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Odds: next card/turn/river

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Odds: next card/turn/river - Sun Mar 06, 2011, 06:25 PM
(#1)
Hopkins5's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 3
BronzeStar
Gday,

I have been going over the Core Course and it's well useful.
I am a bit stuck on the odds section though:

* The probability of hitting a draw on the next card is:
[number of outs] x 2 What is meant by next card? Can this be used for both the turn and river?

* The probability of hitting a draw on the turn and/or river is:
[number of outs] x 4 Does this apply to the turn and river as a combination? Surely if it was either it would turn into the above probability.


One more thing,

"You have a gutshot straight draw (four outs) on the flop and there is $25 in the pot. Your opponent bets $5. There is now $30 in the pot ($25 + $5), and it's $5 to call. Your pot odds are therefore 6:1. However, according to the table the odds of winning the hand are 10:1. You don't have the right pot odds and should therefore fold."

Depending on your answer of the above questions, I worked out the odds as 100:16 for turn and/or river, or, 100:8 for next card. Am I doing something wrong? Is the Odds Table a round figure table?

Excuse the amateur questions but these are the only things that have stumped me so far so I'm keen to work them out.

Thank you

TH
 
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Sun Mar 06, 2011, 07:18 PM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hopkins5 View Post
Gday,

I have been going over the Core Course and it's well useful.
I am a bit stuck on the odds section though:

* The probability of hitting a draw on the next card is:
[number of outs] x 2 What is meant by next card? Can this be used for both the turn and river?

* The probability of hitting a draw on the turn and/or river is:
[number of outs] x 4 Does this apply to the turn and river as a combination? Surely if it was either it would turn into the above probability.


One more thing,

"You have a gutshot straight draw (four outs) on the flop and there is $25 in the pot. Your opponent bets $5. There is now $30 in the pot ($25 + $5), and it's $5 to call. Your pot odds are therefore 6:1. However, according to the table the odds of winning the hand are 10:1. You don't have the right pot odds and should therefore fold."

Depending on your answer of the above questions, I worked out the odds as 100:16 for turn and/or river, or, 100:8 for next card. Am I doing something wrong? Is the Odds Table a round figure table?

Excuse the amateur questions but these are the only things that have stumped me so far so I'm keen to work them out.

Thank you

TH
For either the turn or river independently you multiply you outs by 2 to get the approximate probability of hitting.

For BOTH the turn and river together you multiply your outs by 4 to get the approximate probability of hitting.

As you know there are 52 cards in the deck. After the flop you have seen 5 cards (2 in your hand and 3 on the board), which leaves 47 unknown cards so the odds against hitting are 43:4. Since the turn reveals one more card the odds become 42:4 to see the river.
 
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Sun Mar 06, 2011, 07:25 PM
(#3)
Hopkins5's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 3
BronzeStar
Chur
 
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poker odds - Wed Mar 16, 2011, 07:11 AM
(#4)
paulgregory6's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 2
BronzeStar
I'm posting a website I found useful although if you do an internet search ther is a lot of help out there. http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/po...calculator.htm, and http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/te...babilities.htm.
Now for a little advice. I'm a bit of a novice but since some waslearned the hard way so I think it might be useful. What is said in the pstars courses does not hold true except as a general guide. Much of effective play and strategy is situational which can be learned from experience and knowledge from reading books on the subject.
If you want to earn money educate yourself by reading. The top professionals read on the subject to improve their game.
.Plan on spending a certain amount of money to learn from experience. Even then, always keep i mind that only 5% of players win consistently enough to make it profitable. Most of the few who do keep it in the black would earn more money flipping burgers if you consider the gain on an hourly basis.
Secondly: most people will lose more than they win during the early stages. I learned it is much cheaper to play the cheap tournaments and tables until I started winning on a more consistent basis. When you it is time to move up make sure you have built up a bankroll. As you move up the play will probably be tougher. You will go thru another learning (and losing period)
 
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Wed Mar 16, 2011, 09:47 AM
(#5)
EA2USN's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 176
BronzeStar
I created an excel spread sheet that calculates the odds and the required pot size to make a call depending on the number of outs you think you have and the bet to call.

Keep in mind the number of out is not always your true outs some of them my not really be outs for you.

If you or anyone out there is interested pm me with an email address and I will send you the spreadsheet.

I used it quite a bit when I 1st started playing a lot on line but now I never refer to it except to refresh my memory every so often.
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 12:35 PM
(#6)
murdoch84's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 3
Im having the same problem understanding this. In what situation would you use "odds flop to turn" odds? and when would you use the "odds flop to river" odds?
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 01:36 PM
(#7)
gsxr5221's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 13
WhiteStar
If on the flop you are on a flush draw or straight draw those are good times to calculate for the flop to river probability. For example if you are open ended on the flop you know there are 8 cards that can help you make your straight so your looking at 32% of hitting that straight by/on the river.
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 02:00 PM
(#8)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by murdoch84 View Post
Im having the same problem understanding this. In what situation would you use "odds flop to turn" odds? and when would you use the "odds flop to river" odds?
IMO, "Flop to River" odds only matter when you expect to get to the river without paying off a bet on the turn.
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 02:05 PM
(#9)
murdoch84's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 3
So you would only use "flop to river" in an all in situation?
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 02:27 PM
(#10)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Or a situation where the villian is not likely to fire a second barrel on the turn.
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 04:16 PM
(#11)
badbuddie99's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 25
BronzeStar
When calculating your outs from the flop should you take into acount any back door draws where you need to hit runner runner if so how would you calculate for the these because obviously the 2% rule wouldn't apply as thy are only partiual outs
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 04:20 PM
(#12)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Backdoor draws to a flush or strait are worth about 1 - 1.5 outs typically.
 

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