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What To Do Once You've Flopped Your Set

 
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What To Do Once You've Flopped Your Set - Sat Mar 19, 2011, 12:19 PM
(#1)
tomrankin51's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
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I have a sneaky feeling that I should have gotten away from this hand. The reasons I didn't are that I genuinely thought I was ahead, and that I could only be beaten by a hand holding a Ten (which is what happened).

What I would like to know is, once I have flopped the set I called for what should I look for in order to profit? Is this the type of situation, or are dry flops more advantageous?

Also, if someone could explain how you can stay ahead when essentially set mining without the stack to support it then that would be helpful. I never feel comfortable doing so in an MTT.

(Table Background - typical loose Turbo table with at least one all in every other hand from various players).

 
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Sat Mar 19, 2011, 03:43 PM
(#2)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
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That was a really bad flop to hit your set. Those guys were clearly limping with a huge range of hands, so it was definitely possible someone had J10 for the straight. Even so, I think the all-in was good. If you run into a straight you still have a decent amount of outs. You got into this situation by being passive/weak, but once the flop hit I don't think you can fold, and a call would have been much worse than a push there. You could have played preflop differently maybe... I probably would have played the same way as you though so I'm not really sure what to say about that.
 
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Sat Mar 19, 2011, 03:44 PM
(#3)
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You played the flop perfectly. You got it all in as a HUGE favorite to triple up! There were 10 cards that could beat you (4 sixes, 3 jacks, 3 tens) but even if someone hits a straight you have 12 outs to a full house or better ...You triple up here about 62% of the time. Even if you just take down the pot without a fight, it's good for you. No, there's nothing wrong with moving all in there. It's just a lame beat. You'll have plenty of those. That A9 call after you pushed and the Q10 reshoved was pretty horrendous though.

Now, I'm not sure if set mining was the best play here... Your stacks are not really deep enough for it. When the short stack pushed and got called by the others, you may have thought about pushing yourself to isolate. You need deep stacks to set mine because even though you'll flop your set about 1 of 8 times, there are still three main things that can happen when you do:

1) Flop set, win huge pot
2) Flop set, win small pot
3) Flop set, lose huge pot

Because of this 8 to 1 isn't close to good enough implied odds, and you want a lot better--at least 20 to 1 (and depending on the opponent it varies) 110 x 20 >1405 (your stack), so you need to depend on having a couple of loose players stay around, because a double up does not pay you enough. This is why I might lean toward pushing preflop.
 
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Sat Mar 19, 2011, 05:42 PM
(#4)
tomrankin51's Avatar
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Yes, this is the point I was making. For me, pocket pairs like this are really hard to play in an MTT because the way I feel about it is that set mining isn't profitable due to the relative short stacks. In an MTT I feel you mostly have to raise anything you're going to play, but it's hard to raise with a pair like TT and under, get called and then see overcards because you know you're immediately behind.

Though saying that, a raise wouldn't have pushed anyone out of this hand so iso plays were really out of the question.

I think the lesson learnt is that in MTT's, less calling is more profitable especially with marginal hands due to the stack sizes.

Thanks for the feedback both it was very helpful.

Last edited by tomrankin51; Sat Mar 19, 2011 at 06:10 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 20, 2011, 01:35 AM
(#5)
oriholic's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tomrankin51 View Post
In an MTT I feel you mostly have to raise anything you're going to play, but it's hard to raise with a pair like TT and under, get called and then see overcards because you know you're immediately behind.
The problem is that you DON'T KNOW whether you're ahead or behind. It's often a way ahead/way behind situation that is very difficult to play.

Consider this: You call a raise on the button with 88, the flop Is 9 Q 4. The preflop raiser bets out. Are you ahead or behind? Did the preflop raiser have AK, AQ or AJ? Pocket 10s, 9s or 7s? A steal like Q9 suited or JT suited or 76 suited? Sure there are two overcards out there, but how many hands in your opponent's range really beat you? Depending on your opponent's style and range he may have total air here, and be betting because he thinks/knows you'll fold anything less than top pair good kicker. You're actually ahead here a lot of the time. You might consider calling all the way down unless you see an ace or king. It all depends on the player. People like to play aces, especially big ones, so an ace is usually enough to drop your medium pairs.

As for that hand. Don't let results trick you. Folding would have been a huge error. Yeah, you lost, but most of the time you win a huge pot. Good play.
 
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?? - Sun Mar 20, 2011, 08:56 AM
(#6)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
im with you Tom- set mining in from the hi-jack- with 3 limpers is horrible -- once the BB raises to 160- and gets 3 callers- you have to muck your 88- and your only out 50- and you certainly didnt have to push with a donk bet of 200 from EP1, and a call- ahead of you on that board-as played MAYBE call/peel and re-evaluate turn- but too many hands have you beat- or will draw out on you--imo- fold pre-- gl.. monk
 
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Sun Mar 20, 2011, 01:39 PM
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Grindtyme's Avatar
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The was I read this hand, and then the texture of the board, as well as how you described your table you have 2 potential choices, you jam pre-flop to cut down on the cards you have to fade/hands you will be up against or you fold.

Set mining with such a small stack is never going to be profitable, I mean what are we, 13% to flop a set, with your stack size and what you called we can't ever consider that +ev.

Me, personally, I never jam that flop with that texture and a bunch of retards in a donkament who will think their 10 or 6 will hit huge, forget about the flush draw, you had to fade over almost half the deck, and you didn't.

Bad decision pre flop got you into this mess, leak in my humble opinion.

Stephen
 
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Mon Mar 21, 2011, 02:52 AM
(#8)
tomrankin51's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grindtyme View Post
leak in my humble opinion.
Its not a leak because it's not my usual play. I agree though, I should have put in a raise as I would normally.
 
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?? - Mon Mar 21, 2011, 07:23 AM
(#9)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
duplicate------

Last edited by monkeyskunk4; Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 07:28 AM.. Reason: duplicate
 
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Mon Mar 21, 2011, 08:07 AM
(#10)
ketchup143's Avatar
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really? u guys r gonna fold b/c someone without a stack makes a 3x raise? its 2.2 more bbs to try and flop a set. yes it's true that u need 12.5%-13% equity to make a profitable call, but as it stands he's getting 6.5 to 1 on a call preflop, which is 15.3%, so it's pretty close. also, shoving on the flop is not bad b/c ur making the draws pay to hit their hand. it doesn't matter if u r playing someone who u know isn't going to fold, u still need to be shoving with by far the best hand. finally, if these guys r donk enough to risk their whole stack with an open ended straight draw, what makes u think they will fold preflop to a shove? ur risking everything to win a small pot or lose a big one.
 
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Mon Mar 21, 2011, 11:48 AM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ketchup143 View Post
really? u guys r gonna fold b/c someone without a stack makes a 3x raise? its 2.2 more bbs to try and flop a set. yes it's true that u need 12.5%-13% equity to make a profitable call, but as it stands he's getting 6.5 to 1 on a call preflop, which is 15.3%, so it's pretty close. also, shoving on the flop is not bad b/c ur making the draws pay to hit their hand. it doesn't matter if u r playing someone who u know isn't going to fold, u still need to be shoving with by far the best hand. finally, if these guys r donk enough to risk their whole stack with an open ended straight draw, what makes u think they will fold preflop to a shove? ur risking everything to win a small pot or lose a big one.
+1

Even by the 20-1 implied odds criteria, calling to set mine is seriously +EV. We have to call 110 more so we need to have a realistic expectation of recovering 2200 to meet the 20-1 stated here (personally I think 15-1 in position is enough, but I won't quible with 20-1 as we seem to have that). The pot currently contains 715 so we need to win roughly another 1500 on top of that, on average. After the call we'll have 1300 behind, and 3 donks in the pot who cover us? I think our expectation is reasonable. Even if only 1 donk gets all in with us and we get no action from anyone else, that's still 18-1 received.

Folding this post flop when we hit our set would be a massive mistake Tom, don't be results oriented.

Just calling is also a massive mistake... There's lots of bad turn cards that can come off, any 5, 6, T, J, or club are really bad. Not that they'll pull ahead of you (they might or might not) but when they don't beat you they will likely kill your action. Guys that will monkey it off with A9 on the flop won't get it in with you on a bad turn card.

I think you played this one fine. IF we have fold equity there's a lot to be said for back-raise jamming pre to isolate the shorty, but if we're getting called by all the donks anyway the play is marginal at best... without a realistic expectation of isolating successfully, we should only be jamming for pure value, not sure how much of that we have vs. multiple random overcard callers.
 
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Mon Mar 21, 2011, 12:22 PM
(#12)
EA2USN's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier;264593

I think you played this one fine. [B
IF [/B]we have fold equity there's a lot to be said for back-raise jamming pre to isolate the shorty, but if we're getting called by all the donks anyway the play is marginal at best... without a realistic expectation of isolating successfully, we should only be jamming for pure value, not sure how much of that we have vs. multiple random overcard callers.
Agree with this and I myself would of just smooth called the flop. with stack size to pot size ratio's what they are here u cant expect people to fold to your all in.

Where as just calling the flop assuming no one raise behind you leaves the opportunity to fold when the turn hit an opened str8 drawer with a 10 in their hand.
 
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Mon Mar 21, 2011, 12:43 PM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by EA2USN View Post
Where as just calling the flop assuming no one raise behind you leaves the opportunity to fold when the turn hit an opened str8 drawer with a 10 in their hand.
The problem with this is, you don't know if they have a ten in their hand. The board is so wet there's a lot of draws that can get there, and any of them completes you won't know what to do. You rate to be a big equity favorite on this flop, get the money in now is much better than building a big pot and folding to a scare card later with this strong of a hand strength.
 
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Mon Mar 21, 2011, 01:21 PM
(#14)
EA2USN's Avatar
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Posts: 176
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roughly 1250 in pot hero has 1295 remaining. You shove your giving 3-1 odds to callers in this type of donkfest you will get called by players who do not have correct odds to call and u cant bet enough to get them to go away. Check Check draw heavy flop you got middle set. with a possibility of a JT not being unlikely with three others in the pot. I think you have to check fold the turn to any situation where you are calling a bet and getting less than 5-1 to any club, J T 6 or 5. If one of those do hit the board you would have 10 outs (1eight, 3nines, 3sevens, and 3what ever is the turn card) Keep your chips, with 1295 you still have lots of play left and wait for another opportunity. Shove on the turn if no scare card comes.

Just my opinion

Last edited by EA2USN; Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 01:44 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 21, 2011, 01:54 PM
(#15)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
If we're shoving a pot sized bet, that gives a caller 2-1, not 3-1. And we don't mind them calling their straight draws. Our equity is very good vs. draws. JT is possible, but it is not likely, wide preflop ranges mean combinatorically JT is a very small part of their range (likewise for 56 which is also possible).

Stack protection is an important part of a sound MTT plan, but chip accumulation is also essential. Flopping a very strong hand, putting 1/3rd of our stack in, and folding, is generally not going to be advantageous to us.

Consider this quote from former World Champ and PStars Pro Greg Raymer: "People who fold too often in big pots don't seem to win too many tournaments, in my experience."
 
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Mon Mar 21, 2011, 02:51 PM
(#16)
tomrankin51's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 242
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So...I've either played this amazing or terrible lol, however I think the general consensus was that I did nothing wrong.

Though opinion is divided between calling and raising pre-flop. Like I said I feel uncomfortable set mining in an MTT, so an argument for it having stacks this size would be helpful.
 

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