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6-Max Cash: Reading Into Bet Sizing To Narrow My Opponent's Range

 
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6-Max Cash: Reading Into Bet Sizing To Narrow My Opponent's Range - Sun Mar 27, 2011, 04:28 AM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Hey guys. Here's a brand-new hand. Let's see how I played it.

So, I had a good day today and decided to treat myself to a short session at a $50 table, just to have fun and hopefully learn a few new things about my game. I wasn't new to the table when this hand happened, but the villain was. I didn't have any massive reads, but the table seemed to be generally soft.

I decided to open here in UTG+1. I don't particularly like ATo, but I felt I could play it profitably at this table. I got flat called by one person who had position on me, and we saw a flop.

The flop gave me second pair, but the board was fairly coordinated. Against one opponent, I figured I should c-bet my hand (since I did make a pair, so it wasn't really a bluff), but I ended up facing a very large raise. I didn't range my opponent quite yet, but I had a gut feeling that my hand was strong at this point. I figured my opponent might play a jack this way, but two things gave me the in-game impression that my opponent didn't have a jack:

1) The raise was to over three times my bet. That made me think the guy just wanted me to go away, and didn't want me to call. If the guy flopped top pair, he should want to string me along for awhile longer.

2) The raise was to an even dollar amount. In the more stressful moments of a hand, I find that that's often an indicator of a bluff. I was getting the impression that my opponent felt the pressure of being bet at by the preflop aggressor while holding an unmade hand, and decided to make a spazzy bet.

I decided to call the 3bet, and reevaluate my situation on the turn. The turn ended up being an ace. It was a glorious card for me, because I was pretty sure that two pair was best right now, and I was starting to look for ways to get max value out of my holding. Here, I ranged my opponent, and I decided that two hands made sense for my opponent to hold: aces and jacks (which would be very bad for me; it did make some sense that a spazzy opponent would make a massive flop raise with top/top if they thought the wet board was a problem), and the other hand was a flush draw. The hand that I thought made up the bulk of my opponent's range at this point was Ax of spades, because I didn't think the guy would have 3bet the flop with any weaker than a draw to the nuts. Straight draws and sets were also possible, but they didn't feel likely to me. (Edit: In retrospect, KQ would also have made some sense, because it was a drawing hand on the flop, and there would be no reason not to bet it on the turn. I didn't recognize that at the time. Whoops.)

Since I was putting my opponent on top pair with the nut flush draw, I thought that he would definitely bet if checked to. I decided that I was only getting one more bet out of the guy, so I checked with the intent to check-raise all-in to price him out of a flush draw. I figured that since he picked up the pair, he might make a spazzy call and actually pay me off, but I was really just looking for a fold. And I was kind of hoping that I had read the situation well and wasn't about to be shown a much better hand than mine, but I was confident in my read.

What do you think of my play, and especially my read? Does it make any sense, or did I just get caught up in wishful thinking? Thanks for your responses, guys!

PokerStars Game #59871138913: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50 USD) - 2011/03/26 23:52:27 PT [2011/03/27 2:52:27 ET]
Table 'Peiroos V' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: CHK_CHK_BET ($50.45 in chips)
Seat 2: cmorecrds ($87.65 in chips)
Seat 3: joshil3 ($110.05 in chips)
Seat 4: PanickyPoker ($63.90 in chips)
Seat 5: ItsWayneman ($60.60 in chips)
Seat 6: Daybo1986 ($13.20 in chips)
CHK_CHK_BET: posts small blind $0.25
cmorecrds: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PanickyPoker [Ac Th]
joshil3: folds
PanickyPoker: raises $0.80 to $1.30
ItsWayneman: calls $1.30
Daybo1986: folds
CHK_CHK_BET: folds
cmorecrds: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jh 3s Ts] (Pot: $3.35)
PanickyPoker: bets $1.90
ItsWayneman: raises $4.10 to $6
PanickyPoker: calls $4.10
*** TURN *** [Jh 3s Ts] [Ah] (Pot: $15.35)
PanickyPoker: checks
ItsWayneman: bets $9
PanickyPoker: raises $47.60 to $56.60 and is all-in

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sun Mar 27, 2011 at 05:20 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 02:27 PM
(#2)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
I put a lot of thought into this hand and I have a few thoughts about it. I think since the villain was new to the table, he hasn't seen you c-bet a lot so he probably isn't making any moves on you. That means he likes the flop, but doesn't necessarily mean he has a hand yet. I think generally someone would raise with AJ, JT, 33, or KQs/KQo. It is not likely that he has JJ or TT or AK because he did not reraise you preflop. Some people will smooth call with JJ or TT preflop like that, but if he had a set it is more likely 33.

He continued betting the turn so he probably wasn't afraid of the A. This makes me think his hand is weighted towards AJ or KQ. This is why I don't really like your unusual reraise shove on the turn. Your a huge dog to AJ, KQ, JJ, TT, 33. There is a small but very real chance your huge raise could scare off everything but KQ, but more often than not I don't think he can fold. You should only have pushed there with KQ yourself, and he might think that as well. My point is, the only worse hand that could consider calling you is JT, but a half decent player is going to fold JT on the turn. So, you lose value from JT, you get destroyed by KQ, AJ, JJ, TT, 33 if they call, and you gain some value if you scare off KQ, AJ, JJ, TT, 33 with your strange but powerful all-in reraise. I feel overall your big reraise is going to have negative expected value. You lose a lot to many hands in the villain's range, and gain a little if he folds a better hand or JT. In my opinion a check/call on turn would have been better. See the river and reevalute. If you don't improve and he makes a big bit, you are probably behind.

Last edited by RockerguyAA; Sun Mar 27, 2011 at 02:30 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 02:50 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Thanks for the input, Rocker. It looks like your impression is that the guy was raising made hands on the flop, and was only continuing with made hands on the turn. I see one problem with your reasoning, though. It looks like you are giving the guy 100% credibility for having a hand. You've listed off every reasonable hand he could have called with preflop that became a made hand on the flop. You seem to be pretty sure that not only is he not bluffing, but he's rarely semi-bluffing the flop, and never semi-bluffing the turn.

I think 98 is just as likely a hand as KQ, because I do believe that this guy would 100% bet the turn with just a draw, if he thought that the ace scared me. I don't think anyone at any limit plays as honestly as you give this guy credit for. I might have underestimated his potential for having a made hand (I actually didn't even consider the possibility that the guy turned a straight ), but it was entirely because I had an in-game read on the guy telling me he was almost certainly on a draw. AJ makes some sense, but making a spazzy raise with top/top when he could just let me bluff off more of my stack on the turn makes no sense. I really thought that he would have a draw here almost 100% of the time, and usually not the KQ straight draw (although I guess it did make up a part of his range).

Do you think my read makes any sense, Rocker? It really did guide my thinking for this hand a lot. If not for the 3bet size on the flop, I would have acted very differently in this hand. I'd like to know if you think my reading skills seem good, or if my reasoning was off.
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 04:09 PM
(#4)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
98 makes sense too I didn't really think about that. Likely had the flush draw along with it. I was thinking most likely AJ or KQ and KQ isn't a made hand either
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 05:13 PM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Yeah, I thought your bold section was weird, because you were (very pessimistically ) splitting the bulk of his range between one made hand and one drawing hand, both of which were crushing me. I thought the bulk of his range on the flop would be one or the other, and I was leaning heavily toward draws. He didn't have KQ, but I really should have considered that specific hand. I missed it because I was tunnel-visioned on thinking he had a flush draw.

I also might have underestimated the possibility of flush and straight draw combos. That would account for the massive raise. To be fair, though, the only straight draw I should have been worried about was the KQ exactly, so I didn't screw up massively in that.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sun Mar 27, 2011 at 05:24 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 06:03 PM
(#6)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
If he had 98s or 98o the shove is still not optimal. If he has straight and flush draws he has a ton of equity in the pot and might end up stacking you. The shove puts both of you in a very marginal situation, but you did give yourself the advantage and the numbers are slightly on your side. If he just has the open end straight draw with 98o you want him to pay as much as possible to chase 8 outs. You don't want him to fold! The all-in should definitely get 98o to fold and that means less value for you. If you put him on 98o specifically a min-raise to $18 would be epic in my opinion.

I see people do this all the time. If you think someone is chasing a flush or straight draw, your goal is to make them pay, not to make them fold. You give them bad odds so that in the long run they will never come out on top (assuming you fold when they catch, which you will if you suspect they are drawing I hope!). Make them pay as much as you think they are willing to, and destroy their implied odds by folding when they hit. An exception to this would be in an extremely bloated pot. If you don't force out flush draws you will lose a lot more than normal if they catch, and it will be harder for you to fold. So in that situation shut them out.

Yeah I bet I do have a pessimistic point of view when it comes to hand analysis. I add a handfull of bad beats to my (very long) list every single session I play. My luck has been a little bit below average last couple weeks that is probably messing with my head some.
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 06:55 PM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
If he just has the open end straight draw with 98o you want him to pay as much as possible to chase 8 outs. You don't want him to fold! The all-in should definitely get 98o to fold and that means less value for you. If you put him on 98o specifically a min-raise to $18 would be epic in my opinion.
I initially thought this math was wrong, but that actually would have priced him out. The same bet would have more or less priced out the flush draw as well. I didn't think I had to bet so low.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
I see people do this all the time. If you think someone is chasing a flush or straight draw, your goal is to make them pay, not to make them fold. You give them bad odds so that in the long run they will never come out on top (assuming you fold when they catch, which you will if you suspect they are drawing I hope!). Make them pay as much as you think they are willing to, and destroy their implied odds by folding when they hit. An exception to this would be in an extremely bloated pot. If you don't force out flush draws you will lose a lot more than normal if they catch, and it will be harder for you to fold. So in that situation shut them out.
I thought that this pot was big enough to warrant taking it right there. I didn't want to play a post-flop game any longer and risk a lot of rivers freezing the action. Had a spade or some other scare card fallen, I very well might have called a value bet anyway, just because I wouldn't have been sure I was behind. I wanted to close the action, and stealing the pot was fine by me. I got my money in where I thought I was pretty sure to be ahead. That's in my books. I thought my play retained the most value to my hand, assuming my read was good. I probably should have bet lower, since no naked draw should ever have called this bet. Then again, that would have made me susceptible to a 4bet shove. I did not want to see one of those, so I think my shove was alright.

If, however, my read was correct, and my opponent had picked up a pair and the nut flush, I think that they might have seen enough equity in the hand to make the call regardless of the fact that their spade flush was priced out. How did they see my hand play out? I raised preflop, and I c-bet the flop. I could have missed and been bluffing. Then, I checked the ace, waving a white flag, then I check-raised? What would I do that with? Maybe an ace, maybe a worse flush draw, or maybe I was just representing an ace, and was trying to scare them off. I think that if I read their hand well, then I was actually making a very +EV play. If I was at least right about the draw (and not the KQ draw), then I was still making a +EV play.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sun Mar 27, 2011 at 09:43 PM..
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 11:57 PM
(#8)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Ribumpulous.
 

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