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Bottom Two Pair In a Multi-Way Pot, Coordinated Board

 
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Bottom Two Pair In a Multi-Way Pot, Coordinated Board - Wed Feb 23, 2011, 01:40 PM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
So, here's a situation that gets me in trouble a lot. I'm looking for advice.

Pretty straightforward scenario: We're in a 1000-player tournament where 104 people are paid, and there are about 225 people left. The blinds are getting pretty high, and chip swings are hard (for me) to avoid. The table is pretty passive, so I've lost a lot of chips by limping into pots with marginal hands, because the pot odds justified it. Here, I'm on an upswing with about 25 big blinds. I decide that at this point, I have a hand strong enough to steal the blinds and the limp in front, but if people come along, I might still win. I get three customers, and a bad flop comes.

I flop bottom two pair, but because of the specific cards on the board, better two pairs and straights are unusually likely. I figure I need to commit to the hand anyway because it's two pair, and I need to chip up sometime. And like I said, the table had been passive. I figure any pair, any two suited cards, and any broadway combination are roughly what the villains would have as their ranges. I figure that some hands that beat me (like AA and AK) are actually not that likely because they'd have raised preflop. So I bet.

Afterwards, I calculated my equity against those ranges and came up with a little over 50%. My hand rated to be best, so I thought I was justified in betting it. When I got reshoved on, I figured I had an easy call because half my stack was already in the pot.

I feel like this was a bad situation to get my chips in, despite my holding. I feel like any of my opponents could have had me beat easily. I'm just not sure if I made a bad play or if my thought process is wrong. Should I have taken a different line or just tossed my hand? I think I was a favourite, but the situation might have been too marginal for me to play.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 4.4 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t3730)
UTG (t8350)
UTG+1 (t32768)
MP1 (t5322)
Panicky (MP2) (t11070)
CO (t23506)
Button (t15179)
SB (t3420)

Panicky's M: 11.07

Preflop: Panicky is MP2 with K, Q
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t400, 1 fold, Panicky bets t1125, CO calls t1125, 1 fold, SB calls t925, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls t725

Flop: (t5300) K, Q, A (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Panicky bets t3375, CO raises to t10000, 2 folds, Panicky calls t6520 (All-In)

Total pot: t25090

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Wed Feb 23, 2011 at 03:18 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 23, 2011, 02:59 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I flop bottom two pair, but because of the specific cards on the board, better two pairs and straights are unusually likely. I figure I need to commit to the hand anyway because it's two pair, and I need to chip up sometime. And like I said, the table had been passive. I figure any pair, any two suited cards, and any broadway combination are roughly what the villains would have as their ranges.
Hi Panicky,

My first comment is stop leaking chips by limping in a lot. Frequent limping is definitely a leak.

About the part I quoted, it sounds like you're ranging them based on their preflop calling range (and would they really call a raise pre with this type of range? All of them? Work on more specific reads). When you're considering going with this flop after you bet and get raised, the relevant range isn't what the player called with pre but now it's what range they're willing to play for your stack with. It's tough to speculate with no read, but you ARE the preflop raiser and preflop raisers who make solid flop c-bets tend to connect with AKQ flops. So I'm inciined to think he's going to be pretty strong here usually. AK or AQ are not out of the question (although not so much AA as that he probably does reraise pre). So is JT based on the range you assigned pre. So is AJ/AT (top pair + gut shot), QcJc, QcTc. Possibly some naked flush draws too, but even those have decent equity against you.

Committing half your stack and folding 2 pair on the flop is probably not tenable. But it also seems like this is a really bad spot as you note. Given that there are a lot of pair+draw combos in his range I think you simply have to bite the bullet and get the monies in at the decision point. But you shouldn't really be in this position to begin with. Your preflop raise sizing didn't really adjust for a limper, and with the dynamics as you stated that there were lots of frequent callers, just passing KQo on a 27.5bb stack pre is ok too. If you raise more pre you have a much easier commitment decision on the flop, although I think you have to go with this, with all the 1 pair combo hands he can have to play for your stack here folding 2 pair would be a mistake.
 
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Wed Feb 23, 2011, 03:29 PM
(#3)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Well Langolier just owned when it comes to responding to your question, so I'm just going to make an educated guess at the villians hand looking at the hand history. I want to say JTo. I think you were beat on the flop. I don't see AQ or AK because big stack in position would probably have reraised you.

That or he had QcJc....
 
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Wed Feb 23, 2011, 03:38 PM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Thanks for the post Dave. I suppose I did get myself in trouble preflop by not really predicting what I was getting myself into and preparing myself for the flop, before I got there. I'm still wondering about the limping part though.

The reason I was limping a lot was because of cases where I'd have hands like Q7s in the cutoff, and three people would limp in front, plus there would be antes. I'd typically pass with less in the pot, but the possibility of hitting a flush or a pair and a draw, or something else that's good, would seem like a lot to pass up. I know that chronic limping is a leak, but I find myself doing it a lot at really limpy tables, and I'm not sure what to do with those okay-but-not-good hands. Also, I actually have a very hard time managing 20-30BB stacks, especially when the table's a mixed bag of stack depth. Shorter or deeper than that and it's pretty easy. I'm just not sure of what to do in these weird preflop situations.
 
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Wed Feb 23, 2011, 03:55 PM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
It's not a good idea to make mistakes yourself as a reaction to others making mistakes. Bleeding chips by limping in hopes of spiking a monster flop with mediocre hands (that could still be second best) just isn't a good idea. The issue isn't really pot odds, even if they look nice.

We are talking about MTT's remember though. Limping isn't great in cash games either, but the reasoning is a bit different.
 

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