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How do I use online stats to rate people?

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How do I use online stats to rate people? - Mon Mar 07, 2011, 08:47 AM
(#1)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
There are so many people talking about "looking up" a players stats when playing against them, yet no one speaks about what they are looking for or for that matter how to interpret what they are seeing!
I will attempt to offer a few insights for you to better understand what you are seeing.
The first thing peeps tend to look for is ROI ( return on investment ), Profit, ITM ( in the money ) percentage and buy in level and then maybe # of games played.

Profit can be very misleading. If you just look at this number and don't understand what caused this or how we got here you may be giving someone too much credit. For instance, I played XYZ game in December and back to back took 4th and 13th in this mtt for some good cash! So my profit is $XXX a positive number. On the surface you might think this is a good player! But you would be wrong! If I look at the 2010 yearly results the same player is in the hole! If I look at 2009 the same thing.
What we need to understand about profit is how does it relate to volume and to ITM and roi.

ROI is the next thing, which some sites won't display unless you are "opted in" which is such a pain. Anyway the fact I do math for a living means I can find the ROI just have to work for it. Once again this can be misleading unless it used viewed together with the ITM% and buy in avg etc and of course a positive roi can result from a recnt big cash so dig deeper. In addition just becasue someone has negative roi is not totally accurate. They could be a solid player just running into variance.

ITM is interesting too but many peeps I find have an inflated itm% because the DON's of fifty fifties if you will. Dig into it and find out more.

To me though one of the key stats is finish position. What % of the time is this player going deep in a tourney and over what volume of tournies? If we have a high itm yet we are a losing roi then it is likely because we dont go deep in tournies we play. Min cashers are losing players in the long run!

Gidee Up!

 
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Mon Mar 07, 2011, 09:13 AM
(#2)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
This is something I dont do enough of.... maybe because I tend to play smaller buyin games..I know the last time I played a higher game $4.40 I checked up and 2 of the regs had a combined $100 grand in winnings... but they were also playing 20+ tables at a time so I could exploit them a little bit.
Honu is right look at the ROI but dont get married to it, check out all the stats and also see how many tables they are playing... if they are playing a lot of tables and they make a big bet chances are they have the nuts
 
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Mon Mar 07, 2011, 09:30 AM
(#3)
sharkatack89's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 536
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
There are so many people talking about "looking up" a players stats when playing against them, yet no one speaks about what they are looking for or for that matter how to interpret what they are seeing!
I will attempt to offer a few insights for you to better understand what you are seeing.
The first thing peeps tend to look for is ROI ( return on investment ), Profit, ITM ( in the money ) percentage and buy in level and then maybe # of games played.

Profit can be very misleading. If you just look at this number and don't understand what caused this or how we got here you may be giving someone too much credit. For instance, I played XYZ game in December and back to back took 4th and 13th in this mtt for some good cash! So my profit is $XXX a positive number. On the surface you might think this is a good player! But you would be wrong! If I look at the 2010 yearly results the same player is in the hole! If I look at 2009 the same thing.
What we need to understand about profit is how does it relate to volume and to ITM and roi.

ROI is the next thing, which some sites won't display unless you are "opted in" which is such a pain. Anyway the fact I do math for a living means I can find the ROI just have to work for it. Once again this can be misleading unless it used viewed together with the ITM% and buy in avg etc and of course a positive roi can result from a recnt big cash so dig deeper. In addition just becasue someone has negative roi is not totally accurate. They could be a solid player just running into variance.

ITM is interesting too but many peeps I find have an inflated itm% because the DON's of fifty fifties if you will. Dig into it and find out more.

To me though one of the key stats is finish position. What % of the time is this player going deep in a tourney and over what volume of tournies? If we have a high itm yet we are a losing roi then it is likely because we dont go deep in tournies we play. Min cashers are losing players in the long run!

Gidee Up!


Nice Post Cowboy. Thanks for the insight. How bout doing one for the stats on PT3. I've got the basic knowledge of what they mean. Just trying to decipher what %'s are good stats in a tourney? How many hands before you can really use the numbers? And also how the %'s equate differently in a cash game?

You're very right about min cashes. I've been changing up my style of play for MTT's.

1. I stay within my bankroll rules. 1 to 2%
-This helps me play for deep wins as opposed to min cashes. When the money u put up is 10% of your roll, you are more likely to min cash as it is a big chuck of your roll. (at least I would)
-Also helps when you are on the bad end of variance. It can be a long, long dry spell.

2. Try to stay consistent in the daily line up of tourneys I play.
-I play about 2 to 3 cash MTT's everyday along w/ my PSO Skill line up.
-$3.30 10K Guarantee, $11 40K Guarantee, and the $2.75 12.5K Guarantee.
-I'm usually in these if not tied up w/ other RL duties.
-I won't register for one if I'm running deep in the previous ones that day.

3. Play at least 2 hours a day of cash ring games. (This is something I have to work on. I use Cash Ring, but, other can use SnG, DoN's, or 50/50's.)
-You have to have a lower variance lineup somewhere in your poker if you are going to continue to grow your bankroll.

4. Set realistic Bankroll goals.
-$2K by the end of March. ( will cash out anything above $2k, unless something really good happens. ie winning the 40K guarantee'd this month)
-$3K by the end of April
-$4K by the end of May
-$6K by the end of June
-$8K by the end of July
-$10K by the end of August.

This should allow me to cash out for some much needed $$ along the way to my goal. After August, I hope to keep a standing Bankroll of about 12K to 15K. This will allow me to add the Sunday Million to my regular line up. Good Luck all -shark
 
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???? - Mon Mar 07, 2011, 09:36 AM
(#4)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
Hope you achieve your goal Shark-!! You will be able to buy ALOT of chickens--wow--- gl .monk...
 
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Mon Mar 07, 2011, 02:55 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
ROI is a very misleading stat, as the sample size required for an accurate measurement of a player's skill is much larger than people think in MTT's. The variance in large field tournaments is HUGE.

Good post cowboy.
 
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Mon Mar 07, 2011, 07:38 PM
(#6)
daveysride's Avatar
Since: May 2010
Posts: 9
BronzeStar
this is why i dig this forum great stuff guys.thanks alot for this info in this post and others.keep it up
 
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Mon Mar 07, 2011, 07:46 PM
(#7)
JT_Sooooted's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,407
BronzeStar
Anyone that doesn't experience what Cowboy has to say is only cheating themselves. This guy runs shadows with EXPLANATION of actions. This alone will turn your game around. Then just chatting will enlighten you as a player. Get to VENT, check his stuff out and become a better player. Sure you can do it on your own. However, this guy asks nothing to educate you. Nor does anyone else over there. Sure you can pay for this information. BUT WHY?

My 2 cents............Which can turn into $2 Million...................


Well Done Cowboy!!!


GLA
JT
 

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