Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Poker Education & Beginners Questions / Old Hand Analysis Section /

6-Max Cash: Two Pair Vs. Suspicious Betting Pattern

 
Old
Default
6-Max Cash: Two Pair Vs. Suspicious Betting Pattern - Fri Mar 11, 2011, 04:34 PM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
So, at the moment I'm trying the 10c/25c tables. Just testing the waters while I can afford it. Let's hope I make money, and don't lose it.

Anyway, in this hand I was new to the table, against a Gold Star player (in the SB) who was at five other tables. I raised my button with a weakish king, and got flatted by the small blind. The flop gives me top pair, and the other two cards are a board underpair. I check behind on the flop, because I think that if I'm behind, I'm going to have to put money in on the turn or river to find out, and I don't want to bloat the pot now if I'm behind. Also, my opponent is unlikely to have hit, so I'm anticipating a raise/fold if I bet, which isn't good. Anyway, the flop goes check-check.

The turn isn't really a dangerous card. It might have helped the villain, but probably not. He bets, and I call. Simple. Then the river comes, and it's another non-danger card. Again, I think I'm ahead, but the villain bets a second time. Here, I get suspicious (and take about 30 seconds to ponder). What would the villain be checking, then barreling twice with? A medium pair like 99 or JJ? Very possibly. But I don't see why the villain wouldn't give me credit for possibly having a king, and just check the river. A king makes sense, but in that case, I can't see a decent player calling preflop OOP with weaker than K9. Maybe if it was suited, but I'm not liking the kings I'm up against. The only other real option I can think of is trips, which makes perfect sense, and I'm losing to it. My cursor hovered over the call button for quite awhile (and I really wanted to call), but I folded.

Was that good, or was it bad? I know I'm new to the $25 scene, so I don't know these players all that well yet, and I didn't feel as confident in my reasoning as I usually do, but I still think it was pretty solid, and that I made the +1 right choice. Please analyze away, and let me know what you think.

 
Old
Default
Fri Mar 11, 2011, 08:55 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
El Bumpo.
 
Old
Default
Fri Mar 11, 2011, 10:48 PM
(#3)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
The way the hand was played I don't think you can possibly really get a good feel of where you stand. Because your preflop raise was so small he could have anything. He could have a 6, A10, any K, or a medium pair. I doubt he has 1010, JJ, or QQ though, would expect a reraise preflop. Theres no way to know, kind of have to guess with the way the hand played out. I'm betting he had K10 or KJ, he could have been worried he was kicked on the flop. Then after you checked either the 10 improved his hand or he felt better about his J kicker. Equal chance he shows 56 or 67 though that is the problem...
 
Old
Default
Fri Mar 11, 2011, 11:15 PM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I don't think my open bet sizing had any effect on the hand. The fact that I was only flatted preflop had some significance, but I don't think the villain's range would have been much wider, if at all, because I bet small. Just my impression.
 
Old
Default
Sat Mar 12, 2011, 12:37 AM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I don't think my open bet sizing had any effect on the hand. The fact that I was only flatted preflop had some significance, but I don't think the villain's range would have been much wider, if at all, because I bet small. Just my impression.
It makes a big difference. 67s is calling from SB every time with your roughly 2 x BB raise, but is folding every time to a 4 x BB raise. Same exact result for K10s and KJs. Thanks to implied odds they are easy calls out of position in SB for 2 x BB, but bad calls for 4 x BB. I'm not saying you should have raised 4 x BB, just trying to make the point that your preflop raise size will effect their calling range.
 
Old
Default
?? - Sat Mar 12, 2011, 08:05 AM
(#6)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
Well, I dont think i am folding there- and this is why- You hit your top - great flop for you- im hardly ever putting villain on a 6 there- he flat called your c-bet, and then "donk" bet into you on the turn, makes me believe he was floating the flop- with intention of stealing the pot on the river if its a blank- and it was- probably putting you on AQ AJ or Ax s-- my point being here- at a 6- max table- if i open a pot with K9- and hit my top on a pretty safe board- i believe i have the best hand- most of the time- add into that he gave you 2.6-1 to call that river-- ima calling- if he has the 6, so be it- you have info--

P.S- as to the ?? of knowing where you are at in the hand-by flatting his "donk" turn bet- you showed huge weakness-imo-- perhaps you should have raised there- if he repops you- maybe then you can lay it down--
 
Old
Default
Sat Mar 12, 2011, 12:18 PM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
To clarify, I did not c-bet. I checked the flop.

By checking the flop, I may have shown weakness. But I do not think calling the turn bet was weak. I should have shown enough strength to get the guy to slow down on the river if he didn't have it (especially if he was on six tables at once; multitablers tend to be straightforward).

Raising the turn would have been an interesting idea. It's worth thinking about. It's not the line I usually take (because I like getting value out of both the turn and river when I can), but in this case, where I only wanted to get one more bet out of the guy on the turn, it would have worked. I suppose if he 4bet me, then I've got my answer about whether or not I'm ahead. But it does cost me more money than the way I played, which isn't good. It's an interesting idea, thanks monk.
 
Old
Default
?? - Sat Mar 12, 2011, 12:25 PM
(#8)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
srry - i dnt notice the check- so my ?? is why not c-bet-? you are giving him a free card- and you do have kiker issues-- and yw--monk..

ps- if i were the villain- and you checked that flop- i donk bet into you on the turn - and you repop me- well then i thinkin u sloplayed the trip 6 and i givin up my K- if i had 1-- i still believe you got robbed here tho--lolo

pss- i love this hand-- think about this also- why is he betting the river- you called a pot sized turn bet- so obv. you have a piece of that board- there is no draw u could be floating- and ure not calling hopin to hit an ace- so again if i him- ima checkin that river- if i have the 6- and raisin your river bet- only way he takes that pot if he got air is to bet at it- now i am sure you got robbed- !!-- jmo-- gl monk..

Last edited by monkeyskunk4; Sat Mar 12, 2011 at 12:38 PM.. Reason: ps
 
Old
Default
Sat Mar 12, 2011, 01:56 PM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I didn't bet the flop because I don't think it would have accomplished anything. If I bet the flop, he might have folded if he had nothing, which means I would have picked up the pot and nothing more. Since I have a high pair and the board was dry, I wasn't afraid of being outdrawn on the turn. If the villain had a piece of the board, or even if they wanted to run a bluff, I would have had no defense if they reraised my c-bet. I would have had to fold because my hand strength would not have been able to stand up to an over-the-top raise.

The check was designed to keep the pot small, while giving the villain a chance to make a mistake. I figured they might have been robbing me on the turn, which is why I called, but I don't think they would have tried robbing me twice. Of course, I might be wrong there. It's also very possible they had a weaker hand than mine. I don't think that I can justify saying that I was ahead of the villain's range though, so if I did call, it would have been a curiosity call, and nothing more.

Is Dave around? I'd really like to know what he thinks. I'm sure he runs into scenarios like this all the time.
 
Old
Default
?? - Sat Mar 12, 2011, 02:09 PM
(#10)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
i really dont get the plan here- sounds like you are tryin to trap- by not c-betting- the flop- board is very dry- turn brick- river brick- unless u put him on exactly K 10-- and if u can do that - well are u single??-
 
Old
Default
Sat Mar 12, 2011, 02:22 PM
(#11)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I suppose I am trapping to some degree. But, I think betting the flop here would be weak, since my hand isn't really strong, so if the villain picks this one hand to not believe my c-bet (which is conceivable; the board is dry), then I can't call a raise. I'm under-repping my hand to get a bet on the turn (I want the guy to try and rob me if he has nothing), because if I bet the flop, I'm repping a hand, and either the guy's going to fold (in which case I don't get the extra bet), or he'll likely raise (in which case I get nothing). I don't see the guy calling the flop very often, unless he's a bit stationy.

I didn't put the guy on KT, but the river barrel mad me think that the guy had two pair+. Probably better than KT. I ranged the guy, and figured that I was more likely than not to be behind, because someone robbing me would have bet the turn, then checked the river (unless they caught something). At least, that's my belief.
 
Old
Default
Sat Mar 12, 2011, 08:13 PM
(#12)
DLeviathan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 501
BronzeStar
If you call the turn you must also call the river when the river card is unlikely to have changed the outcome (does not complete any draw, is not an over card). Why did you call the turn if you plan to fold to a normal size river bet on a relative blank? Either play at as a blind steal that failed (fold on the turn), or play as a hand where you are inducing bluffs or value bets from weaker holdings (like mid pocket pairs). Calling the turn and folding the river is mixing the two, and that is not winning poker.
 
Old
Default
Sat Mar 12, 2011, 10:05 PM
(#13)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
So you're saying that you make a habit of double-barrel bluffing the pre-flop raiser, D? I've never seen that before (that I remember) from a good player. This guy was 6-tabling and a Gold Star, so I feel safe in making the assumption that he's decent. Why would he barrel twice if I'm supposed to call the river if I have a hand? I don't understand why he would bluff into me that much. I'm never folding the flop in this scenario, for obvious reasons. I do not believe that checking the flop should set my plan for the rest of the hand in stone. Calling the river makes sense if he's stealing, but stealing doesn't make sense to me.
 
Old
Default
Sat Mar 12, 2011, 10:50 PM
(#14)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
So you're saying that you make a habit of double-barrel bluffing the pre-flop raiser, D? I've never seen that before (that I remember) from a good player. This guy was 6-tabling and a Gold Star, so I feel safe in making the assumption that he's decent. Why would he barrel twice if I'm supposed to call the river if I have a hand? I don't understand why he would bluff into me that much. I'm never folding the flop in this scenario, for obvious reasons. I do not believe that checking the flop should set my plan for the rest of the hand in stone. Calling the river makes sense if he's stealing, but stealing doesn't make sense to me.
LOL man you are way too defensive. You ask for peoples input so we gave it. We ar just telling you our thoughts about the hand, no one is attacking you. Leviathan made a good point and nobodoy said anything about anyone bluffing. If the villian was bluffing has nothing to do with the point he was making.
 
Old
Default
Sat Mar 12, 2011, 11:11 PM
(#15)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I'm not trying to be defensive, and I apologize if my comments are coming across as overly aggressive (although come to think of it, I've had three hands analyzed today in one way or another, all of which received generally bad reviews, and I just got off of being slandered by multiple players about my ROI [which is negative, to be fair], so I admit I'm a little tilted right now).

D did say that if I interpreted the turn bet as a steal, that I'm essentially not allowed to change my mind, though. And I think that there is flawed logic in that. I'm trying to understand the how's and why's of my less-than-good plays, and in this case, I still don't.
 
Old
Default
Sun Mar 13, 2011, 10:16 AM
(#16)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
I think he was saying that if you thought you were good on the turn, then the 'relatively blank' river card shouldn't have changed that. If you didn't think you were good on the turn you should have folded. A valid point. I understand what you are saying though, that you thought you were good on the turn, but his river bet made you think twice about that. That is not a bad thing, you should often take a moment and really think things through before calling someones big river bet, as it often is not a bluff. The problem in this hand is they way things were played up to the river it made it very hard for you to know where you stood. That is not good. I would say though, since you got yourself in a spot where you can't be sure where you stand, and the villian is making a strong river bet, it is often a good idea to just lay it down and fight another day. The pot wasn't that big anyways. I doubt that guy was double barrel bluffing over that small of a pot. Thing is, he might of thought he had the best hand, but really have been second best to your K that you concealed somewhat.
 
Old
Default
Thu Mar 17, 2011, 11:40 AM
(#17)
DLeviathan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 501
BronzeStar
123

Last edited by DLeviathan; Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 11:51 AM.. Reason: prematurely posted
 
Old
Default
Thu Mar 17, 2011, 11:49 AM
(#18)
DLeviathan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 501
BronzeStar
sb doesn't need to have any pure bluffs in his range to make calling the river getting 3-2 the correct play. As long as he bets any pair you have good equity.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

72 games 0.005 secs 14,400 games/sec

Board: Kd 6h 6d 5h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.306% 40.28% 09.03% 29 6.50 { Ks9d }
Hand 1: 50.694% 41.67% 09.03% 30 6.50 { JJ-55, K2s+, QTs, JTs, T9s, KTo+ }
 
Old
Default
Thu Mar 17, 2011, 02:27 PM
(#19)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Nice thread, sorry I missed it earlier.

Preflop steal is standard. Personally I prefer this raise sizing to 4x, because if we get 3b we really can't call with K9, so we might as well make our steals cheaper. Plus if people talk themselves into playing a raised pot out of position with stuff like 7 high because they think the price is good, I'm ok with that.

Flop check back is good imo. Certainly we don't want to always check back when we flop top pair like this, but here this is a pretty good spot for it. We keep the pot small and induce action from weaker hands on later streets (bluffs, semi-bluffs, and worse made hands). If we c-bet this flop, are we betting for value or as a bluff? A c-bet would absolutely not be a bluff as no better hands will fold to it. Can we get value from worse? It seems suspect. Very villain dependant obviously but I think we get at most 1 street of value from worse hands when we c-bet the flop. Plus this is a decent spot to balance vs. another reg. When the villain sees we can have top pair when we check back the flop as the preflop raiser, he'll be less inclined to get out of line with us in future hands where we actually might be welcoming free cards. And finally a free card to villain is not really a big concern here, there's only 1 overcard that can come and flush draws are a relatively small part of his over all range.

Turn call is standard.

River we need to call. We've under-repped our hand and induced value bets from worse and bluffs. The turn brought a 2nd flush draw. He could easily be semi-bluffing one of the many draws (both flush and straight), and now be bluffing the river. He might think we picked up a draw on the turn and be bluffing us out, or value betting a hand like TT. Sure he can have KQ or something slightly better, or have flopped really strong. Over all though we've taken a line that will induce, and under repped our hand at the same time, so we will easily be good often enough here to make calling correct. Plus his bet sizing doesn't indicate a value bet necessarily, I'd expect around $3 not $2 on a value line.

This guy is trying to read our hand. We took a line that will induce bluffs and we've under-repped our hand. Call.
 
Old
Default
Thu Mar 17, 2011, 03:13 PM
(#20)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeyskunk4 View Post
P.S- as to the ?? of knowing where you are at in the hand-by flatting his "donk" turn bet- you showed huge weakness-imo-- perhaps you should have raised there- if he repops you- maybe then you can lay it down--
Don't like raising the turn here. The reason is, he can 3b us with a range of both value hands and semi-bluffs, and put is in a really awkward spot that we don't want to be in.

If your plan is to fold to a 3b, then raising is bad because we can simply call, and call down the river, for roughly the same price as raising the turn, but now we get our hand to showdown AND we get it there vs. a wider range since he'll have some bluffs in it too. Since our hand has showdown value, this is much better than raise/folding.

If our hand were strong enough to welcome a 3b, then we should raise his turn bet. If we had air (and have a super easy fold to a 3b) then we can also raise the turn bet. If we'll throw up when we get 3b, then we should probably not raise in the first place and save our lunch.

Also I would submit that raising to "see where we're at" is a bad concept because it doesn't really work. Not suggesting you were saying this is why we should raise monkey, but a lot of people think this way. If the villain calls our raise, where are we? IDK. Maybe he's calling with KQ. Maybe he's got a draw. Maybe he's slowplaying trips. Maybe he's got K7s. What if the villain 3b's our raise. Again, IDK. It doesn't necessarily mean we're beat, right? It's a bad sign, but he could be semi-bluffing a draw for all we know. And now we have a real problem... we've put 2 more bets in, are facing another big bet (vs. a re-raise) or another betting round at least (the river) and still don't really know how good or bad our hand strength is relative to his range.

If we want to see where we're at for certain, for the price of only 2 more bets and no difficult decisions, we can just call down. Our hand strength seems about right for this course of action.

Dave
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com