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Close, But no Cigar

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Close, But no Cigar - Sun Mar 27, 2011, 10:02 AM
(#1)
Mmmm Fish's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 705
BronzeStar
I'm done with the Milestone promotion. Thouroughly discusted with myself....again. I'm convinced the true EV is not in the money PokerStars is giving away. The EV is for the ring game sharks who get to crack the fish like me who have no business playing ring games.

Anyway, I'm not going to set the bar very high here right out of the shoot, but I will get the ball rolling.

Who in the forum will get the closeset to being dealt in one of the Milestone hands:

PokerStars Game #59883001345: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50 USD) - 2011/03/27 8:52:49 CT [2011/03/27 9:52:49 ET]
Table 'Cline IV' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: RightBetFred ($27.10 in chips)
Seat 2: distrofik ($30.20 in chips)
Seat 3: Mmmm Fish ($16.05 in chips)

Current leader is Mmmm Fish at 1345 hands from the money.
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 10:44 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I missed one by about 500.

Haven't hit one, but at least I can say I've gotten alot of VPP's and am +$$$ at them.
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 10:48 AM
(#3)
ericlee1984's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 311
BronzeStar
i was grinding out my fpp's 2 nights ago and the milestone hand i knew was close to being dealt....i was in the position that if i folded the hand was over....so i tried to time it just right.......and came 60 games past the milestone hand.....close but nope lol
 
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negative EV for me too - Sun Mar 27, 2011, 11:05 AM
(#4)
gjschiff's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 58
BronzeStar
I've been grinding the .02/.05 for two nights now and haven't hit yet......donated $4 so far over the two nights. I'm definately not a cash game player! Still going to try again today as if you hit one, it will make up for it. Those tables are tough. Was positive $$ the first night, but lost $4 last night. I'm playing super tight but had a problem twice laying down big hands when I knew I should which lost $2 each.....oh, well, back to the drawing board.
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 01:31 PM
(#5)
sharkatack89's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 536
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mmmm Fish View Post
I'm done with the Milestone promotion. Thouroughly discusted with myself....again. I'm convinced the true EV is not in the money PokerStars is giving away. The EV is for the ring game sharks who get to crack the fish like me who have no business playing ring games.

Anyway, I'm not going to set the bar very high here right out of the shoot, but I will get the ball rolling.

Who in the forum will get the closeset to being dealt in one of the Milestone hands:

PokerStars Game #59883001345: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50 USD) - 2011/03/27 8:52:49 CT [2011/03/27 9:52:49 ET]
Table 'Cline IV' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: RightBetFred ($27.10 in chips)
Seat 2: distrofik ($30.20 in chips)
Seat 3: Mmmm Fish ($16.05 in chips)

Current leader is Mmmm Fish at 1345 hands from the money.

I win fish. Took a $400+ nose bleed yesterday chasing the pipe dream. 2 stellar rewards later, and 1500 FPP's. Still down a little and don't know how close. I just didn't care if I missed. My poor money. LOL -GL to all someone hit one. Please.
 
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back in the black - Sun Mar 27, 2011, 03:06 PM
(#6)
gjschiff's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 58
BronzeStar
still in the trenches on .02/.05 nl won back my $4 - yay! was 3 away from one of the milestone hands..

During current Hold'em session you were dealt 430 hands and saw flop:
- 33 out of 54 times while in big blind (61%)
- 4 out of 52 times while in small blind (7%)
- 20 out of 324 times in other positions (6%)
- a total of 57 out of 430 (13%)
Pots won at showdown - 5 of 8 (62%)
Pots won without showdown - 30
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 03:15 PM
(#7)
Mmmm Fish's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 705
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by sharkatack89 View Post
I win fish. Took a $400+ nose bleed yesterday chasing the pipe dream. 2 stellar rewards later, and 1500 FPP's. Still down a little and don't know how close. I just didn't care if I missed. My poor money. LOL -GL to all someone hit one. Please.
Ouch.
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 06:04 PM
(#8)
IroncladMerc's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 581
with close to 50,000 tables, the chances anyone has to get dealt into a milestone hand are pretty astronomically against you.
 
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Sun Mar 27, 2011, 07:40 PM
(#9)
Mmmm Fish's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 705
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by IroncladMerc View Post
with close to 50,000 tables, the chances anyone has to get dealt into a milestone hand are pretty astronomically against you.
The best way to get an approximation of the odds is to pull up your hand history and use the average of the differences between the hands. Number will be lower for the six-max tables than it is for the nine-player tables. Number is usually lower for the mico stakes than the higher stakes.

But you are right, odds are usually in the tens of thousands to 1. Still, there is a much better chance that a PSO player is going to show up in a Milestone hand than at the final table of the today's Sunday Storm.
 

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