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These are the descisions...........

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These are the descisions........... - Mon Feb 28, 2011, 11:26 PM
(#1)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Well I'm sure that if it blows up in his face,we'll be dissecting Dreams descision to play today come tomorrow. For myself,going back and remembering what happened in September I'm struck by the irony of freddy possibly being the one who will take advantage of the door being opened a crack (or maybe cast fully ajar?).

But in reality most players every month are looking at a somewhat more mundane,but quite possibly for them just as crucial descision.............

At what point should I shut it down. When does the risk of playing outweigh the reward by a large enough margin that it's more prudent to sit it out. For a newer player who is teetering between active and Whitestar every month a $3 cash in PSO can be enough to secure an active month if played intelligently (and with a little luck) on the rings. The difference between say the $5 and $15 cash can give a starting player enough of a window to start a small and conservative excursion into trying to grind their roll up. And for many it's not even a money thing if they are Whitestar and trying to learn,the sense of accomplishment,of knowing that they CAN actually achieve something here---that can be the nudge that launches them on their way.

And as many of us have figured out,PSO is unique in that one faulty descision on the last couple of days can torpedo a whole month's worth of effort in one fell swoop. That's the particular cruelty that PSO can impart,why the "it's only a freeroll" smonkeys will never understand why the more serious-minded players do what we do and feel what we feel about PSO. It's one thing that I think does'nt get mentioned enough (at all?) when what we can learn from PSO gets mentioned---how to make descisions under pressure. The "it's only a freeroll" crowd simply don't get that when you have invested what it takes to make a run at something worthwhile in YOUR eyes here,and it can all come down to one call/fold descision at the end of the month.....well folks you ask me that's pretty good training for moving on to those type of descisions in the cash game world. Yes you may not be risking any of YOUR money,but the emotional investment of playing it hard for a month here,and now being up against the reality that THIS hand,THIS descision,could make all that effort worth it or dash it all away in the next 10 seconds (or however much clock you have left,lol).

I faced such a descision tonight about registering or not for the last PSO of the month. I basically washed in my 2 earlier PSO's today and was sitting in the $5 range,16 spots away from the $15 range and it was getting ready to go under 200 runners left in the 8PM PSO and I was still in it but down to 5 hands worth of antes left (blinds had just blanked me). I was playing every hand like gold as I figured that I was on my way to enough points to get to around 1790ish points which should give me about 15-20 slots of cover with one PSO to go (going by what the leaderboard looked like at the time,don't look now it's doing it's usual last day of the month Chinese Arithmetic thing). So I decided that with alot of peeps I would need to jump ahead of me and an ITM in the last almost definitely not being enough to do it that I would sit out the 10 PM EST PSO and take what I have. So the very first hand after I make my descision I get AKs on the button and shove my last 505 chips. SB shoves,BB folds and SB turns over A9o. Hand holds and I'm alive and 5-6 spots on the wrong side of the money bubble,so a shot. Two hands later and Hijack calls,then I shove from Cut-off with AQo. Blinds fold,Hijack comes with KQo (had me mega covered). Hand blanks through and I'm home free for a cash.

And cursing myself for not registering in the 10PM PSO,as now I would be looking at plenty of cover behind me,and a very reasonable chance that one last cash would get me to $30. All in the space of 3 hands,maybe 4 minutes,my outlook on whether or not I should play the 10PM was completely 180'ed. Unfortunately it was too late to do anything about it.

THAT is the type of descision that is being played out here all up and down the leaderboard every month,not just what goes on at the very top. And given how it can be applicable as a teaching point into a sort of BR management/game selection paradigm it is what,again,can make PSO such a good teaching tool for so many. Everytime I think it's time to give up on this league it manages to show me another reason to give it another chance. That's staying power folks.

At least in my book. Love to hear some of your experiences and thoughts here..........

Good luck to all and Congrats to everyone who achieved a goal (or 2,even better ) this month,or even came up short but learned some valuable lessons along the way.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Mon Feb 28, 2011 at 11:30 PM..
 
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Mon Feb 28, 2011, 11:30 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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and at the rate i'm going.... may be on wrong side for not playing... lol.
 
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. - Mon Feb 28, 2011, 11:43 PM
(#3)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,284
I lack the stamina to take a run at the leaderboard, I just like to get a few bucks every month and keep my rating up. It's amazing how much the rankings can change in a day or two thogh.

Good luck!!
 
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Mon Feb 28, 2011, 11:51 PM
(#4)
FarrahnsMom's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 242
dreams78 finished the last tourny of feb 297 out of 1414 pos or neg im not sure
 
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Mon Feb 28, 2011, 11:58 PM
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Darkman61's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,225
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That might just get him the 0.03 points he needs. Crazy
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 12:02 AM
(#6)
FarrahnsMom's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 242
ya the closest month yet
 
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cool - Tue Mar 01, 2011, 12:48 AM
(#7)
effsea's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,609
Great post mox, like always,

PSO is a hard nut to crack, some under estimate the game here, as for when to play or not,
tough question,

As for me, it was a mental decision,

Saturday l'm sitting with 1863 in points, only 3 players in the 1900's

do l go for it or just take the $50 and run, eff it, took the $50

now some will say why, l just did not have it in me to play anymore,

as for dreams, don't think he did his research, 1941 wins it,

he should of sat.

anyways once again mox, great post
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 12:54 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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I should have done what you did eff. Was at 1868 three times, but tried to go for top 10... and got a variance run each time. Now might not get $50.
Really want the extra $20... pay for a few Fri night drunk tanks with it.
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 01:05 AM
(#9)
shirshot's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 665
The second your afraid to play you should not play.
The fear in your mind will sabotage your playing ability.
You are your own worse enemy.
Your mind controls you!
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 02:25 AM
(#10)
Yawni's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 161
From someone at the low end of the leaderboard, I decided not to play unless I had to. The last game I played was the Sunday 10:00am, ranked at 923. I only have the option to play the 10pm Sunday and the 8 and 10 pm Monday. I've had such a bad month I felt I had more of a chance of knocking myself out of the top 1000 then of being moved out. So I've been watching the games and today they've seemed to take forever to finish. By the time the 10pm rolled around only the 3:00 had been updated (rank 962) so I still had some wiggle room so didn't register. Now at 959 after the 5:30 update.

My goal has been to do better than the previous month so I missed that goal, down about 100 points from January.

I also decided not to be active for the next month. I can only play 1 to 2 tourneys a day so the chances of getting to top positions is slim at this stage and I don't have much time to play much else. I'm pretty good at the folding and waiting for good hands and getting blinded out to the point I don't know what to play anymore. Other than the league games I've only played in Poncho Bowies whitestar games, the 2 $.25 SNG sponsored by Ronin Harper (out early in 1 and finished 4th in the other) and the Regional COOP (finished 12th).

So for March, I'll get active, play some of the Women League and a few PSO games, the pso warmups,some of the SNGs, do the live training sessions and just generally try other things. Then in April I'll be back to the PSO league. If it works I may just be an every other monther.

Good luck to all and congratuations
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 03:06 AM
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figures... I'm the bubble. Well, learned one from that and will make sure it won't happen again.
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 03:25 AM
(#12)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Ouch. JDean and I were talking about whether we thought maybe you should dial up the last one and felt it was a flip. That's the thing about the board being so wiggy the last day to,hard to make a really solid call.

Damn man was hoping you would squeak through.
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 08:22 AM
(#13)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
Last month I decided to play 1 game a week and play every draw like I had the nuts! if it werent fo r the donks holding me back..... and the 30 peeps talking in my head I may have made 3 bux so for now I am just content to take down every drunk tank KO game
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 10:09 AM
(#14)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
Nice post... nice discussion.

I too was very surprised to see Dreams had played again instead of sitting on what looked a safe lead.

For myself, I was safely in the $30 range with a few days to go. I was tempted to push to get up to $50 (in the end one more cash would have just about done it), but didn't have time to play many, so it would be tough to make up any ground I might lose along the way. The cutoff between $30 and $15 was moving up scarily fast behind me too.

Yesterday I tried to work out the maximum points I could definitely afford to lose and still stay in the $30 range, and how deep I would have to go to avoid that loss. If it turned out I only needed to survive to the first break (half the field), I would play, confident that at worst I could comfortably stall my way there even if I risked and lost a small hand or two along the way, and still probably have enough chips left to have a chance of going deeper. Instead the numbers said I needed to get to the 80 minute (1/3 of the field) mark. This is where self doubt came in. I didn't trust myself to play positively enough to make it to this point with a decent chip stack - not with the fear of elimination and needless loss of prizemoney hanging over me. So I chickened out! I took the conservative approach, watched the leaderboard for entertainment rather than with anxiety, and concentrated on finishing picking up the qualifying 20 VPP points so I could go through it all again next month.

Based on my play through the month (1826 points from 28 tourneys), I made the wrong decision, because I was making the money more often than I was crashing out early. But still being a tyro at this game, and knowing myself as I do, I just did not trust myself to play my best game in the circumstances. Bad decision and an opportunity lost? Or sensible decision based on self-knowledge? I'm still not certain, and there is no absolute answer. I just know that analysing these sort of situations and making the best decision I can, with incomplete information, is exactly what poker is about, on or off the table, and learning to improve at this is exactly why I am here.

These are decisions we all have to make, whatever level we are at. I really think though that making good decisions in these sort of situations is a big part in what makes a successful player. When and where to play. When not to play. Bankroll decisions. Being able to grind out results (or points) when that is called for. Sometimes you have to move out of your comfort zone, or go against your initial instinct, to go where the best value is. And that can mean sitting it out and just following the leaderboard updates, ready to play if need be. I know I am still too cautious, both at the tables sometimes, and in these decisions. It's my natural inclination. But I am improving. The more I learn and play, the more I read and share experiences with folk like those on these forums, the better I will be able to decide this sort of stuff rationally, with both eyes on the max expected value.

Good luck to all in March.
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 10:10 AM
(#15)
Freddy Dub1's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 157
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I had a tough decision last night...I had grinded my way into 3rd place and i looked at the leaderboard. I was pretty sure i was good in 3rd and didnt want to risk having a bad pso in the 10pm. If i would have played and cashed i would have won. A few months ago i woulda played,but i have grown in my poker thinking and maturity and decided to take the better odds.I wanted to be known as one of the best here in PSO and decided my actions would prove better than any words. "May the flop be with you" FD1
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 10:28 AM
(#16)
Ace King 61's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 421
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Well I see that dreams played the last one and squeaked out just enough for the win. Talking about drama! Congrats all.
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 11:11 AM
(#17)
JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Ouch. JDean and I were talking about whether we thought maybe you should dial up the last one and felt it was a flip. That's the thing about the board being so wiggy the last day to,hard to make a really solid call.

Damn man was hoping you would squeak through.
I seriously thought about playing the last one, but gut told me not to play in that I had a bad game coming... and any negative number, no matter how low, would sink me. Knew I could be in trouble when I dropped 7 places in the next to last update at midnight. If I had dropped 7 instead of 3-3-4 in the updates before it, I'd have played for sure.

Well, I guess I can look at it this way.... I have made back almost half of what I lost in those 50-50's this last week (+$8.68). Guess I'll just have to get it back the hard way.

Does mean I'm out for blood this month though..... which will start for me tomorrow.
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 01:02 PM
(#18)
Darkman61's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freddy Dub1 View Post
I had a tough decision last night...I had grinded my way into 3rd place and i looked at the leaderboard. I was pretty sure i was good in 3rd and didnt want to risk having a bad pso in the 10pm. If i would have played and cashed i would have won. A few months ago i woulda played,but i have grown in my poker thinking and maturity and decided to take the better odds.I wanted to be known as one of the best here in PSO and decided my actions would prove better than any words. "May the flop be with you" FD1
Good to see that you're now mixing up that self confidence with a bit of realism. I suspect you'll now be a top 10 challenger for many months to come.
 
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Tue Mar 01, 2011, 02:19 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman61 View Post
good to see that you're now mixing up that self confidence with a bit of realism. I suspect you'll now be a top 10 challenger for many months to come.
exactly.
 

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