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Playing Against a Drawing Hand (And a Guy Who Seriously Overplays Them)

 
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Playing Against a Drawing Hand (And a Guy Who Seriously Overplays Them) - Tue Feb 15, 2011, 04:10 AM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
So, I'm still learning how to use the new replayer, so the FTR one will have to suffice for now. Anyway. One more analysis for the night.

Mid phase of the same MTT as the other hand. I've chipped up, in part thanks to the villain, who bluffed of some of his stack to me a few hands back. I'm new at this table, and I only have notes on this one player, who's been pretty active. The villain, who has built his stack by virtue of impressive luck, seems to overplay drawing hands. I've seen him call flops and turns with bad odds and almost none implied, to show down a drawing hand. Luckily for him, they got there a few times.

In this hand, I drew a monster in the hole, and on the flop, which was pretty drawy, I felt like the villain's bet almost screamed drawing hand, so I took a line to price him out, with the possibility of changing it if he seemed to have something else. On the turn, I really felt like he had a draw, so I made a somewhat large bet for value.

The river is where I really question what I did. I recognize that the river completed some draws, and it was possible that the villain had me beat. I thought A8, 78, or 89 were the most likely hands he would be holding (Edit: those were what I believed to be the most likely hands, were he drawing to a straight. His actual range was much wider, since I saw him draw to flushes with much broader than those kinds of holdings. I never actually tried to range him, since I just felt like he was on a draw, and he seemed to have some really wide starting hand standards that I hadn't quite gotten my head around.), and I thought that the villain was bad enough to call with a busted straight draw, which is why I went all-in. Did I misplay any part of this hand, and in particular, the river? I'd like to get your opinions, and as always, I love hearing from anyone who wants to post. Thanks guys!




PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.4 Tournament, 60/120 Blinds 15 Ante (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t15353)
MP2 (t10363)
CO (t2120)
Panicky (Button) (t6150)
SB (t3360)
BB (t960)
UTG (t4618)
UTG+1 (t3688)

Panicky's M: 20.50

Preflop: Panicky is Button with K, K
2 folds, MP1 calls t120, 2 folds, Panicky bets t395, 2 folds, MP1 calls t275

Flop: (t1090) 9, 7, 10 (2 players)
MP1 bets t200, Panicky raises to t900, MP1 calls t700

Turn: (t2890) 10 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Panicky bets t1525, MP1 calls t1525

River: (t5940) Q (2 players)
MP1 bets t600, Panicky raises to t3315 (All-In), MP1 calls t2715

Total pot: t12570

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 06:42 AM..
 
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Tue Feb 15, 2011, 01:11 PM
(#2)
freddysw's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 179
BronzeStar
Hi Panicky I am new to hand analysis forum but read it all the time.

Last night in Live Training the topic was "Ranging your opponent" and your post made me think about Dave's lessons - it was a great class btw..

I agree his range is wide pre flop and the flop probably gives him at least an inside straight draw. His small bet after the flop and his call of your raise would make me think he has a 10, and I think his range could easily include j-10 or 10-9 suited. When he checks calls your turn bet and leads out again for a small bet on the river I have to put him on a 10 as I'm not sure what your KK is beating except the hands you mentioned like a-8etc.

The only play I really question is reraising his small river bet, I don't see the point. I would have just called. That bet by the villain is so weird it causes me concern which is one of the points Dave brought up in class regarding unusual bets.
Plus, 2700 in chips at the blind level you were at is not horrible and a simple call guards against the chance he has the 10.

Also since I'm new to this I notice you don't list the result of the hand, this is on purpose I assume so we give feedback without knowing the result?

Thanks

I hope he was just an idiot and did not have a 10.

Last edited by freddysw; Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 01:12 PM.. Reason: wording
 
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Tue Feb 15, 2011, 04:32 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Thanks for the reply freddy! I totally agree with the reraise of the river bet. It should have been suspicious to start. I think I just convinced myself that he had a busted straight or flush and put it all in. I also kind of considered myself pot-committed after the turn bet, but I should have slowed down to consider what the villain's range actually was, and to think of what I was actually beating.

Regarding the possibility of the villain having a , I was thinking, and I came up with a less crazy line I could have taken that would have addressed that. Had I checked behind on the turn and reevaluated when the river came, I would have minimized my winnings in that particular hand, but I would have controlled the pot so that I'd still likely have had a pretty comfortable stack had I lost. I probably could have reraised more on the flop to begin with, just because I'm pretty sure the villain would have called, and I was pretty sure I was ahead at that point.

I did intentionally leave out the results so that they wouldn't bias any discussion. I'll post them in a few hours. I thought that the results were actually pretty interesting...

 
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Tue Feb 15, 2011, 09:49 PM
(#4)
ClubbedNuts's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 61
BronzeStar
Hey, P..

I def have to agree with freddy on this one in regard to your raise on the river.. Considering stack sizes, you're obviously at a disadvantage.. However, your assessment of the villain's previous play weighed heavily upon your decisions, I'm sure.. I've made a few wise decisions to flat-call in situations such as this; some fortunate and others not so much.. I cringe when I could've easily represented better hands by semi-bluffing and likely produced fold(s) as a result..

Yet, there needs to be some err of caution, especially among many of the loose cannons around the PSO SL.. It's a tricky situation in any event, but my assessment of the situation suggests a pocket pair (7's..?) developing into a FH based on the villain's betting/calling.. With the board pairing T's this is a scary situation.. I feel that your pre-flop raise was a bit timid, IMO.. From a personal standpoint, I typically play my premiums w/ a higher degree of aggression, but that's just me..

Anyhow, the PSO SL is a venue for learning, which Lord knows, I could use a few more lessons.. It seems to me that the dynamic of the SL has shifted a bit since the changes, and I've adjusted my play accordingly as of late; which is proving to be effective.. I'm working more on reads/opponent ranges and have found alot of success.. Hopefully, this is a tend that will continue and strengthen my game..

Good luck..!
 
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Tue Feb 15, 2011, 10:49 PM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Alright, thanks for the responses guys. Just to address ClubbedNuts' point about raising bigger for bigger hands: I prefer for my raise sizes to be completely unreadable. I am really opposed to raising bigger preflop because I think it might signify too much strength. I'm posting the hand that the villain played below. Here's how it played out from perspective #2:


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.4 Tournament, 60/120 Blinds 15 Ante (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Villain) (MP1) (t15353)
MP2 (t10363)
CO (t2120)
Button (Panicky) (t6150)
SB (t3360)
BB (t960)
UTG (t4618)
UTG+1 (t3688)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, J
2 folds, Hero calls t120, 2 folds, Button bets t395, 2 folds, Hero calls t275

Flop: (t1090) 9, 7, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets t200, Button raises to t900, Hero calls t700

Turn: (t2890) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t1525, Hero calls t1525

River: (t5940) Q (2 players)
Hero bets t600, Button raises to t3315 (All-In), Hero calls t2715

Total pot: t12570

Results:
Button had K, K (two pair, Kings and tens).
Hero had K, J (straight, King high).
Outcome: Hero won t12570
 
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Tue Feb 15, 2011, 11:55 PM
(#6)
ClubbedNuts's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 61
BronzeStar
You're correct; the results are interesting.. It's funny considering I just mentioned the honing of my reads.. But, I didn't play a single hand at the table so I won't be too hard on myself..

In regard to your desire to limit any tells by being consistent w/ your betting strat, I can agree to a certain extent.. But when I have premium holdings, I typically play them in a premium manner.. I have been finding success in varying my bets here and there to induce a sense of curiosity in my opponents.. I will often play pocket 8's in much the same way as I would K's, occasionally even stronger or maybe weaker.. This is often situationally dependant; variables of table dynamics, the observation of previous holdings of mine at showdown by my opponents (the more astute ones anyhow), who remains in the hand, the variation of my own play, and sometimes even based simply upon my mood.. My intention is to create confusion about my play among those seated in front of me, virtually speaking.. I truly feel that I became far too book like; and I don't mean H. W. Longfellow either.. I'm taking Dr. Suess; way too easy to read.. My premiums weren't paying, and my marginals were being eaten up.. My stretch of poor luck, which led to poor play, encouraged me to mix it up and taking a whole different line.. And so far this week, it's working pretty well..

Best of luck, brutha..!
 
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Wed Feb 16, 2011, 02:05 PM
(#7)
freddysw's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 179
BronzeStar
Well that is pretty sick panicky. K-J is in his range but no way could I have put him on that hand so what can you do.

You called it when you said you could have checked behind on the turn, then just called his river bet. It would have felt sick to have let him make his straight but this idiot called your turn bet in real life not getting the right pot odds. I'd love to ask the villain what hand he put you on.

Its amazing the river gives him his best possible hand and he leads out for a weak 1/10 pot bet because he could still be beat, If you have 77 or 10-9 hes drawing dead. Why he called your turn bet I have no clue - players like this in the long run will make us money - just sucks when there bad play gets rewarded.
 
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Wed Feb 16, 2011, 09:24 PM
(#8)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
It was a little infuriating to know that my read was spot on, and the villain overplayed his hand, and got rewarded for it. I was pretty tilted for about an hour afterward, but I know I've got to focus on what I did wrong. My turn play was questionable but correct, and my river play was just wrong. Gotta improve if I want to win!
 
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Thu Feb 17, 2011, 04:32 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Same point about your flop raise "to price him out of a draw" as in your last post. He's got 3-1 plus decent implied odds. And many of the drawing hands in his range on this board will be combo draws, ie. str8 draw/flush draw, or pair+draws, which are much better than just the 4-1 to complete a flush on the turn card. If you want to raise the flop it's for value, but you can raise more on such a wet board. Still on this depth of money and your equity not being spectacular vs. his range, I don't think I would raise the flop, I would just call to keep the pot small, and keep his weak made hands that are drawing thin in the pot. The bigger made hands and draws aren't going anywhere no matter what.

As played, check the turn back, don't bet. The T connects with a lot of his "made hand" range and pulls it ahead of you. Just check back and let's try to get our marginal made hand to showdown (KK is pretty marginal on this board vs. a villain showing interest). I would then call the river bet.

As played just call the river, there's just not much you're beating and it's hard to see how you're getting value from worse shoving. Just call and hope he turns over some bust or Qx and you take it down, and you're still in the tournament with a playable stack when he's got you beat.

Dave
 
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Thu Feb 17, 2011, 04:46 PM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
@ freddy, ty for the kind words.


Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
My turn play was questionable but correct,
Really? What was your plan for the hand? What were you going to do if he check-raised you? Easy fold or easy call?

Something to focus on Panicky is to have a plan for your hand. Make your commitment decision earlier in the hand and adjust accordingly. Either commit earlier in the hand here, or manage the pot and get your k's to showdown.
 

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