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Is it a "leak" when I play the hand ...

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Is it a "leak" when I play the hand ... - Mon Feb 21, 2011, 09:57 PM
(#1)
tc1228's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 29
BronzeStar
Hi, All;

I find myself in this following situation - and I rationalize it with what follows. Please set me right..

I get a small pocket pair - 3's, for instance.

The betting has been light - I get to see the flop for "cheap" - Nothing! I don't trip up...

bb was 20. "Stuff" hits the board - the betting is light - but.. there is, let's say - a bet of 120.

Sometimes, if I'm optimistic, and/or if the "gambler" in me over-rides the "tight-wad" in me, I'll say - To Heck with it! Though I haven't tripped up, and I have to assume that other player has at least paired up with one of those cards on the flop, I'm going to bet the 120, and hope to trip up!"

That's what I do....3 to 7 times out of 10, that I get a small pocket pair . .."Cuz I have a gambling streak" in me..

What can you share? "Keep it up!" ? or... "You dumb-puppy! Don't you know that you are about as likely to get struck by lightening!"?

I guess this ties in to some comments that Dave made in another thread in this forum about a guy (a real analytic-type - had graphs, tables, performance-history charts, etc!) who - even from my "level" I could see had too-lightly played his pocket-9's at the outset, with the result that he lost his hand on the river to.. KK's, or whatever. Dave, you made the observation that though part of his strategy was sound, it left open a large gap that other players could drive through - to winning hands! Your observations were: Bet more pre-flop on such a hand so as to weed out the riff-raff, and better isolate and "range" the contenders..." (I paraphrase..)

A big thrust of that lengthy - BUT VERY HELPFUL - thread was that in part, that player needed to identify more "missed opportunities" (my words, not yours) - and get into those hands - so as to broaden, or deepen the potential chip-income-sources. Make sense?

I rationalize my playing - paying into the turn - with beat small pairs - the same way - That maybe if I trip-up on the turns, that this will be another source of accelerating my chip-stack's growth.

Make sense? reflections? Guffaws? rolling-of-the-eyeballs?

Thanks,

Josh
TC1228
 
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Tue Feb 22, 2011, 10:40 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,496
(Head Trainer)
Well, your odds of spiking a set on the turn are 47 (unseen cards) to 2 (your set cards), or 23.5-1 against. This is only going to happen roughly 4.5% of the time. This is much more likely than being struck by lightening, but you may be able to even up the odds by running around outside during thunderstorms waiving swords at the sky.

If you're calling 120, you would need to win on average 2820 in profit over the long term the times you hit your set to break even. The implied odds you need to make this call are more ambiguous than this however... you need additional odds to factor in for the time you turn your set and still lose, or don't get the requisite action. And you can factor some back in your favor to account for the times the turn gets checked and you see a free river, giving you 2 cards for the price if your call instead of one.

All in all, this is a big longshot that is usually not going to be profitable to pursue, and the 120 call is leaking chips. It wouldn't be a bad call in all situations though, it's possible to be getting the odds sometimes... just most of the time it's not even close.
 
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Paying to trip up... - Tue Feb 22, 2011, 05:10 PM
(#3)
tc1228's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 29
BronzeStar
Hi, Dave;

I knew that!

No, I didn't - I just like to say it!

Thank you! It really helps the way you explained it because I can slowly start to internalize the numbers that are involved in making these determinations.

Thanks again.

Josh
TC1228
 
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So Paying to trip-up IS a leak! - Tue Feb 22, 2011, 05:38 PM
(#4)
tc1228's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 29
BronzeStar
Hi, Dave;

Well, I answered your response much the same way I play poker - without giving it some additional thought!

I realized that I didn't see immediately where you got the 2820 from. So I took out my calculator (virtually, but you know what I mean...) and divided 2820 by the first other number I saw - 47... that result, 60, didn't mean anything to me - point to anything you discussed. Then I divided 2820 by another number - 2 - but I knew the answer to that wouldn't help (I did THAT ONE in my head!).

I finally divided 2820 by 120 and, voila, I got .. 23.5.

I thought I was happy. But, then, I realized, "Wait! Dave gave me the answer! What happens when I'm on my own and he's not here to turn to?"

So now.. I'm trying to reverse your process..

3 failed permutations later..

Ok.. 23.5 X 120 = 2820.... ( Yeah... count on meto ALWAYS start at the wrong end of the hallway to find the proper doorway...!!)

Trying to "internalize" what this is (and you are!) saying...

I only have 1 shot out of 23 1/2 attempts, at having a positive outcome (i.e., making money on using this approach)... Soooo if I do this enough times to have made money ONCE (which, statistically, will take 23 1/2 attempts) AND if I spend 120 chips each time I try this, then only on the 23-and-1/2 time will I have "made" money - and done so AT THE COST OF 2820 chips.

Only if I make 2821 chips - or more - by then, will have this approach been fruitful, economic, and sensible..

Of course... If I "bang" in there with my stack - startle the villain out of his hand - it COULD PAY EVERY TIME!!...

..

but, do I want to risk it...

Ok... so.. 47 / 2 = 23.5... That is the likelihood of turning up one of the remaining two 3's... 1 out of 23 1/2 times..

I knew that.

Thanks, Dave.

I'm going to take some asprin and take a nap. I'm not used to thinking so hard.

Josh
TC1228

P.S. Hey!!.. Did it ever occur to you that I could apply this same approach to determing the likelihood of, let's say, me completing a straight with one of 4 (we hope) outstanding 10's!.. e.g., 47 / 4!! I knew that!! Did you, though? Not less than 5% likelihood, as in the primary example, but now approaching 9 - 10% likelihood! Cool! (The odds still suck, but cool - that I'm getting it now!)
 

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