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Shouche Bag in the Warm Up

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Shouche Bag in the Warm Up - Sun Mar 13, 2011, 01:09 PM
(#1)
JT_Sooooted's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,407
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Hope you choke on them chips luckbox!!!!

JT
 
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Sun Mar 13, 2011, 02:18 PM
(#2)
roadster808's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 68
I've readjusted my calling range to a 3-bet preflop and/or 3-bet shove call pre flop to AA-QQ & AK. Nothing more. JJ seems to get cracked way too often for it to be a 3-bet shove calling hand. You're dominated by 2 overs if they come, and in this case they did. It's probably a close race, I don't have pokerstove right now to see the numbers. And to get rivered an Ace, that hurts. You kind of get the feeling that he was on a steal, but at the same time, he had a hand to back himself up. Sorry man. Looks like you were running pretty well, too.
 
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Sun Mar 13, 2011, 04:46 PM
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JT_Sooooted's Avatar
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Posts: 1,407
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I guess if you all want. I can put my tourney life on the line with a 3 bet shove with at best a drawing hand. If we all want to stop respecting the UTG raise because we have AK off. So be it. Consider it DONE! I have the money and will be calling to run everyone down.

GL
JT
 
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Sun Mar 13, 2011, 05:31 PM
(#4)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
The only two hands you are a big dog to with AK are AA & KK. You are flipping against QQ & lower pairs and dominate smaller aces.

Let say you are open raising range from EP (TT+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ = 6.5%), AK is ahead of that range 56:44. If your 3-bet shove calling range is TT+, AK then the 3 bettor has ~45% fold equity but is a 60:40 dog when called.

As I see it neither player made a mistake. Sometimes poker happens.
 
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Sun Mar 13, 2011, 05:38 PM
(#5)
JT_Sooooted's Avatar
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Posts: 1,407
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As I stated.............I create lists and this guy whom had played 1 PSO game this month is on top of it.

GAME ON!

JT
 
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Sun Mar 13, 2011, 05:41 PM
(#6)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
I believe two_isles to be a gal not a guy.
 
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Sun Mar 13, 2011, 05:46 PM
(#7)
JT_Sooooted's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,407
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My apologizes.............could you all put a M of F on our avatars so I don't make this mistake again?

Thx
JT
 
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Sun Mar 13, 2011, 06:33 PM
(#8)
roadster808's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by JT_Sooooted View Post
I guess if you all want. I can put my tourney life on the line with a 3 bet shove with at best a drawing hand. If we all want to stop respecting the UTG raise because we have AK off. So be it. Consider it DONE! I have the money and will be calling to run everyone down.

GL
JT
I'm not trying to be condescending or anything, JT. TrumpinJoe confirmed my thoughts as the race being pretty close. For me 60/40 isn't total dominance on either end. Think of it this way. What if you had the AK and said villian had JJ? Wouldn't you have opened in a similar fashion and, considering you call the all-in, although in my opinion probably would have folded AKo to a shove, have been the one to river a miracle card? While AK is technically a drawing hand, it is a very strong starting hand. There are many that do overvalue it, as do I sometimes. But I guess he felt that AK was strong enough to race with. I mean, maniac play to say the least, and I feel for you. Like I said, you seemed to have been running very well for that tourney. Hope you start running hot.

Last edited by roadster808; Sun Mar 13, 2011 at 06:39 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 13, 2011, 06:37 PM
(#9)
JT_Sooooted's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,407
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Nope, I used to fold AK to an UTG raiser. However, my game is opened up now! I used to fold pre when I knew I was behind. Game On!!!!!

GLA
JT
 
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Sun Mar 13, 2011, 07:10 PM
(#10)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Allow me to complete my analysis with a complete EV calculation. Here are my assumptions:
Fold Equity = 50%
Win % = 20%
Lose % = 30% (this corresponds to being a 60:40 dog 1/2 the time)

Fold = win 6200 * 50% FE = 3100
Win = 25574 (23374 + blinds +antes) * 20% = 5115
Lose = 23374 * 30% = 7012

EV = 3100 + 5115 - 7102 = 1202

So this move by two_isles has a small +ev (5% of chip stack)
 

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