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odds outs vs equity

 
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odds outs vs equity - Mon Mar 21, 2011, 02:37 PM
(#1)
phidelity's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 5
hello

so im having difficulty with a situation i encountered.

im past the rebuy stage of a $20 mtt and everyone has tightened up .. my vpip for the tourney is about 21% and i have had huge hands early and showed down some winners. but since the rebuy ended i have tightened right up. i pick up 10 9 spades mid position and decide to bet out (3x bb) with the full intent of laying it down if i get reraised. i get a call from a tightish player 1 before the cutoff , the button calls (very loose) and the bb calls (new to the table)

blinds are 50 -100 and im about 5 k, everyone else is deep stacked too. pot is now 1350.
the board comes Q spades, J spades, and 9 clubs.

bb checks , i c bet about $ 600 the Tag ships in behind and he's got me out stacked everyone else folds . i figure hes got to have one of about 4 hands - overpair to the board with a spade AA/KK but i think i would have been 3 bet pre from these hands , qq or jj and hit a set or AK spades.

in the heat of the moment i think it through and its costing me 4200 ish to call into a pot of 6000 plus. and im counting my outs - if hes slowplayed preflop aa or kk looking for action, im in good shape. if hes hit a set im an underdog with 15 outs to improve to the best hand and against ak spades im ahead now but slight underdog with outs.

i make the call thinking, given the money and the pot i cant really lay down. he flips over ak spades and the turn comes j hearts ( not great cause now hes picked up q's to add to his outs otr but ...) river comes A diamonds.

heres the question when i look at the equity calculator my equity against all those hands is good except the sets.

against ak suited my equity is 56 %
against aa 63%
against kk 56%
against qq, jj 45%

but when i look at my outs vs same hands im behind the ones that i have more outs but better equity to the hands that have more outs to me???

ak suited 9 outs k, 8, 9 s but he has 12 outs
aa with spade 15 outs
kk w spade 14 outs
vs a set 14 outs 8, k, spades

and run those through the odds and outs calculator hes the favourite with ak suited and a set. How do i resolve these two stats in terms of when its profitable to make the call vs folding.

now don't tell me to fold that hand mid position - its something i do almost religiously but given how the dynamic of the table changed once the rebuy was over i decided to try to steal. but once the flop came i dont think i can fold profitably long term in that situation. also i had a plan to let the hand go depending on board and action. any help appreciated.

thanks
phi

Last edited by phidelity; Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 02:43 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 21, 2011, 03:56 PM
(#2)
Astro705's Avatar
Astro705
(Odelay)
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 461
Interesting question and I look forward to a reply from TheLangolier and others.

Math aside - I think the qq and jj probably three bet you pre, and your statement that AA KK lilely three bet you pre is valid as well, so I tend to take those out of the equation.

AKspades is a pretty tight range to put him on and if that is where you have him - then no spade is good for you, neither is any Ace.

How ever I do think you can add hands like Ax and Kx of spades to his range,
as well as any Ace 10, Ace Queen, and especially if the Ace was the Ace of spades, KQ, K10 with the King being a spade to the possible hands.

A made straight charging the max for you to draw to a flush.

Calling 4200 to win 6750 does not feel right to me here with bottom pair and your redraws potentially meaningless.

let the math people speak.

That thinking might explain my 67 on the new mtt quiz

Last edited by Astro705; Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 04:00 PM.. Reason: grammer
 
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Mon Mar 21, 2011, 04:26 PM
(#3)
phidelity's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 5
Quote:
Originally Posted by Astro705 View Post

Math aside - I think the qq and jj probably three bet you pre, and your statement that AA KK lilely three bet you pre is valid as well, so I tend to take those out of the equation.

AKspades is a pretty tight range to put him on and if that is where you have him - then no spade is good for you, neither is any Ace.

How ever I do think you can add hands like Ax and Kx of spades to his range,
as well as any Ace 10, Ace Queen, and especially if the Ace was the Ace of spades, KQ, K10 with the King being a spade to the possible hands.

A made straight charging the max for you to draw to a flush.

Calling 4200 to win 6750 does not feel right to me here with bottom pair and your redraws potentially meaningless.

let the math people speak.

That thinking might explain my 67 on the new mtt quiz
yeah i had those ranges (that make a straight in his range) and his A x spades, a spades and 10x and k x spades crossed my mind as well - i should have listed in my OP. i was calculating my worst case scenario and which hands im behind against and being confused about the outs vs equity calculations.

he had been pretty tight so i semi discounted them (thinking he could be on those if hes making a play at me) is he calling a rag suited or k 10 off with an early position raise, with a vpip of 18% , third stack at 80 x bb ... possibly? the lag on the button i would have had those hands in his range and the bb given the action ... sure.



knowing what i do now my post flop play was not ideal ... if i ship, he's still borderline, hes getting 2:1 on his money and hes 2:1 to hit the flush, if he calls there and if i check then its an easy steal for him .... obviously this is a good example of why its difficult to play suited connecters when your early to act post flop. i was thinking the button was going to give me action ( who was a maniac at 45% vpip) and very aggressive post flop if he's calling or raising there i am very tempted to call or reraise.

addition to my OP - in the heat of the decision i realize now that i calculated the money wrong - i was thinking im getting 2.5 to one on my money, not 1.5 to which is what in part is what i based my call on. i did the math wrong, confusing two points - adding my stack to the pot and his ship which artificially inflated the pot (which i wouldn't have had the whole piece of). so its a bad call but it still raises the original question regarding equity vs outs and resolving when 1 should over rule the other as i work out other situations.

sorry if the post is fragmented i've been writing this in a short time frame.

thanks for the response

Last edited by phidelity; Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 05:55 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 21, 2011, 07:31 PM
(#4)
phidelity's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 5
in short - aside from my total mistake in calculating the money - given the situation what are the correct pot odds and correct equity to mathematically make that call profitably.

i was thinking 2.5 - 3.0 :1 is correct or close but when i was checking the odds vs equity i am not unclear
 
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Tue Mar 22, 2011, 02:54 AM
(#5)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
With a hand with that much equity you will have to call any raise he makes. You are too deep to shove. Make it easy on yourself and bet bigger. A potsize bet would be more likely to take the pot down now and it would also make calling a shove a snap since you are always getting the right odds to call here.

You have a pair with open ended straight flush draw. Against anything reasonable but a set you have spades, kings, eights, nines and tens as outs. That's up to 9+3+3+2+3=20 outs! You definitely have more equity than AK spades. Against almost any hand you're the favorite to win this pot.

Also, AK actually has fewer "outs" than you do because you already have a pair. Any non-spade 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 is a winning card for you despite not improving your hand, since it does not improve AK either. Now you don't actually have an additional 18 outs, because you need runner runner blanks, but these are all good cards and contribute to your equity.
 
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??? - Tue Mar 22, 2011, 05:34 AM
(#6)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
You have a ton of outs thats for sure- but, only 2 of them are to the nuts- and most of your other outs are discounted by the villains range- can you post the hand history ?? gl monk..
 
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Tue Mar 22, 2011, 12:32 PM
(#7)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeyskunk4 View Post
You have a ton of outs thats for sure- but, only 2 of them are to the nuts- and most of your other outs are discounted by the villains range- can you post the hand history ?? gl monk..
What do you mean? Villain can only have one hand at a time. For instance, against AK suited, the spades aren't outs...but you're already ahead. Your draws don't have to be for the nuts to win. You just need the better hand between the two of you. Against AA, any 9 or 10 is good enough, against KK, a 10 would be bad, but you still have 9s and straight/flush outs. Against sets you need a straight or a flush. Against AQ you have a ton of outs. What's the worst case scenario, K10? Still got 8 flush cards. Is this even in his range?
 
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?? - Tue Mar 22, 2011, 01:10 PM
(#8)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
above==== if u put AK s- like u said in his range- ya all spade outs gone- AKo- and the 10 s are gone-why not qj - he has a better 2 pair even if u hit a 10-and then he has redraws on the river-- all i am sayin is that many of of his outs give the villain a better hand- because he is holding the bottom end of both the str8 and flush draws- and the weaker of any 2 pair that he hasnt made yet-also- on that board- i am still not thrilled- even if i do turn trip 9- thats all-gl- monk..

Last edited by monkeyskunk4; Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 01:30 PM.. Reason: thoughts--
 
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Tue Mar 22, 2011, 01:30 PM
(#9)
phidelity's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 5
yes a bigger bet post flop is a much better play given the situation ... then AK suited may fold.. and if not its an easier decision if i get reraised. either that or check it down and fold to a big raise. i thought that a value bet looked huge but i just gave him the correct equity to make that play.

anyway i look a played the hand poorly.

BTW cant post the hand - it was on a different site.

thanks for the feedback guys.
 

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