really needs some definition of whether Yan (Siberianex) is on a hand that "deserves" the double barrel. It adds a goodly number of draws, and means he kinda has to fire a set here (if he has one).

The fact Yan's bet, and the BTN's CALL, takes the "effective SPR" between the 2 bigger stacks down to around an easily "committable" 2.2 tends to argue in favor of this being a "float" on something like 66/77 or even AK. Essentially, Yan's 2nd "barrel" should tell an aware player with a STRONG hand that the turn here is the point to get value in, and if the BTN just CALLS you gotta expect he is "praying" for a river check, to fire the bluff.

Of course this "assumes" the BTN is a decent player, and not an ABC type...

The same thing may be true for the BB short stack: I'm guessing if HE isn't on the "over pair", he holds something like A9/K9 or JT, and is calling in the vain belief his hand may be "good".

Of course as I said in my original response, this is NOT a place where I'd like to be wrong, and that is VERY possible. 33/0 for the BB gives me enough reason to think A9/K9 or JT, and "chasing" for his stack, and 14/10 makes me think a truly "large" pp is probably getting raised to enter; if BTN has the over pair, my guess is it is JJ, but I hold to a primary read of 66/77/AK type hand.

If I am wrong, I live with it.

But since I only HAVE to be right about 1 time in 4, I think I take my chance with top 2 here.
 
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Fri Feb 11, 2011, 10:39 PM
(#7)
Ace King 61's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 421
BronzeStar
I would fold cause the BB has 83 probably and button has A3 maybe. Either way I think hero is beat.
 
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bluffs - Fri Feb 11, 2011, 10:43 PM
(#8)
Russell1078's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 2
BronzeStar
bb had ak,aa qq jj button had ak,aq aa aj

Last edited by Russell1078; Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 10:57 PM.. Reason: add hands to range
 
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Sat Feb 12, 2011, 01:55 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
some interesting ranging going on here. The bb doesn't have premium pairs. Everybody doesn't suddenly have a 3 on the river. When you're ranging opponents it's important to start with a range that makes sense and narrow it as you go. A lot of the hands stated don't make any sense for these guys to hold.

The bb is a clown. He's got fishy stats over a small sample, and is playing a short stack. Not worried about him at all. His range of hands is very wide and we beat all of it except holdings containing a 3 (and this guy could actually have a 3, but this is a very small part of a wide range).

The button is a 14/10 reg, he's probably not going to show up with a 3. He's also probably not going to show up with AK or a big pair as he's more likely to 3b those pre, although some big pair combos are possible (big aces are not, he never gets to the river with AK or AQ). A lot of his flatting range pre is going to be medium to small pairs, AT-AQ, and suited connector type hands. I understand the concern is a lower than normal post flop aggression factor (sample size?). But he's still probably raising with monsters on the flop or turn on a wet board, so it's less likely he flopped a set or turned a straight. Most of his flop and turn calling range will consist of moderate made hands like 1 pair, draws, or pair+draw combos.

When we check the river, he may well think we're finally giving up. The most likely flopped draw, straight draw + overs (QT or JT) is going to bet for value once we check, since he thinks he probably has the best hand. Yes he could show up with something like JJ here, but there are way more combos of JT and QT than there are JJ, plus hands like A9 which would also bet for value (rightly) against the fish. We should be betting this river card with overpairs to the board, so it genuinely looks like we're giving up now.

Given the price we're getting from the pot, and the fact that we induced value bets from many worse hands as well as bluffs, this is an easy call imo.
 
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Sat Feb 12, 2011, 02:14 PM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
some interesting ranging going on here. The bb doesn't have premium pairs. Everybody doesn't suddenly have a 3 on the river. When you're ranging opponents it's important to start with a range that makes sense and narrow it as you go. A lot of the hands stated don't make any sense for these guys to hold.

The bb is a clown. He's got fishy stats over a small sample, and is playing a short stack. Not worried about him at all. His range of hands is very wide and we beat all of it except holdings containing a 3 (and this guy could actually have a 3, but this is a very small part of a wide range).

The button is a 14/10 reg, he's probably not going to show up with a 3. He's also probably not going to show up with AK or a big pair as he's more likely to 3b those pre, although some big pair combos are possible (big aces are not, he never gets to the river with AK or AQ). A lot of his flatting range pre is going to be medium to small pairs, AT-AQ, and suited connector type hands. I understand the concern is a lower than normal post flop aggression factor (sample size?). But he's still probably raising with monsters on the flop or turn on a wet board, so it's less likely he flopped a set or turned a straight. Most of his flop and turn calling range will consist of moderate made hands like 1 pair, draws, or pair+draw combos.

When we check the river, he may well think we're finally giving up. The most likely flopped draw, straight draw + overs (QT or JT) is going to bet for value once we check, since he thinks he probably has the best hand. Yes he could show up with something like JJ here, but there are way more combos of JT and QT than there are JJ, plus hands like A9 which would also bet for value (rightly) against the fish. We should be betting this river card with overpairs to the board, so it genuinely looks like we're giving up now.

Given the price we're getting from the pot, and the fact that we induced value bets from many worse hands as well as bluffs, this is an easy call imo.
Ok, I'm a scared NIT! :-)

Still, I do not LIKE having to call here, even though I would have simply because A9/K9/JT type hands are potentially here.

So it might be "easy" for oyu, but I call with trepidation.
 
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Sat Feb 12, 2011, 02:36 PM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Ok, I'm a scared NIT! :-)

Still, I do not LIKE having to call here, even though I would have simply because A9/K9/JT type hands are potentially here.

So it might be "easy" for oyu, but I call with trepidation.
You're not a scared nit, you said call.

When I say easy call, or I'm not scared to call, it's because I think the call will be profitable. It doesn't mean I think we're good 99% of the time here (we're not). I understand and expect that we will sometimes be looking at JJ. Or the clown in the BB will show up with 53s. We will sometimes lose this pot. But I'm not worried about this pot. I'm concerned with making good long term decisions, and if I feel the call will be profitable over thousands of trials, then I will like it because I like making money.
 
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Sat Feb 12, 2011, 02:41 PM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
BTW I was discussing this hand with Yan, I'm not a fan of the check/call or check/fold line on this river. We want to get value from the fish, I think the optimal line is bet/fold. We should be betting top 2 for value here as there are a lot of worse made hands that can call us (fish calls everything... reg will call us with A9-J9, JT, QT. Plus the reg is passive and Yan says was 12 tabling. He will also just call with JJ and not raise us ever with JJ/QQ. But hands like A9 etc he may just check down behind us when we check. So by check/calling we're losing the same to JJ/QQ as those probably value bet, but not making anything from worse made hands. By bet/folding we get value from worse made hands in his range. I'd bet about half the pot, maybe even a little less, to ensure 9x type hands call us. And, a passive 12 tabling reg is never bluff raising the river ever, which is why I would bet/fold not bet/call.
 
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Sat Feb 12, 2011, 10:27 PM
(#13)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
BTW I was discussing this hand with Yan, I'm not a fan of the check/call or check/fold line on this river. We want to get value from the fish, I think the optimal line is bet/fold. We should be betting top 2 for value here as there are a lot of worse made hands that can call us (fish calls everything... reg will call us with A9-J9, JT, QT. Plus the reg is passive and Yan says was 12 tabling. He will also just call with JJ and not raise us ever with JJ/QQ. But hands like A9 etc he may just check down behind us when we check. So by check/calling we're losing the same to JJ/QQ as those probably value bet, but not making anything from worse made hands. By bet/folding we get value from worse made hands in his range. I'd bet about half the pot, maybe even a little less, to ensure 9x type hands call us. And, a passive 12 tabling reg is never bluff raising the river ever, which is why I would bet/fold not bet/call.
I'm not putting this next bit out because you typed this Dave, this had occured to me as well...

I didn't like the river check either. It did open the chance for the BTN to fire hard on the riv, and give a tough choice. I think I would have probably fired a half pot bet on the river too...

I didn't address that though, because the OP's question was regarding a river CALL.

I had occured to me that my hand had ENOUGH value though to continue betting the river, but did not have enough value to really want to try inducing a bet (because of the difficulty of the paired 3 for our hand).
 

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